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Daniel Mengden 2018 Outlook


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He's an interesting, semi-post-hype guy for me this year. 24-yr old is a no doubt member of the Oak rotation to begin the year. Finished last year out incredibly well, rattling off four quality starts in his last five with a 1.54 ERA and a 26:6 K:BB ratio during that span. Overall finishing at 43 IP, 36 HA, 29K/8BB for a 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Mengden was terrific against righties at the big-league level in his seven starts last year, holding them to a .182/.253/.307 slash line.

 

There's no extraordinary ceiling here, but I can see I nice back-of-the-staff guy for fantasy--esp in deeper formats.

 

Noticed this in the fangraphs prospect roll-out this week, was from a post-prospect article (by Longenhagen):

"Had Mengden not missed much of last year with a stress reaction in his rib cage, he may have been hotly pursued by playoff teams. He can really pitch. His fastball velocity was down a tick, but it’s still an average offering, and Mengden has above-average command of it. He attacks hitters in on their hands early and then works the slider down and to his glove side against both lefties and righties while supplementing it with a dying changeup against lefties. The next time through the order, he hits you with a heavier dose of breaking balls, including a rainbow curveball, which is slow but has enough depth to compete in the zone if a hitter is waiting to ambush one. Everything is average or a tick above. If he’s healthy, he looks like a league-average starter, comfortably so if his 2016 velocity returns."

 

Also typically sports a killer mustache fwiw...

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He's an interesting, semi-post-hype guy for me this year. 24-yr old is a no doubt member of the Oak rotation to begin the year. Finished last year out incredibly well, rattling off four quality starts

This is some of your better work, sir.

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On 2/10/2018 at 4:37 PM, ST. STEVEN said:

is a no doubt member of the Oak rotation to begin the year.

I agree with your overall point and am in on the Oakland rotation, but Mengden is not a lock. Manaea and Graveman are sure things. Beyond that it's a battle. Mengden is one of the favorites but it is definitely not a lock or guarantee. They have five arms battling it out for the last three spots. And that's excluding any surprise performances in camp or unexpected signings.

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9 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I agree with your overall point and am in on the Oakland rotation, but Mengden is not a lock. Manaea and Graveman are sure things. Beyond that it's a battle. Mengden is one of the favorites but it is definitely not a lock or guarantee. They have five arms battling it out for the last three spots. And that's excluding any surprise performances in camp or unexpected signings.

 

Mengden is a lock for me outside of injury. 

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1 minute ago, AnonymousRob said:

Okay. But unless you're one of the decision makers for the A's I'm not sure how that's relevant. 

 

I think he's much better than any of the 3-5 options. I would be shocked if 3 guys jumped him. There's also a chance Graveman or Mannea get hurt. 

 

I am a decision maker for the As.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I think he's much better than any of the 3-5 options. I would be shocked if 3 guys jumped him. There's also a chance Graveman or Mannea get hurt. 

 

I am a decision maker for the As.

 

 

 

I agree there's a pretty reasonable chance of an injury happening to somebody. I can't envision any realistic scenario where Mengden avoids the rotation all year (assuming he isn't the one to get injured).

 

But it's a pretty legitimate battle for the last three spots.

 

Paul Blackburn had a very promising rookie year, with a 3.22 era in about 60 innings. SSS of course and his peripherals were much worse, but those results put him in good position to stay in the rotation.

 

Andrew Triggs hasn't pitched more than 60ish ML innings in the past two years, but he's flashed some promise of a back of the rotation guy, pitching to an era of about 4.3. And his minor league track record is promising enough to want to see more of the guy.

 

Daniel Gossett? Yeah, well, he's a technically a threat but unless he really breaks out this spring he's not going to beat out the others.

 

Jharel Cotton, anybody remember last year's hype? He's still around and has as good a chance as anyone. 

 

Mengden himself had a fine season last year, but if you buy into the peripherals his performance was a lot uglier. Yes, he has a weird delivery which might help him more than advanced stats show, but the other guys have tricks up their sleeves as well.

 

I think it's really going to come down to Triggs, Cotton, Mengden for two spots. If you put a gun to my head right now I'd say Triggs loses out, but it's going to come down to spring training performance and it really isn't close to a lock at this time. Oakland isn't going to churn out 5 aces this year, but they have a lot of solid mid to back end rotation guys to play with.

 

Here's some fun love for you guys to appreciate from his manager. "It was a small sample size, but it was borderline spectacular. He pitched even better than the first game we saw him pitch in Cincinnati, and that’s where we really took note of what he can do. When he came back this year, as good as he was, how can you not say this guy probably has a leg up as far as being in the rotation?"

 

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The Athletic had a good write-up on him and his impressive September. He really stepped up in studying and game-planning, changed his cut/slider to more of a slider and shortened his wind-up a little bit to help improve his control. Had a 1.54 BB/9 in those 35 innings in September. 

At least going into spring, he's the heavy favorite to be the No. 3 starter. Blackburn probably the 4 and Cotton, Triggs will end up battling for the 5th spot. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ryno1980 said:

 

At least going into spring, he's the heavy favorite to be the No. 3 starter. Blackburn probably the 4 and Cotton, Triggs will end up battling for the 5th spot. 

 

 

 

Yes, this is what I agree with. There's a non zero chance he isn't in the rotation.  I find that chance to be pretty low if he's healthy. I'm not a fan of any of the guys below him, and 3 of them need to jump him.  I'm not even sure he isn't better than Graveman too, but I can respect that Graveman is more locked into a role.  

 

Regardless ceiling isn't super high with Mengden, but I like him as a like as a late SP flyer in a deeper league. I think he'd be a top 100 pitcher for me right now.

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On 2/22/2018 at 8:39 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Yes, this is what I agree with. There's a non zero chance he isn't in the rotation.  I find that chance to be pretty low if he's healthy. I'm not a fan of any of the guys below him, and 3 of them need to jump him.  I'm not even sure he isn't better than Graveman too, but I can respect that Graveman is more locked into a role.  

 

Regardless ceiling isn't super high with Mengden, but I like him as a like as a late SP flyer in a deeper league. I think he'd be a top 100 pitcher for me right now.

having a bad spring...is he even worth owning in a deep league or just keep an eye on?

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7 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

having a bad spring...is he even worth owning in a deep league or just keep an eye on?

 

I think he's probably still worth owning in a deep league where there isn't much pitching on the wire. The A's #1 Kendall Graveman, is having an even worse spring. I feel like the entire staff besides AJ Puk is, and AJ Puk isn't making the rotation out of spring most likely.... even though he's probably their best pitcher. I think on the last Baseball HQ podcast the guest actually highlighted Mengden as a sleeper and spoke about him a bit. The Cactus league is pretty hitter friendly too.  He isn't a must own guy by any means. If you're in a league that already has pickups and drops , I think owning Puk instead of Mengden until he's officially sent to the minors might not be awful. Puk has a ton more upside.  If you see other attractive FA, I wouldn't be hellbent on holding Mengden.  That being said, I still think Mengden makes the rotation and makes for an interesting guy in deep leagues. Talking 14-16+ wth ample bench spots. 

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Came up just shy of the CGSO, as he let Jose Abreu go deep in the top of the 9th. Certainly appears to be righting the ship after poor start to year.

He's never going to be a front line guy but if he can take the ball for around 30 starts he will provide value in deep leagues.

Notes from last night:

-Averaged 93 MPH and hit 96

-The FB got 8 whiffs and he threw it for strikes 70+%

-The CU and SL both got 3 whiffs apiece and averaged 74 and 84 MPH respectively

-Also was throwing a hard sinker and CH for strikes

-Pretty clear the separation on velocity and the command was quite useful

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This guy has shut down Boston twice, Houston once (although Houston got him once as well) and I have a real thing for pitchers who don't beat themselves with walks.  The A's schedule looks to get a bit easier for his next 2-3 starts...anyone else buying?

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Never left--in my deep leagues, but yeah he does not get talked about enough.

I guess it does make sense in standard leagues though...still as you said he seldom beats himself (lolz) and has just enough stuff and plenty of moxie on the mound. Crappy defense hurts some, but made up for by home park...

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I'm on board in deeper leagues.  He's going under the radar because he doesn't have that great K-rate that everyone wants, but he's pitching well and the underlying metrics support him to keep it up.  And I would even suggest we'll see an uptick in K-rate going forward as well - his K-rate has dropped a bit in the tougher matchups vs HOU and BOS, but otherwise he's been K-ing at a respectable rate.  Also generally when you see a pitcher with good control, a change up that's 10 MPH slower than his fastball, and 4+ usable pitches, you see a decent K-rate.

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2 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

He's putting up the same numbers as Miles Mikolas with 1/10th of the fanfare.

 

I see no reason to think he can't put up a 3.75 ERA with a very good WHIP and solid W/QS/K going forward.

I can understand it to an extent given that Mikolas was a story since they signed him from another league, and obviously the Cardinals would get a lot more press than Oakland.  Still, the way Mengden is pitching this season. he deserves some attention.  He's not doing anything flashy since he doesn't strike out a bunch of batters or throw 100 MPH, but you can't argue with the ratios.

 

I don't see any reason why he couldn't do all of what you said either, minus the K's because he's not a strikeout pitcher by any means.

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