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Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook


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[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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Just now, GriffeySwag said:

Anyone worried about the fact that he contemplated retirement?

 

Would be pretty cool if there was a study on player stats the season after it was reported they were contemplating retirement and if there was a significant drop off or not.

 

I'm very hesistant to draft him or Olsen knowing they came that close to calling it quits. Gotta wonder if their heart is really in it, and that worries me.

 

He isn't going to quit midseason.  I'd worry about it in a dynasty league or after this season ends.  If he went through camp and all of the preseason his heart is going to be in it for the season. Players dread camp.

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This is the best question you can possibly ask yourself. In any given draft scenario or strategy discussion, this is the question you should be asking yourself, and only you can decide what's bes

225 Fantasy points in 13 games.  He was averaging 17.3 Points Per Game. 4 WRs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  AB, Hop, OBJ, and K.Allen. 8 RBs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Kamar

13 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

He isn't going to quit midseason.  I'd worry about it in a dynasty league or after this season ends.  If he went through camp and all of the preseason his heart is going to be in it for the season. Players dread camp.

I'm not worried about them quitting midseason. My concern is more with their drive, or hunger. Once retirement has crossed your mind, it doesn't just disappear.

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Just now, GriffeySwag said:

I'm not worried about them quitting midseason. My concern is more with their drive, or hunger. Once retirement has crossed your mind, it doesn't just disappear.

i wouldnt worry about that.  he is a beast and when hes on the field, he does not know how to go easy.  my only concern would be about the pats resting him some down the stretch in order to keep him healthy.  not to the point where hes not starting, but just not seeing as many snaps.  he probably doesnt need a full slate of snaps in order for him to still be worth his price...

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5 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

I'm not worried about them quitting midseason. My concern is more with their drive, or hunger. Once retirement has crossed your mind, it doesn't just disappear.

 

That is not a concern for me.  I disagree with that.  He made up his mind to play.  He isn't going to be thinking about a beach during the middle of a game saying "I wish I was there".  A lot of players contemplate that stuff during the offseason.  Again, he wouldn't have put himself through camp and all of that crap just to wistful dream of retirement in the middle of the season.  Probably wants a monster year and try to go out on top, or, leverage for a big contract.  Either way, I don't doubt his commitment to this season, and I don't see it as any reason to lower his draft stock or to be concerned. 

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43 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

"his Game Speed and average separation yards (2.3) show Gronk has lost movement ability off his prime"

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80811/59/offseason-low-down

 

I remember that Gronk looked a slower last season.  But he did have groin and thigh injuries early, so maybe that was slowing him down?

 

 

Hmmm, seems odd to me.  Guy posted numbers above all of his career averages.  His catch % was the best since 2012.  Okay, 2016 was better by .1% but also a bit of an oddity with a 21.6 Y/R and was cut short due to injury, and his lowest receptions a game rate.  I also, whether I wasn't paying enough attention or not before I am not sure, but saw him get absolutely mugged at the LOS and going out on routes.

 

What exactly was his "prime" they are basing that one?  2016 was his best Y/R by a long shot.  In fact, the last 3 years were better than any of his earlier years, even the monster 2011 in that department.

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1 hour ago, Nap Time said:

"his Game Speed and average separation yards (2.3) show Gronk has lost movement ability off his prime"

 

Spoiler Alert: Everyone has lost movement ability off of their primes.

That's how primes work.

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1 hour ago, Sternes said:

 I also, whether I wasn't paying enough attention or not before I am not sure, but saw him get absolutely mugged at the LOS and going out on routes.

 

If you lose some quickness, it's easier for defenders to jam you at the line.

 

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4 hours ago, Big Nate said:

It wouldn't surprise me if Gronk has 6+ TDs by week 4.  This guy is going to beast this year.

It wouldn't surprise me if Gronk has 0 TDs by week 4.  This guy is going to bust this year.

See what I did there? I took your sentence, and entered some other random numbers without any justification. Both sentences are just as valid (ie: not at all).
Guys, the hype train is going to ride anyway. Shall we keep the assessments somewhat level headed for at least a couple more days until the season starts?

Gronk got in his career on average around 7 targets, out of which he caught 4.6, for 70 yds and .75 TD. Those are pretty amazing numbers. Recently the yards are closer to 80 yd/game, but the TDs more like .6, so let's use those numbers.
Unfortunately, also over his 8 year career he had 5 years where he played 14+ games, and 3 seasons where he broke down halfway. That has to be a concern. It's not as if he's a wuss, TE is just not a very healthy job, and he's going to get hit again.

I think we have to consider at least the following scenarios.
- Gronk plays more or less a full season (~15 games): let's call it 70/1100/10, which is more or less an average of 2014/15/17. 
- Gronk plays half a season (~8 games): that's still 35/550/5 ish.
The problem of course is that while if he gets you those 8 games, that will win you a couple weeks, but in the play-offs (where we all want to end up), he won't be there and your opponent may well still have his 2nd rounder. A healthy Gronk is well worth his price, but there is a bigger risk than with other 2nd round targets, and just hyping it up is not going to make the risk disappear.
 

Edited by Boudewijn
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10 hours ago, Nap Time said:

 

If you lose some quickness, it's easier for defenders to jam you at the line.

 

 

This is pretty obvious.  However, if that was the case why are his numbers higher per catch etc., than his career averages?  he was also absolutely held quite a bit going back to the first game of the season and being practically dragged down at times by DB's and not getting flags. The question I was posing was where they drawing the statistic from when they said his "prime".  That is offly vague while attempting to tell us he has lost a step.

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I remember when Antonio Gates kept producing consistently years after his prime....

 

Gronk is only 29.  He’s a mismatch for Amy defender on the field, at 6’7/250 with sure hands.  He has the best QB in the league.  Sure he takes a beating, but the risk of injury should be the only concern this year, not that he will all of a sudden stop being Tom Brady’s favorite target or stop being able to play football.  He was never Jarvis Landry, out-quicking defenders with precise routes.  His production has always been by knowing where to go, when to break long, and when to sit in zone coverage and catch the ball.  Losing some fractional seconds of speed isn’t going to undermine that ability.

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1 hour ago, Sternes said:

 

This is pretty obvious.  However, if that was the case why are his numbers higher per catch etc., than his career averages? 

 

It could just be a result of different usage.  It was advertised before the 2017 season started that the Pats would be using Gronk more as a downfield target.  That was one reason I drafted him.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

It could just be a result of different usage.  It was advertised before the 2017 season started that the Pats would be using Gronk more as a downfield target.  That was one reason I drafted him.

 

 

 

2016 his numbers were even higher.  In fact his last 3 years are all higher in the Y/R category than any of his first 5 season in the NFL.  He also has bumped his catch percentage up nicely as well. 

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I reached for Gronk last year after Edelman went down for the entire season.

 

Wasn't worth it.  He ain't the kid he used to be, and I'm sure Brady's trying to avoid forcing passes that result in an injured favorite target.

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Gronk would have been a top 10 WR in ppr last year. 3 of the last 4 seasons he's averaged 251.33 fantasy points. I'll take him all day at any pick in the 3rd round. 

 

EDIT: Heck, if I'm picking late in the 2nd round in a 12 teamer and staring down Gronk, Mike Evans, Juju and McKinnon I'll take Gronk there too no question. 

Edited by P@ckersFan
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4 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

Gronk would have been a top 10 WR in ppr last year. 3 of the last 4 seasons he's averaged 251.33 fantasy points. I'll take him all day at any pick in the 3rd round. 

Guess it depends on number of teams, but he’s really not going in the 3rd round....

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27 minutes ago, jmausen said:

I reached for Gronk last year after Edelman went down for the entire season.

 

Wasn't worth it.  He ain't the kid he used to be, and I'm sure Brady's trying to avoid forcing passes that result in an injured favorite target.

 

I took him very early and I was very happy.  He was the #1 TE by a mile, like 3 points per game more than #2 Kelce.

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13 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

It wouldn't surprise me if Gronk has 0 TDs by week 4.  This guy is going to bust this year.

See what I did there? I took your sentence, and entered some other random numbers without any justification. Both sentences are just as valid (ie: not at all).
Guys, the hype train is going to ride anyway. Shall we keep the assessments somewhat level headed for at least a couple more days until the season starts?

Gronk got in his career on average around 7 targets, out of which he caught 4.6, for 70 yds and .75 TD. Those are pretty amazing numbers. Recently the yards are closer to 80 yd/game, but the TDs more like .6, so let's use those numbers.
Unfortunately, also over his 8 year career he had 5 years where he played 14+ games, and 3 seasons where he broke down halfway. That has to be a concern. It's not as if he's a wuss, TE is just not a very healthy job, and he's going to get hit again.

I think we have to consider at least the following scenarios.
- Gronk plays more or less a full season (~15 games): let's call it 70/1100/10, which is more or less an average of 2014/15/17. 
- Gronk plays half a season (~8 games): that's still 35/550/5 ish.
The problem of course is that while if he gets you those 8 games, that will win you a couple weeks, but in the play-offs (where we all want to end up), he won't be there and your opponent may well still have his 2nd rounder. A healthy Gronk is well worth his price, but there is a bigger risk than with other 2nd round targets, and just hyping it up is not going to make the risk disappear.
 

I'm glad you spent time on this. I was hoping people wouldn't take my post too seriously... but alas here we are.

 

To keep it short, outside of Hogan and the RBs there isn't a lot of competition for targets. Moreover there isn't a lot of red zone competition. Dwayne Allen could be a sneaky pick for a couple TDs if they run 2 TE sets.

 

We have seen it in the past that teams really struggle to match-up with Gronk, and he can score from 20+ yards out.

 

So while Edleman is out Gronk will bee a focal point for this offense and since teams have trouble covering him I don't see why he can't put up some of his best numbers. Even when teams double/triple Gronk he still gets his piece of the pie.

 

I also think White will have some great numbers in the first 4 games getting a good portion of the target pie. I'm targeting White in all my leagues and then after game 4 trade him if I need help in other areas.

 

Even when Edleman is back he is 32 years old and hasn't been a pillar of health over his career...

 

 

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