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Chris Davis 2018 Outlook


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Down in the adp 150-190 range this year after a down year. I noticed he has a really wide gap wrt the expert rankings compiled by FantasyPros. High of 65, low of 220. Obviously he's not in the prime of his career like he was after his last dismal year in 2014 (94 wRC+, .242 babip). But even in the new HR environment, it seems the expert community is split on the chance of a bounceback.

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I don't think people really understand how bad Chris Davis is with all these alternate "worst ever" deals being cited.   A guy like Mauer might not have lived up to the expectations of his c

I'm sorry, but a $26M deal, or whatever it was, just isn't one of the worst in history.  It just isn't.

A high value contract that pays out decent in the front half and is a disaster in the back half is kinda the norm. IMO it should be the expectation.    The ARod contract I actually think sho

I wouldn't read too much into that #65, which is quite an outlier when you look at the individual rankings .  There is a wide range but the three highest ones are way out of line with the consensus.  Nothing wrong with that -- 65 or even a #57 is certainly within the range of outcomes for a guy with Crush's power -- but a vast majority of the expert community has him going 120 or later.  I like him ahead of his 164 ECR, but as 1B-only, it really depends on league configuration, because in shallower leagues or ones without CI slots there are just too many 1B-only guys with similar upside.

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  • 2 weeks later...

i like him at current prices. i picked him up as a salary dump in a contracts league and so i've been reading up on him

 

his K rate has been trending up for the last few years, which is, uh, bad, but i noticed that his SwStr% hasn't actually been getting much worse, if at all. what happened last year seems to be that he led the league in called third strikes. i like that, because, if he's just fishing for the ball and missing, that seems bad, like maybe he just can't see or react as well any more. taking too many strikes seems more fixable

 

in the papers he's saying that he thinks this is all mental, he was just being too passive and got too far into working counts instead of attacking the ball. so he's going to try to attack earlier in the count this year

 

he's not that old yet and given his insanely volatile history it's not hard to imagine him having another 45-homer up season

 

plus at the prices he's going for if it's not happening you can just drop him, so, if you're going to take the shot with him, this is the year for it

 

i've done a few mocks now and the lower-level 1B i find myself taking are two young guys (bird and olson) and two veteran bounceback candidates (davis and hanley)

 

 

 

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He's looked decent so far this spring and crushed an oppo HR yesterday. I'm interested in what Davis will do this year in what should be a solid O's lineup with Schoop, Jones, Machado and Mancini all together heading into the year. He's been quoted several times saying that he is changing his mentality and approach to hitting this season, but nothing mechanically. If you watched him last year you know he was oftentimes TOO patient and worried more about drawing a walk than hitting. He would often get down 0-2 before even looking like he was thinking of swinging the bat and that's a formula for failure with a cut like his. I think if he's more aggressive this year we could see him back in the .225+ range with 40+ HR and good counting stats. Certainly viable for his ADP.

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6 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

If you are targeting someone like Matt Olsen and miss out on him, I think grabbing Chris Davis fairly late will give you even better value. 

 

I agree with this. As an Olson owner in two leagues, he's getting hyped too much for my taste. If I didn't already own him in keepers, I would probably pass on him because of all the articles promoting him and the number of "sleeper" lists he is on. If Davis bounces back at all, I could see him matching Olson's numbers...possibly surpassing them. As a matter of fact, I could easily see Olson's 2018 season looking an awful lot like Davis' 2016 season. 

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Depending on the league, he could be useful. I have him a few head to head each category teams with low weekly transactions that make streaming hitters hard (especially if you are also streaming pitchers). In those leagues I like having a power bench bat to play matchups or if I’m close in HR or RBIs on Sat or Sunday. He’s pretty good in that role. 

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10 minutes ago, CFN said:

LOL at him batting leadoff

Right... Does this help his fantasy value at all? More at bats, but RBI chances will go down. Might see better pitches though hitting ahead of Machado, Schoop, and Jones though

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