Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook


midlip

Recommended Posts

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 469
  • Created
  • Last Reply
5 hours ago, Arrowhead said:

What's in store for the best first baseman in baseball this year? I'm guessing a projection of 100 35 100 15 at least from him. What do you guys think?

 

I'll easily take the under on homeruns with the humidor coming.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook
2 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Goldschmidt now ranked 11 in Yahoo’s updated rankings. That’s pretty insane value if you can get him there, humidor be damned.

What's interesting about the slide is the humidor scare probably has people not even wanting to select him there.  He's such a good hitter...to the point that I'd be willing to bet he can adjust to what the humidor does

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/27/2018 at 7:07 PM, daethfromabove1979 said:

Goldschmidt now ranked 11 in Yahoo’s updated rankings. That’s pretty insane value if you can get him there, humidor be damned.

 

 

That is so weird. Everyone is overreacting a little bit to the humidor thing. I just noticed that today in mock drafts that he's going late 1st round now. They just are installing a humidor, not adjusting the gravity in that ballpark.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Picard56 said:

 

 

That is so weird. Everyone is overreacting a little bit to the humidor thing. I just noticed that today in mock drafts that he's going late 1st round now. They just are installing a humidor, not adjusting the gravity in that ballpark.

 

Humidor or not, there's a lot of high end talent in the league right now. Going late 1st is nothing to scoff at.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Humidor and the fact that he's now on the wrong side of 30 are probably both factoring in a little. I know performance typically doesn't drop off until 32-33 for most guys but for my first rounders I like to draft guys in those peak peak years (25-29). 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, absknicks said:

Humidor and the fact that he's now on the wrong side of 30 are probably both factoring in a little. I know performance typically doesn't drop off until 32-33 for most guys but for my first rounders I like to draft guys in those peak peak years (25-29). 

 

You can't be the wrong side of 30 when you are just 30 years old. He did not show any signs that this year could be the start of a decline. I find it a little annoying that people consider 30-35 years old for baseball. Maybe for other sports, but not Baseball. Some players are good until 37-38.  I am not looking to draft in the first round because I don't like the idea of drafting a 1st baseman in the first round. I just find it so weird his stock tanked just after the humidor announcement. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

You can't be the wrong side of 30 when you are just 30 years old. He did not show any signs that this year could be the start of a decline. I find it a little annoying that people consider 30-35 years old for baseball. Maybe for other sports, but not Baseball. Some players are good until 37-38.  I am not looking to draft in the first round because I don't like the idea of drafting a 1st baseman in the first round. I just find it so weird his stock tanked just after the humidor announcement. 

 

 

Goldy is healthy, showed no signs of decline. Look at Donaldson, Cruz, Cano and Miggy. I think around 34 is where you need to be cautious. But I think 30 - 34 should be stable years baring injury. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah....assume a 15% drop off in hrs due to humidor (which seems very conservative) and a 15% drop off in sbs due to age, you are still looking at 30hr/15sb/100/100/.300 guy.  hard to argue with those numbers....

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the humidor factored in to Yahoo dropping him down their rankings but it seemed like the drop happened once JD Martinez signed with BOS so maybe they're factoring in the both of them when they slid his ranking down.  Either way, I'm a believer in skill set and would happily take Goldy if he's available when I draft 8/12 or coming back in the second round.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Picard56 said:

 

You can't be the wrong side of 30 when you are just 30 years old. He did not show any signs that this year could be the start of a decline. I find it a little annoying that people consider 30-35 years old for baseball. Maybe for other sports, but not Baseball. Some players are good until 37-38.  I am not looking to draft in the first round because I don't like the idea of drafting a 1st baseman in the first round. I just find it so weird his stock tanked just after the humidor announcement. 


And most fall off way before, then. Not sure what your point is, tbh. And who said 30-35 was too old to play baseball? Never heard any legitimate baseball fan say that. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, absknicks said:


And most fall off way before, then. Not sure what your point is, tbh. And who said 30-35 was too old to play baseball? Never heard any legitimate baseball fan say that. 

 

you haven't??? Usually when a player reaches at least 32 people start the conversation that he is getting old.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Picard56 said:

 

you haven't??? Usually when a player reaches at least 32 people start the conversation that he is getting old.

Nelson Cruz says hello.  

 

Depends on the player and their mileage and history.  

 

Rick Wilkins is who I meant previously

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, STLSU said:

Nelson Cruz says hello.  

 

Depends on the player and their mileage and history.  

 

Rick Wilkins is who I meant previously

 

I'm not saying 32 is old. I am making the argument that generally other people start to think players are old around 32 years old.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone at all concerned with the way his stolen base attempts seemed to take a nosedive after the first few months?

 

Apr: 7 SB, 0 CS
May: 5 SB, 2 CS
Jun: 1 SB, 2 CS
Jul: 2 SB, 0 CS
Aug: 2 SB, 1 CS
Sep/Oct: 1 SB, 0 CS

 

I mean, ignoring April and May, that's just six bags over his last 100 regular season games... Which translates to, what, 9 or 10 steals over 162? 

 

Idk maybe I'm taking too much from a four month sample size, but that just seems oddly low for what we've come to expect from Goldy.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This was my favorite guy to roster last season. All this stuff about humidor/aging scares me. This year our league is turning into a keeper (keep 2 players) and I was trying to scoop him up. Maybe I should target someone younger. I loved having him from the unsuspecting steals from 1st base and 1st base is a shallow position as it is.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...