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Chris Davis 2018 Outlook


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26 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Just saw where Chris Davis is on pace to basically have the worst season, essentially ever.  -1.8 fWAR already and a wRC+ of 26.

 

Not that he's on ANYONE'S fantasy roster anymore, but what the heck happened to this dude?

The O's will be paying him til 2039.  So they got that going for them.

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I don't think people really understand how bad Chris Davis is with all these alternate "worst ever" deals being cited.   A guy like Mauer might not have lived up to the expectations of his c

I'm sorry, but a $26M deal, or whatever it was, just isn't one of the worst in history.  It just isn't.

A high value contract that pays out decent in the front half and is a disaster in the back half is kinda the norm. IMO it should be the expectation.    The ARod contract I actually think sho

28 minutes ago, billofwa said:

The O's will be paying him til 2039.  So they got that going for them.

 

Quite literally the worst contract ever I think. You don't get this little value from 100 Million hardly ever. Josh Hamilton maybe? And I think at this point, the fact that CD started with the Orioles, (I mean, Texas, but at this level), I think makes it even worse. Harder to just swallow the pride about it... and then you consider how the market started to react to power hitters in the years after they signed that deal-- essentially saying that Chrush could still be 5 times better than he is right now, and that deal probably is still an overpay. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Quite literally the worst contract ever I think. You don't get this little value from 100 Million hardly ever. Josh Hamilton maybe? And I think at this point, the fact that CD started with the Orioles, (I mean, Texas, but at this level), I think makes it even worse. Harder to just swallow the pride about it... and then you consider how the market started to react to power hitters in the years after they signed that deal-- essentially saying that Chrush could still be 5 times better than he is right now, and that deal probably is still an overpay. 

 

As a Yankees Fan, I can put up some competition for bad contracts:

 

1. Clemens 1 yr $28Mil deal (6-6, 4.2+ ERA, only started something like 16 games)

2. Mark Texiera 8 yr $180Mil deal.  Had some moments...but not $180Mil worth.  Last 4 years he was an anchor on the roster and salary cap.

3. AJ Burnett 5 yr $85mil deal (around $85Mil) - Losing record and 5 ERA

4. AROD - nuf said. (10y $275Mil)

5. CC Sabathia's deal...$25Mil a year???  Oof.

5. 

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14 minutes ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

As a Yankees Fan, I can put up some competition for bad contracts:

 

1. Clemens 1 yr $28Mil deal (6-6, 4.2+ ERA, only started something like 16 games)

2. Mark Texiera 8 yr $180Mil deal.  Had some moments...but not $180Mil worth.  Last 4 years he was an anchor on the roster and salary cap.

3. AJ Burnett 5 yr $85mil deal (around $85Mil) - Losing record and 5 ERA

4. AROD - nuf said. (10y $275Mil)

5. CC Sabathia's deal...$25Mil a year???  Oof.

5. 


A high value contract that pays out decent in the front half and is a disaster in the back half is kinda the norm. IMO it should be the expectation. 

 

The ARod contract I actually think should continue to be the shining example of what realistic expectations for most mega-contracts should be. ARod had (if my math is correct), 9.6 WAR that first year, 5.0 the second, and 4.0, 3.9, and 4.0 WAR the next three seasons. Even if he did nothing the back half (and he didn't he had two seasons of 2.5 WAR) this is still a fine contract. You have to take the worse-5 years to get the best-5 years on a lot of these contracts. ARod earned his back with WAR.

 

Same CC. Yeah CC's expensive. Yeah you're paying for bad years. But you knew that you would be when you signed it. You weren't signing that deal and thinking "2017 this guys still gonna be a BEAST!" Yeah the extension was probably unnecessary, but even the first year of the EXTENSION CC was still a great pitcher. It was a poor decision to extend, but as a whole CC earned his money. 

 

I'd say the Ellsbury contract is easily the YANKEES worst, so it's funny to me that you didn't even mention it. 

 

But Chris Davis gave the team nothing. The first year of his contract he was worth roughly the equivalent of ARod that 2015 season (I believe) when he hit for power one last time. Obviously having such a great negative WAR is having such an impact on this figure, but ARod earned like 26.5 WAR those first five seasons? Chris Davis now has 1.1 WAR over the first three seasons of his Orioles extension, and will have taken home 69 Million in salary by the end of the year for that 1.1 WAR, and has four more $23 Million yaers left. 

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"[Szymborski] It's pretty frightening to be on an "on-pace-for" the worst season of all-time by a large margin when you're nearing mid-June. Chris Davis's on-pace-for in fWAR would rank him 81892 out of 81892 player-seasons since 1901. By NEARLY A FULL WIN."

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26 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

No one beats Ryan Howard.

 

he tore his Achilles the last AB before his new 5 year 125 million dollar deal kicked in and was below replacement throughout the deal 

 

 

34 minutes ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

As a Yankees Fan, I can put up some competition for bad contracts:

 

1. Clemens 1 yr $28Mil deal (6-6, 4.2+ ERA, only started something like 16 games)

2. Mark Texiera 8 yr $180Mil deal.  Had some moments...but not $180Mil worth.  Last 4 years he was an anchor on the roster and salary cap.

3. AJ Burnett 5 yr $85mil deal (around $85Mil) - Losing record and 5 ERA

4. AROD - nuf said. (10y $275Mil)

5. CC Sabathia's deal...$25Mil a year???  Oof.

5. 

The Great Joe Mauer belongs in this discussion 

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57 minutes ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

As a Yankees Fan, I can put up some competition for bad contracts:

 

1. Clemens 1 yr $28Mil deal (6-6, 4.2+ ERA, only started something like 16 games)

2. Mark Texiera 8 yr $180Mil deal.  Had some moments...but not $180Mil worth.  Last 4 years he was an anchor on the roster and salary cap.

3. AJ Burnett 5 yr $85mil deal (around $85Mil) - Losing record and 5 ERA

4. AROD - nuf said. (10y $275Mil)

5. CC Sabathia's deal...$25Mil a year???  Oof.

5. 

Carlos Silva once got 4 years 48 million from the Mariners.  He ended 5-18 as a Mariner with a 6.81 era.  Mariners paid him 2.5 years of salary to go the f*** away!

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1 hour ago, taobball said:


A high value contract that pays out decent in the front half and is a disaster in the back half is kinda the norm. IMO it should be the expectation. 

 

The ARod contract I actually think should continue to be the shining example of what realistic expectations for most mega-contracts should be. ARod had (if my math is correct), 9.6 WAR that first year, 5.0 the second, and 4.0, 3.9, and 4.0 WAR the next three seasons. Even if he did nothing the back half (and he didn't he had two seasons of 2.5 WAR) this is still a fine contract. You have to take the worse-5 years to get the best-5 years on a lot of these contracts. ARod earned his back with WAR.

 

Same CC. Yeah CC's expensive. Yeah you're paying for bad years. But you knew that you would be when you signed it. You weren't signing that deal and thinking "2017 this guys still gonna be a BEAST!" Yeah the extension was probably unnecessary, but even the first year of the EXTENSION CC was still a great pitcher. It was a poor decision to extend, but as a whole CC earned his money. 

 

I'd say the Ellsbury contract is easily the YANKEES worst, so it's funny to me that you didn't even mention it. 

 

But Chris Davis gave the team nothing. The first year of his contract he was worth roughly the equivalent of ARod that 2015 season (I believe) when he hit for power one last time. Obviously having such a great negative WAR is having such an impact on this figure, but ARod earned like 26.5 WAR those first five seasons? Chris Davis now has 1.1 WAR over the first three seasons of his Orioles extension, and will have taken home 69 Million in salary by the end of the year for that 1.1 WAR, and has four more $23 Million yaers left. 

 

And I'd have a really hard time ever calling a 1 year deal (Clemens) one of the worst in history.

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I don't think people really understand how bad Chris Davis is with all these alternate "worst ever" deals being cited.

 

A guy like Mauer might not have lived up to the expectations of his contact, but he's not worthless. These other guys signed fairly bad contracts, but they often still have some positive or arguable value. Maybe a guy's bat failed a bit, but they still at least offered some hitting ability or some plus defense, or some speed. Whatever.

 

Chris Davis is actually worthless all around. On pace for the worst season ever? And honestly, almost no reason to believe it's going to get better.

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1 hour ago, verycoolnin said:

Can the O's make him the richest AAA player ever? 

Classic example of a player playing because of the investment. Almost anyone else would be gone. 

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On 6/8/2018 at 3:08 PM, taobball said:


A high value contract that pays out decent in the front half and is a disaster in the back half is kinda the norm. IMO it should be the expectation. 

 

The ARod contract I actually think should continue to be the shining example of what realistic expectations for most mega-contracts should be. ARod had (if my math is correct), 9.6 WAR that first year, 5.0 the second, and 4.0, 3.9, and 4.0 WAR the next three seasons. Even if he did nothing the back half (and he didn't he had two seasons of 2.5 WAR) this is still a fine contract. You have to take the worse-5 years to get the best-5 years on a lot of these contracts. ARod earned his back with WAR.

 

Same CC. Yeah CC's expensive. Yeah you're paying for bad years. But you knew that you would be when you signed it. You weren't signing that deal and thinking "2017 this guys still gonna be a BEAST!" Yeah the extension was probably unnecessary, but even the first year of the EXTENSION CC was still a great pitcher. It was a poor decision to extend, but as a whole CC earned his money. 

 

I'd say the Ellsbury contract is easily the YANKEES worst, so it's funny to me that you didn't even mention it. 

 

But Chris Davis gave the team nothing. The first year of his contract he was worth roughly the equivalent of ARod that 2015 season (I believe) when he hit for power one last time. Obviously having such a great negative WAR is having such an impact on this figure, but ARod earned like 26.5 WAR those first five seasons? Chris Davis now has 1.1 WAR over the first three seasons of his Orioles extension, and will have taken home 69 Million in salary by the end of the year for that 1.1 WAR, and has four more $23 Million yaers left. 


There were a few deals I didn't mention...Ellsbury belongs.  Putting the amount of money in perspective with the time frame of the contract...Carl Pavano's contract was a disaster (4 for $42Mil I think) BUT he was hit HARD by injuries, Kei Igawa ($26Mil fee plus $20Mil contract...bidding war with Red Sox), and how about $32Mil for 32 yo Jose Conteras as the Yankees were hoping for another El Duque.  Remember, I'm just talking Yankees...there are other teams with worse contracts...Vernon Wells/Jays, Werth and the Nats, Fielder and the Rangers...

 

BUT...Chris Davis belongs in the conversation for sure.

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6 hours ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

I don't...at all.  It was a horrible deal.

 

I'm sorry, but a $26M deal, or whatever it was, just isn't one of the worst in history.  It just isn't.

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15 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

I'm sorry, but a $26M deal, or whatever it was, just isn't one of the worst in history.  It just isn't.

 

That's fine you feel that way, I completely disagree.  Put 2007 money in perspective.  The contracts that year were the bell-curve-killing AROD 10-4-$275Mil and after that the average deals size/money was I believe in the $10Mil per year range (Average not all).  Torii H got 5-4-$90M...Mariano got 3-4-$45Mil, etc.  My opinion is and will always be dropping $26Mil on a 44 y.o. pitcher at the end of his career was a colossal waste of money, and equates to the dead years money they paid the likes of CC at end of his last contract...which is less than what Clemons got paid, and $26Mil 10 years ago is more like $36Mil today.

 

You disagree...I get it...I think you're as wrong as you think I am however.

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