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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook


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3 hours ago, BohCountyBats said:

 

How long do we take this LOL approach until we get worried? This is my first round draft pick. He is currently ranked 191st in Yahoo categories a month into the season. I am extremely skeptical he will return 1st round value at this point. Can we not all admit he was a bad (end of the round) 1st round draft pick?

 

I suggest you and @summersoff7 go to the Joey Votto 2018 thread and read the last two pages.  Yes a slump is a slump and it feels bad watching your guy be bench-worthy.  But the reason you paid a first round pick is because you know that he will turn it around.  And when he does it will be glorious. 

 

For example, some folks were peeing their pants over Votto's slow April.  You know what he did?  He went out and got an engineering degree and literally built a house complete with a home theater so these people could watch him hit dongs for the rest of the year in comfort.  Then he went thusly over the past 14 days: .298 AVG, .525 OBP, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 10 R, 18 BB, 9K.  Would you like that production on your team?  Of course, so stop fretting and enjoy the ride.  Goldy will be mashing soon enough.

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I’m all about patience. But he’s at an alarming k rate right now.  Just seems lost.  I haven’t seen this many half hearted swings I feel like in his entire career combined.  Definitely not calling him a busy, but if you aren’t at least somewhat concerned then you aren’t watching his ab’s.

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Some bad trends here.  K rate up 8%.  BABIP .377 and average only .262.  Walk rate is within range, soft rate up 7%.  Swing rates about the same.  Some less than desirable matchups coming up.  I’d set May 13th as the buy window.  If he’s struggling then make some offers and get him on your team.  Some real losers on schedule.  This guy is a proven stick, in a good lineup.  Some issues small sample wise but it will even out.  Be on the prowl for a nice big opporutunity.

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I’m telling you.  I’m concerned. Maybe he does heat up.  But I’m about to start shopping.  Best option would be to package him plus one or two more players in a 2 for 1 or 3 for 2.  Use his name and quantity to mask the issue at hand and try to get back 90 cents on the dollar.  

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2 minutes ago, hgh22 said:

small sample size but the home/away splits are troubling. 

 

image.png.496219022b89003fadf0239e14922540.png

I’d be worried about the humidor talk if AJ Pollock’s splits weren’t the opposite. So I’m not too worried about these splits at this point.

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30 minutes ago, dannyusf said:

I am benching tonight. Home stats are sucking and he's lost plus Cole pitching shut out. 

 

I applaud you for (hopefully) taking one for the team and getting him off the schneid. 

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30 minutes ago, dannyusf said:

I am benching tonight. Home stats are sucking and he's lost plus Cole pitching shut out. 

 

Same. His last game on my team and he's riding the pine. Everything ends poorly or it wouldn't end. 

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I've owned Goldschmidt since he was in AA and this is the worst slump I can recall.  Maybe the humidor has him fretted although it doesn't appear to be effecting his team mates.  I dunno

 

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On 5/2/2018 at 7:14 PM, Cmilne23 said:

Some bad trends here.  K rate up 8%.  BABIP .377 and average only .262.  Walk rate is within range, soft rate up 7%.  Swing rates about the same.  Some less than desirable matchups coming up.  I’d set May 13th as the buy window.  If he’s struggling then make some offers and get him on your team.  Some real losers on schedule.  This guy is a proven stick, in a good lineup.  Some issues small sample wise but it will even out.  Be on the prowl for a nice big opporutunity.

Buy low.  These matchups were awful for a guy in slump.  This guy is a cerebral hitter, he studies a ton of tape.  Dates for matchups listed above.  Send the buy low offers out in that period.  Good times coming ahead. 

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7 minutes ago, nykid1981 said:

Verlander, Kershaw, Wood, Scherzer, Strasburg in 5 of his next 6 games.  This slump isnt ending anytime soon.

See above.  May 13th is your discount double check window.  If you want value buy in and around that mark. 

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