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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook


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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

What does Goldy as well as the coaching staff, local media, announcers and even their talk radio say about this prolonged slump?  It has to be a hot topic in Arizona, right?

You would think it would be a hot topic, but they have a winning record, so I guess it gets swept under the rug. ??‍♂️

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Out of all the early round guys that have been struggling, Goldy is the one that really concerns me. He doesn't have Harper's BABIP problem. His BABIP is .309 and he's still hitting just .218. His hard contact is just 36.5%, but more concerning his soft contact has skyrocketed to 23.5%, more than double his career number. His exit velocity is 88.1, a full three mph less than last season. Maybe that goes up when the hard contact goes up/soft contact comes down, but then there's the post earlier on this thread showing he hasn't been all that great for 500 PA's. His K rate has gone up, and he's missing more pitches in the zone. Age 30 season isn't usually where I look for guys to start declining, but maybe that's what we're seeing here. I'm sure he'll finish with respectable stats, but I'm not sure we'll be seeing the Goldy we're used to.

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2 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

Out of all the early round guys that have been struggling, Goldy is the one that really concerns me. He doesn't have Harper's BABIP problem. His BABIP is .309 and he's still hitting just .218. His hard contact is just 36.5%, but more concerning his soft contact has skyrocketed to 23.5%, more than double his career number. His exit velocity is 88.1, a full three mph less than last season. Maybe that goes up when the hard contact goes up/soft contact comes down, but then there's the post earlier on this thread showing he hasn't been all that great for 500 PA's. His K rate has gone up, and he's missing more pitches in the zone. Age 30 season isn't usually where I look for guys to start declining, but maybe that's what we're seeing here. I'm sure he'll finish with respectable stats, but I'm not sure we'll be seeing the Goldy we're used to.

I've been on the patient side of things this entire time but this is getting scary, and these numbers speak for themselves. Are we in agreement that if you can get a Rizzo for him, you do it? Goldy has been as consistent of a rock as they come, but the sell window may even be closing. What about an Abreu? With Pollock hitting the way he is at home, the humidor can only be so much of an excuse.. At this rate I feel like aborting mission may be wise, as these advanced metrics and large 500AB sample size are no joke. 

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Like I’ve been saying, I’ve been concerned. Watched a weekend series about a week ago or so and his ab’s looked awful.  He just looks disinterested honestly.  Lazy fly outs to right center.  The most alarming stats to me are his k rate and soft contact percentage.  I mentioned earlier, he only struck out 147 times last year and this year he’s already at 48.  Have been concerned and still am concerned.  I’m packing daily to try to recooperate value. 

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1 hour ago, Motown_Magic said:

I've been on the patient side of things this entire time but this is getting scary, and these numbers speak for themselves. Are we in agreement that if you can get a Rizzo for him, you do it? Goldy has been as consistent of a rock as they come, but the sell window may even be closing. What about an Abreu? With Pollock hitting the way he is at home, the humidor can only be so much of an excuse.. At this rate I feel like aborting mission may be wise, as these advanced metrics and large 500AB sample size are no joke. 

I'd do it at this point. Saw he wasn't putting up Goldy numbers and was thinking about making a move in a dynasty but the more I dig into the numbers the more I'm realizing that might not be wise. 

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14 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

Here's a depressing blind player comparison for Goldy owners:

 

AwDolWX.jpg

 

Player #4 is Goldschmidt

Player #3 is Daniel Descalso

Yeah it’s been a brutal year. Add his hitting woes in with the downward trend of his speed/SB’s and we surely don’t have the same Goldy. 

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On 5/11/2018 at 2:54 AM, chud12 said:

Yes this is concerning as I am trying to buy    Goldy but I’m starting to get freigtened to death here by was occurring. 

 

If you are concerned then why are you buying? That's like saying "yeah, i'm concerned this car isn't going to start, but i just bought it for $1,000"

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What's really scary is that he's already struck out 51 TIMES in just 39 games....He's on pace for 170+ K's for the first time in his career.

 

I've seen him get off to slow starts before...but usually it doesn't take him 1.5 months. 

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Currently on pace for:

 

16 HR

103 runs

50 RBI

8 SB

 

The runs are nice, but the other numbers are pretty brutal. He's still drawing a lot of walks, but he's striking out a ton. Both his wOBA and wRC+ indicate that he has been slightly better than average this season. His soft% is way up and his hard% is down.  His average exit velocity is 88.5 MPH, which is right around guys like Bell, Candelario, Calhoun, Descalso, etc. Pretty crummy for a first round pick.

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8 hours ago, Bravesfan155 said:

 

If you are concerned then why are you buying? That's like saying "yeah, i'm concerned this car isn't going to start, but i just bought it for $1,000"

 

Anytime your buying low on a guy there is risk involved because there is that chance a turn around might not happen. In Goldy’s case I still have to give up substantial value because of his name, hence the concerned feelings I have.  It’s a mote point now as I pulled the offer i had out for him. 

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I’ve gone to the WW for 1b help for the first time since I’ve had Goldie on my team (his rookie season). Not sure what’s up with him but my offense has been brutally bad this year, think it’s time to mix it up while waiting to see if he gets out of this funk. 

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1 hour ago, KrunK said:

I’ve gone to the WW for 1b help for the first time since I’ve had Goldie on my team (his rookie season). Not sure what’s up with him but my offense has been brutally bad this year, think it’s time to mix it up while waiting to see if he gets out of this funk. 

 

Have to think he turns it around a bit, but I'm really starting to think that we're not going to see classic Goldy again. 

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I really think this is much more then a slump.  There just has to be something else going on.  Whether he's playing hurt, or there is just other issues he is dealing with.  Hard to say he is suddenly declining at 30 but maybe he is.  Even during a slump, good hitters will often have good AB's and hit the ball well with no results.  The majority of his AB's are just non-competitive, and I just see hardly any hard contact.

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10 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

Have to think he turns it around a bit, but I'm really starting to think that we're not going to see classic Goldy again. 

Way too early to jump to that conclusion but it’s never a positive sign. Doesn’t seem like the type of guy whose just gonna fall apart at 30yo but ya never know. Time will tell 

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