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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook


midlip

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of all the articles i read, nobody seems to have a good handle on this humidor nonsense.... could it REALLY impact it that much?? I have a hard time believing it will 

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5 minutes ago, midlip said:

of all the articles i read, nobody seems to have a good handle on this humidor nonsense.... could it REALLY impact it that much?? I have a hard time believing it will 

 

Simply put, more humidity equals less bounciness and a heavier baseball, both of which we know impact batted ball distance, because physics.  Nobody can say for certain how large the effect will be, because we have basically one natural experiment in Denver and a bunch of confounding factors, but experts have looked it and have estimated it could be a significant effect.

 

We won't know until we have at least a full season of data, but that won't stop people from publishing hot takes based on a week or two of games.  :)

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I'm going to be thrilled if this guy falls to the late 1st because of the humidor scare. I just don't see it taking away more than a handful of HRs for him. His average HR distance last year was 406 feet and in 2016, 412 feet. Looking at his spray charts for 2016 and 2017, if I counted correctly, only about 14 of his 60 HRs were hit to center field. The deepest part of Chase Field is 413 feet and dead center is 405 feet. Based on his average HR distance of 409 feet over the last 2 season how many of those home runs do you really believe will no longer be out of the park? The majority of his HRs were hit to left field or left-center where the wall ranges from 330 feet to about 375 to straight away left-center. I know this is imperfect logic because I don't have all the numbers but logically thinking I just can't see it really hurting his numbers. Plus one of the things I look for in a 1st round player is an elite floor. Take away 5 HRs from his total last year and say 5 runs and 10 RBIs. You're still left with a player who got you 31 HR, 112 runs, 110 RBIs, 18 SB, and elite ratios out of the 1B position. That is an elite floor. 

 

I forgot to add the spray charts for 2016-2017 as a reference. 

 

 

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On 3/9/2018 at 8:12 AM, jeffr913 said:

This year our league is turning into a keeper (keep 2 players) and I was trying to scoop him up.

 

I love GOldy as much as the next guy, but I probably wouldnt be targeting him in the first several picks of a keeper draft. 

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5 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

I'm going to be thrilled if this guy falls to the late 1st because of the humidor scare. I just don't see it taking away more than a handful of HRs for him. His average HR distance last year was 406 feet and in 2016, 412 feet. Looking at his spray charts for 2016 and 2017, if I counted correctly, only about 14 of his 60 HRs were hit to center field. The deepest part of Chase Field is 413 feet and dead center is 405 feet. Based on his average HR distance of 409 feet over the last 2 season how many of those home runs do you really believe will no longer be out of the park? The majority of his HRs were hit to left field or left-center where the wall ranges from 330 feet to about 375 to straight away left-center. I know this is imperfect logic because I don't have all the numbers but logically thinking I just can't see it really hurting his numbers. Plus one of the things I look for in a 1st round player is an elite floor. Take away 5 HRs from his total last year and say 5 runs and 10 RBIs. You're still left with a player who got you 31 HR, 112 runs, 110 RBIs, 18 SB, and elite ratios out of the 1B position. That is an elite floor. 

 

I forgot to add the spray charts for 2016-2017 as a reference. 

 

 

Capture.JPG

 

Goldy is just such a good all around hitter I don't think it matters.  Arizona could put a force field around Chase Field  to double the effect of gravity and this guy is still going to produce top 10 numbers.

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On 2/14/2018 at 4:13 PM, Ry34No said:

I just watched a video where Scott white on CBS dropped him from 3 overall to 11. Which to me is insane considering he is not a player based on solely his power. I think it's something to beware of but yes it's still goldy. I would say a decrease in homers to settle in the 25 range but still elite stats everywhere else.

 

Scott White constantly says maddeningly stupid things.  He has to be one of the worst fantasy analysts out there, especially when it comes to any type of strategy.

 

I can see lowering Goldy but not nearly that much, and not for the reason Scott White thinks.

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7 minutes ago, Arrowhead said:

Guy dropped from the 3rd overall pick in yahoo to the 13th. Crazy I'm some drafts he's going in the second round. People are taking this humidor thing too far

 

Just got Bryant, Goldy on the 12,13 turn in a yahoo mock draft.......please tell me this happens in my real draft. please. 

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1 minute ago, wxmilkman said:

 

Just got Bryant, Goldy on the 12,13 turn in a yahoo mock draft.......please tell me this happens in my real draft. please. 

I think Bryant is ranked 12th and Goldy now 13th. So yea if you have the 12th pick in the draft that could very well happen

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17 minutes ago, herschel said:

So we're not really worried about this humidor thing, right?

Why would we be worried? Arizona has scored 8 & 9 runs in each of the first 2 games. 

Goldy has walked almost half of his PAs so far. Nothing to worry about.

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A few things:

1) His BB% sits at 37.5 right now. Hard to get anything going right now.

2) I know it’s hard not to overreact, but we’re 3% done with the season. It’s like being worried about your stud RB at halftime of game 1. R-E-L-A-X

3) If you’ve never owned Goldy, he’s a “relative” slow starter. Looking at career splits (in roughly the same number of ABs):

Mar/Apr- .285/25 HR

May- .319/38 HR

June- .322/35 HR

 

It’s quite possible the HR numbers drop this season. But he’s still going to be a stud, 5 category producer. 

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He’ll be fine. He gets into some mini funks here and there and it looks like he’s started in one combined with not getting a whole lot to hit. Also puig robbed him of a walkoff homer in their 18 hour long game. 

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