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Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook


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17 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

I took him very early and I was very happy.  He was the #1 TE by a mile, like 3 points per game more than #2 Kelce.

 

And he would have been the #3 WR, so that's about what you expect from using a high draft pick on a TE.

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This is the best question you can possibly ask yourself. In any given draft scenario or strategy discussion, this is the question you should be asking yourself, and only you can decide what's bes

225 Fantasy points in 13 games.  He was averaging 17.3 Points Per Game. 4 WRs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  AB, Hop, OBJ, and K.Allen. 8 RBs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Kamar

2 hours ago, herschel said:

Guess it depends on number of teams, but he’s really not going in the 3rd round....

 

If he's going in the 3rd round u must be in an 8 team league.

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decent Catch% or not, my eyes told me his athleticism/agility/quickness have declined. I still think he'll be a good fantasy player, based on his involvement, his raw size, and Tom Brady. I just think his great years are behind him. I'd honestly prefer Kelce at this point. Feels less volatile, and closer to his athletic prime. Gronk isn't quite on my DoNotDraft list, but I definitely won't be taking him late round-2 like I did in two leagues last year. 

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1 hour ago, RotoBird said:

decent Catch% or not, my eyes told me his athleticism/agility/quickness have declined. I still think he'll be a good fantasy player, based on his involvement, his raw size, and Tom Brady. I just think his great years are behind him. I'd honestly prefer Kelce at this point. Feels less volatile, and closer to his athletic prime. Gronk isn't quite on my DoNotDraft list, but I definitely won't be taking him late round-2 like I did in two leagues last year. 

 

Right, because Gronk has been the second coming of Dante Hall? :blink:

 

Kelce is closer to his athletic prime because he is...7 months younger?  Not to mention he had a pair of concussions last year.

 

You would take Gronk in the 2nd last year, but not this year?  With less WR options, with Burkhead and a vague knee injury, and Lewis not in the picture?  Their starting WR for the first 4 games of the season are going to be Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson, and I don't even know who their 4th guy will be.  :huh:

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45 minutes ago, herschel said:

 

I vaguely remember a Patriots player about 5 years ago who had an incentive about to kick at the end of the season and the coaches blocked him by sidelining him.

 

Am I misremembering?
 

Do incentives affect cap space? Seems like they must.

 

If the Pats have an incentive to cap Gronk in garbage time/end of season that's not cool.

 

I know this is tinfoil hat stuff but I try to sniff out all the potential angles no matter what

Edited by Cotton Jones
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36 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

Right, because Gronk has been the second coming of Dante Hall? :blink:

 

Kelce is closer to his athletic prime because he is...7 months younger?  Not to mention he had a pair of concussions last year.

 

You would take Gronk in the 2nd last year, but not this year?  With less WR options, with Burkhead and a vague knee injury, and Lewis not in the picture?  Their starting WR for the first 4 games of the season are going to be Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson, and I don't even know who their 4th guy will be.  :huh:

 

I didn't realize Kelce was that close to him in age.

Obviously I'm not saying he was/is Dante Hall lol. But for a guy so big, he is an athletic freak. And I think that athleticism is waning, despite the awesome season last year. He doesn't strike me as a guy who eats walnut salads and lays off the booze, I don't anticipate his football body will age gracefully. 

 

Maybe he'll have a vintage Gronk year and I'll eat my words. But I feel more comfortable taking a stud WR1 around that part of the draft. Just personal preference. 

 

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1 minute ago, Cotton Jones said:

I vaguely remember a Patriots player about 5 years ago who had an incentive about to kick at the end of the season and the coaches blocked him by sidelining him.

 

Am I misremembering?
 

Do incentives affect cap space? Seems like they must.

 

If the Pats have an incentive to cap Gronk in garbage time/end of season that's not cool.

This sounds familiar, but not with the Pats?  I don’t see Hoodie considering contracts when calling plays and clearly he does what he wants, not t what Kraft wants.

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9 minutes ago, RotoBird said:

 

I didn't realize Kelce was that close to him in age.

Obviously I'm not saying he was/is Dante Hall lol. But for a guy so big, he is an athletic freak. And I think that athleticism is waning, despite the awesome season last year. He doesn't strike me as a guy who eats walnut salads and lays off the booze, I don't anticipate his football body will age gracefully

 

Maybe he'll have a vintage Gronk year and I'll eat my words. But I feel more comfortable taking a stud WR1 around that part of the draft. Just personal preference. 

 

 

Started last year

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/rob-gronkowski-is-trying-tom-bradys-diet-plan-but-skipping-one-key-part/

 

Whether it is effective or not, I don't know, but he has attempted to adjust his diet and see if it helps.

 

Edited by Sternes
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Just got Gronk last night in 12 team PPR.  Pick 29.  Couldn't be happier.  Everyone went on a massive RB run early.

 

Caused a big audible in my draft strategy, was planning on TE super late.

 

But Gronk playing for incentives on a team hurting for playmakers?  Yes, please.

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22 minutes ago, herschel said:

This sounds familiar, but not with the Pats?  I don’t see Hoodie considering contracts when calling plays and clearly he does what he wants, not t what Kraft wants.

It doesn't really affect Kraft because he's not the director of personnel. Isn't BB pretty much the HC & personnel guy? So the amount of cap space directly affects his flexibility in 2019.

 

Here is how incentives work vs the cap.

Quote

Incentives are written into some contracts to pay a player for reaching certain performance criteria. Incentives come in two varieties – Likely To Be Earned (LTBE) and Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) – each of which has different Salary Cap implications.

Likely To Be Earned Incentives (LTBE) are incentives based on performance levels that were reached in the prior season. LTBEs count against the Salary Cap in the year they are scheduled.

For example, if a RB ran for 1,200 yards last year and he has an incentive that will pay him $100,000 if he runs for 1,000 yards this year, the incentive would be a LTBE Incentive and would count against the Salary Cap this year.

On the other hand, if the RB ran for 1,000 yards last year and he has an incentive that will pay him $100,000 if he runs for 1,200 yards this year, then incentive would be Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) and would not count against this year’s Salary Cap.

If the player does not earn a LTBE Incentive, then the amount of the incentive ($100K in our example) will be credited against the following year’s Salary Cap and the team would have $100K in additional Cap space in the following year.

The opposite happens with NLTBE Incentives. If those are earned, they are charged to the following year’s Salary Cap. In our example, that would mean that the team would have $100K less in Cap space the following year.

 

Gronk's incentives this year: 

Quote

On top of his $8 million base, Gronk will earn a $1.1 million bonus -- up to three -- for each of the following: If he plays 80 percent of the Patriots' snaps, catches 70 or more passes, scores nine or more touchdowns, or surpasses 1,085 receiving yards.

 

Gronks 2017 stats:

69 rec, 1084 yds, 8 TD.

 

LOL so basically they set the bar as close to his prior season's stats as they could without it counting against the 2018 cap.

And for each incentive he reaches, that takes 1.1 million off their 2019 cap, up to 3.3

Can we agree the Pats & BB have an incentive to keep Gronk from reaching his incentives?

Edited by Cotton Jones
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25 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

I vaguely remember a Patriots player about 5 years ago who had an incentive about to kick at the end of the season and the coaches blocked him by sidelining him.

 

Am I misremembering?
 

Do incentives affect cap space? Seems like they must.

 

If the Pats have an incentive to cap Gronk in garbage time/end of season that's not cool.

 

I know this is tinfoil hat stuff but I try to sniff out all the potential angles no matter what

This was allegedly happening with Mark Ingram

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2 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

It doesn't really affect Kraft because he's not the director of personnel. Isn't BB pretty much the HC & personnel guy? So the amount of cap space directly effects his flexibility in 2019.

 

Here is how incentives work vs the cap.

 

Gronk's incentives this year: 

 

Gronks 2017 stats:

69 rec, 1084 yds, 8 TD.

 

LOL so basically they set the bar as close to his prior season's stats as they could without it counting against the 2018 cap.

And for each incentive he reaches, that takes 1.1 million off their 2019 cap, up to 3.3

Can we agree the Pats & BB have an incentive to keep Gronk from reaching his incentives?

I think you're seeing ghosts.

 

This was an easy way to keep the dude happy.  He's going to shatter those #s barring injury.

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4 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

It doesn't really affect Kraft because he's not the director of personnel. Isn't BB pretty much the HC & personnel guy? So the amount of cap space directly effects his flexibility in 2019.

 

Here is how incentives work vs the cap.

 

Gronk's incentives this year: 

 

Gronks 2017 stats:

69 rec, 1084 yds, 8 TD.

 

LOL so basically they set the bar as close to his prior season's stats as they could without it counting against the 2018 cap.

And for each incentive he reaches, that takes 1.1 million off their 2019 cap, up to 3.3

Can we agree the Pats & BB have an incentive to keep Gronk from reaching his incentives?

 

This doesn't make any sense.  Look at his contract.  They aren't going to intentional hold him back.  They didn't the previous year, and he received $3 million.

 

2017 Incentives (all NLTBE)
70% snaps OR 60 rec/800 yards OR 10 TD: $1M
80% snaps OR 70 rec OR 1,000 yards OR 12 TD: $3M
90% snaps OR 80 rec/ 1,200 yards, 14 TD OR All Pro selection: $5.5M

 

2018 NLTBE Incentives, $1.1M each (max $3.3M)
70 catches 
80% offensive snaps
9 receiving TDs
1,085 Receiving Yards

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/rob-gronkowski-6551/

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27 minutes ago, affliction said:

This was allegedly happening with Mark Ingram

ah thanks. that's probably who i was thinking of.

 

 

To the guy who said "it doesn't make sense"

Are we going to pretend that BB & the Pats are all about "players first"? 

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11 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

ah thanks. that's probably who i was thinking of.

 

 

To the guy who said "it doesn't make sense"

Are we going to pretend that BB & the Pats are all about "players first"? 

 

Because what are suggesting is dumb.  Pats play to win, they aren't going to feed a guy just to get a bonus.  At the same time they aren't going to gameplan around not using him so he doesn't get a bonus.  In something as unpredictable as football, they are going to bean count his stats live?   "Hey, Tom, don't throw to Gronk the first few games even if he is open. We don't want him to get that bonus!"  You also think Brady would work with that?  Come on.  This is a ridiculous conspiracy out of your you-know-what. 

 

They tried to save that money last year so hard that he still earned it.  :rolleyes:  Now, with less weapons on offense they need him more, and they are going to worry about bonus money?  Yeah, okay.

 

giphy.gif

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

Because what are suggesting is dumb.  Pats play to win, they aren't going to feed a guy just to get a bonus.  At the same time they aren't going to gameplan around not using him so he doesn't get a bonus.  In something as unpredictable as football, they are going to bean count his stats live?   "Hey, Tom, don't throw to Gronk the first few games even if he is open. We don't want him to get that bonus!"  You also think Brady would work with that?  Come on.  This is a ridiculous conspiracy out of your you-know-what. 

 

They tried to save that money last year so hard that he still earned it.  :rolleyes:  Now, with less weapons on offense they need him more, and they are going to worry about bonus money?  Yeah, okay.

 

giphy.gif

 

 

 

No I don't think BB is going to tell Tom to not throw to Gronk.

I do think it is possible that they are more likely to sit Gronk down in a non-essential game, or a blowout, even when other 1's are on the field. They even have the built-in "Gronk's injury history" excuse for sitting him. Which is what I talked about in my first post: benching. It's happened before, maybe with other teams, but it has happened with incentives.

This strawman stuff you're trying out is so entry-level high school debate.

I guess the easy way to "settle this" is to come back in Jan when Gronk has 79% snap count, 8 TD's and 1055 yards.

 

I'm not anti-Gronk, anti-Patriot, etc, I am trying to figure out whether or not to draft the guy.

 

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1 hour ago, Sternes said:

2017 Incentives (all NLTBE)

 

70% snaps OR 60 rec/800 yards OR 10 TD: $1M
80% snaps OR 70 rec OR 1,000 yards OR 12 TD: $3M
90% snaps OR 80 rec/ 1,200 yards, 14 TD OR All Pro selection: $5.5M

 

I don't totally buy into this theory, but it is interesting in light of the numbers.  Belichick seems to have managed the season perfectly to maximize Gronk's usage while staying just under the incentives UNTIL THE STEELERS GAME, when they had their backs against the wall and had to start throwing to Gronk on practically every play near the end.   Of course, Belichick can't really control where Brady throws the ball.  If the team catches him explicitly telling Brady not to throw it to Gronk, that would probably trigger a mutiny.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

I don't totally buy into this theory, but it is interesting in light of the numbers.  Belichick seems to have managed the season perfectly to maximize Gronk's usage while staying just under the incentives UNTIL THE STEELERS GAME, when they had their backs against the wall and had to start throwing to Gronk on practically every play near the end.

 

 

 

Because they anticipated him missing the 5th game due to injury against TB, and him getting himself suspended in week 14?  They still had two games to go and the Pats tend to rest their guys only in game 17.

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6 minutes ago, Cotton Jones said:

 

No I don't think BB is going to tell Tom to not throw to Gronk.

I do think it is possible that they are more likely to sit Gronk down in a non-essential game, or a blowout, even when other 1's are on the field. They even have the built-in "Gronk's injury history" excuse for sitting him. Which is what I talked about in my first post: benching. It's happened before, maybe with other teams, but it has happened with incentives.

This strawman stuff you're trying out is so entry-level high school debate.

I guess the easy way to "settle this" is to come back in Jan when Gronk has 79% snap count, 8 TD's and 1055 yards.

 

I'm not anti-Gronk, anti-Patriot, etc, I am trying to figure out whether or not to draft the guy.

 

 

Got it, I'm the one in HS. 

 

Let me know when a player has been benched like that on any team, and especially on the Pats.  

 

If your big fear is him getting benched week 6 and watching from the sideline so he doesn't get a bonus, don't draft him.

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21 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

Got it, I'm the one in HS. 

 

Let me know when a player has been benched like that on any team, and especially on the Pats.  

 

If your big fear is him getting benched week 6 and watching from the sideline so he doesn't get a bonus, don't draft him.

 

Again, strawman argument.

I did not suggest anything ridiculous like Brady being told not to throw to Gronk, or Gronk getting benched in week 6.

Hopefuly Gronk comes out with 5 TD's the first 2-3 weeks and reaching his incentives becomes inevitable. 

 

21 minutes ago, Sternes said:


Let me know when a player has been benched like that on any team, and especially on

the Pats.  

 

Ok.

https://broncoswire.usatoday.com/2017/12/29/denver-broncos-jamaal-charles-bonus-benched/

A simple google will provide plenty of "crazy conspiracy theories" like players getting screwed out of incentives.

 

The NFL is a league that has no guaranteed contracts, a league in which the cliche "it's a business" is used constantly to explain away the coldness with which players are treated, and - most importantly - a league with a hard cap which is eaten into by incentives being reached.

 

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Not a lot of competition for targets early in the season. Playing for bonuses and wanting to prove he is still the man.  Brady wanting to solidify his legacy and what do we get?  The hype train boys.

 

You are either in or you are out. If you are out - get out of the way!

 

gronkfatality.0.gif

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3 hours ago, Big Nate said:

You are either in or you are out. If you are out - get out of the way!

 

 

If I was "in" on a player, I'd still want to hear the skepticism from those who are "out". keep expectations tempered. devil's advocate yada yada.

I sure could've used some more pushback when I was slobbering over Terrell Pryor last preseason... 

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