Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Daniel Mengden 2018 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 66
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

He's an interesting, semi-post-hype guy for me this year. 24-yr old is a no doubt member of the Oak rotation to begin the year. Finished last year out incredibly well, rattling off four quality starts

This is some of your better work, sir.

Posted Images

32 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I can understand it to an extent given that Mikolas was a story since they signed him from another league, and obviously the Cardinals would get a lot more press than Oakland.  Still, the way Mengden is pitching this season. he deserves some attention.  He's not doing anything flashy since he doesn't strike out a bunch of batters or throw 100 MPH, but you can't argue with the ratios.

 

I don't see any reason why he couldn't do all of what you said either, minus the K's because he's not a strikeout pitcher by any means.

 

He's certainly not a strikeout pitcher. But a pitcher can accumulate "solid Ks" by simply pitching a decent number of innings. I'll take 140 strikeouts in 200 innings of work.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

He's certainly not a strikeout pitcher. But a pitcher can accumulate "solid Ks" by simply pitching a decent number of innings. I'll take 140 strikeouts in 200 innings of work.

Fair enough, but even that is fairly weak production in K's considering people can pitch less innings and that and still get 200+ K's.

 

It's not like I'm not Mengden that much.  I'm obviously grateful that he went out and did what he did to erase Newcomb's horrible start for me after I picked up Mengden today.  I'm just stating that K's will be his one weak point in fantasy from here on out.  I'll still take the solid ratios and decent win total.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

He's putting up the same numbers as Miles Mikolas with 1/10th of the fanfare.

 

I see no reason to think he can't put up a 3.75 ERA with a very good WHIP and solid W/QS/K going forward.

He's a poor man's version of Mikolas. The comparison is understandable but a bit misguided due to our collective, incessant need to compare every player to someone else. Neither walk many guys. There are some similarities between the two but imo nothing more than many other guys. 

 

Also, Mikolas is getting fanfare? 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

He's a poor man's version of Mikolas. The comparison is understandable but a bit misguided due to our collective, incessant need to compare every player to someone else. Neither walk many guys. There are some similarities between the two but imo nothing more than many other guys. 

 

Also, Mikolas is getting fanfare? 

 

I agree that I would rather have Mikolas based on the stuff.

 

Yes, the comparison is essentially driven by the fact that they are both relatively low strikeout, extremely low walk pitchers who are having success. There aren't too many of those in baseball right now.

 

As for fanfare - well, his Rotoworld page is a lot longer. :P

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, beauso79 said:

He and Reynaldo Lopez are pitching very similar right now 

Reynaldo gave up three walks in his last start. Mengden has given up three walks over the last month. 

I kind of understand the Mikolas comparison. I don't understand this one, but I'm curious to see how you view them as being similar right now. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

First of all, that is a beautiful portrait of Mengden Division Vision!

 

Second, I agree with the Mikolas comparison, they are both crafty pitchers and keep their composure after allowing hits/runs, not that many more K's by Mikolas and very similar ratios/wins/QS & team records

 

Third, I wish I could grow out my stache like either one of them but the warden makes me shave twice a week

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Take out his Houston start (2.1 IP, 4 ER) and he's been one of the best pitchers in the league all season. I know you cant just take out a start, but this guy is legit. Low walk rate which keeps WHIP super low. Should cruise against the Rays today.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Do the metrics support what he’s been doing given that he’s not a strikeout pitcher??  A pretty decent sample dating back to last season of great pitching so if anyone has looked into if this  is flukey I would love to know cause I own Megden everywhere. 

Edited by chud12
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, jvfantasy said:

Take out his Houston start (2.1 IP, 4 ER) and he's been one of the best pitchers in the league all season. I know you cant just take out a start, but this guy is legit. Low walk rate which keeps WHIP super low. Should cruise against the Rays today.

 

No need to take out that start: still has an ERA approaching 2.50 and a whip below 1.00 even with it.  That’s amazing 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, chud12 said:

Do the metrics support what he’s been doing given that he’s not a strikeout pitcher??

 

Which metrics?  He's out-pitching all of the usual peripherals (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) by a lot, but that's in part because strikeouts factor pretty prominently into those, so there's a bit of a question-begging aspect to that.  It's not that these guys can't succeed for long stretches, but more that the margin for error is so thin, because at some point they can get BABIPed to death, or hit an unlucky HR/FB run (Mengden's looks low to me at 7.9%), or just not get the corner calls that help them sustain the low ERA and WHIP numbers.

 

Someone made the Mikolas comp above --  a comp that has been made on a couple of fantasy podcasts over the last couple of weeks -- and I'd personally feel better about Mengden if he had Mikolas' elite 50%-ish GB% instead of just an above-average 40%-ish.

 

In points leagues, obviously these guys are gems.  In roto, I'd be happy to carry one of them as long as you have enough K upside elsewhere, and as long as you don't go down with the ship if the luck breaks the other way.  It's not that this profile can't be successful -- it can -- but it's defying the odds, and that needs to be part of how you value the players (as does the negative impact in the strikeout column in leagues where that matters.)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Trifecta said:

Probably pitched one inning too many. 

 

6 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

 

Never fails

 

It messed up his fantasy line a bit. But I love the fact that Bob Melvin gave him a shot at the CGSHO. Mengden and the rest of the team appreciates it too, I’m sure. 

 

Fantasy is fun and all. But stuff like this is why I prefer the moneyline. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Really can’t complain about that start. In hindsight you can say he shouldnt have been brought back out for the 9th but as mentioned already he only had 94 pitches and had been lights out. It was a perfect opportunity for the manager to give his bullpen the night off and give Mengden the opportunity to finish his work. Tough break at the end but still a great start yet again. Keep it up stache! 

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Which metrics?  He's out-pitching all of the usual peripherals (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) by a lot, but that's in part because strikeouts factor pretty prominently into those, so there's a bit of a question-begging aspect to that.  It's not that these guys can't succeed for long stretches, but more that the margin for error is so thin, because at some point they can get BABIPed to death, or hit an unlucky HR/FB run (Mengden's looks low to me at 7.9%), or just not get the corner calls that help them sustain the low ERA and WHIP numbers.

 

Someone made the Mikolas comp above --  a comp that has been made on a couple of fantasy podcasts over the last couple of weeks -- and I'd personally feel better about Mengden if he had Mikolas' elite 50%-ish GB% instead of just an above-average 40%-ish.

 

In points leagues, obviously these guys are gems.  In roto, I'd be happy to carry one of them as long as you have enough K upside elsewhere, and as long as you don't go down with the ship if the luck breaks the other way.  It's not that this profile can't be successful -- it can -- but it's defying the odds, and that needs to be part of how you value the players (as does the negative impact in the strikeout column in leagues where that matters.)

 

Absolutely agree with all this. One other thing to keep in mind is often with these “little-margin-for-error” pitchers, is that they can be very predictable.  When corrections come it’s probavly that his opponents were good enough to move beyond that little margin: I’ll sit vs Boston and Houston and Cleveland and let him ride vs the rest, more or less.  

Edited by merlin401
Link to post
Share on other sites

I certainly wasn't complaining. This guy has been straight money. Just making an obvious observation due to the 9th inning collapse. I'll still take this line 100% of the time.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Still only owned in 69% of leagues. I don't get it. I'm in a very competitive keeper league with 12 managers and we count QS. Guys like this on the waiver wire are gold. 

 

Wish I had a couple more pitchers like this guy. K rate is low, but money for a QS, low era and whip. What more can you want otta the guy to have him on your roster?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Which metrics?  He's out-pitching all of the usual peripherals (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) by a lot, but that's in part because strikeouts factor pretty prominently into those, so there's a bit of a question-begging aspect to that.  It's not that these guys can't succeed for long stretches, but more that the margin for error is so thin, because at some point they can get BABIPed to death, or hit an unlucky HR/FB run (Mengden's looks low to me at 7.9%), or just not get the corner calls that help them sustain the low ERA and WHIP numbers.

 

Someone made the Mikolas comp above --  a comp that has been made on a couple of fantasy podcasts over the last couple of weeks -- and I'd personally feel better about Mengden if he had Mikolas' elite 50%-ish GB% instead of just an above-average 40%-ish.

 

In points leagues, obviously these guys are gems.  In roto, I'd be happy to carry one of them as long as you have enough K upside elsewhere, and as long as you don't go down with the ship if the luck breaks the other way.  It's not that this profile can't be successful -- it can -- but it's defying the odds, and that needs to be part of how you value the players (as does the negative impact in the strikeout column in leagues where that matters.)

Good stuff.

Yeah Mengden has never had the ground ball arsenal. Fortunately his home digs, and even most of the div road parks play up to his fly ball tendencies.

When his command is sharp he is gonna be useful, no doubt.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...