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Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook


midlip

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Feel bad for all the owners that wasted a 1st round pick on him.

 

When your first rounder doesn't show up...unless you had a solid draft picking up nice bargains late round (like haniger, e rosario, didi....)

 

Its tough to compete....

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47 minutes ago, KrunK said:

Way too early to jump to that conclusion but it’s never a positive sign. Doesn’t seem like the type of guy whose just gonna fall apart at 30yo but ya never know. Time will tell 

 

In general I agree, but he's been just okay since the back half of last season, and his peripherals this year are just outright bad. I think he's better than what he's been showing lately, but I do think he's out for the count.

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32 minutes ago, nykid1981 said:

Again, just a total non-competive AB.  He is so far behind any fastball. 

 

Looks like he's swinging a cement bat half the time.

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as a owner in 1 league i would take any top 15-17 player i like for goldy. for ex jdm, springer (if healthy)

maybe get lucky with stanton owner but unlikley after nice 4-4 from stanton

 

you would have better chance offering goldy + mid level sp if you have the sp depth

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9 hours ago, summersoff7 said:

No boos from the home fans?  Very nice crowd they got there in Arizona

 

Oh I heard a few boos after Madson K’d him. Being a Goldy owner for 15’, 16’ and 17’ the guy just does not look anything close to his self. Not good for owners, I want to buy but I see absolutely nothing. If his name wasn’t Goldschmidt he’d be a FA in every league. He can’t be this bad can he?

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7 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

as a owner in 1 league i would take any top 15-17 player i like for goldy. for ex jdm, springer (if healthy)

maybe get lucky with stanton owner but unlikley after nice 4-4 from stanton

 

you would have better chance offering goldy + mid level sp if you have the sp depth

 

I can't imagine any owner wouldn't take JDM for him right now

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Haven’t been paying attention to him and didn’t realize he’s not good anymore.

 

never really been a fan but can’t argue that he’s been a good one. Don’t be shocked if he has a Votto type resurgence

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7 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

as a owner in 1 league i would take any top 15-17 player i like for goldy. for ex jdm, springer (if healthy)

maybe get lucky with stanton owner but unlikley after nice 4-4 from stanton

 

you would have better chance offering goldy + mid level sp if you have the sp depth

 

No way in hell are you getting a top 25 player for Goldy, heck you would be lucky to get a legit top 50 player. 

 

 

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Just looks like a slump to me.  Nothing really stands out crazy.  Most unusual stat is he’s seeing 70% first pitch strikes, career it’s been 57%.  So he’s constantly in a hole.  Here’s some interesting data he’s only been in   1 2-1 count all year, 1 2-0 count all year, 2 3-1 counts, 2 3-0 counts.  On the reverse he’s been 0-2 in 20 at bats, 1-2 in 31 at bats.  That’s 35% of his at bats this year he’s sitting in a deep hole.  He was 30-151 in those counts last year.  Good for a .198 average.  He’s just been in a high amount of pitchers counts to start the season.   Diamondbacks are a pretty analytical driven organization so I’m sure they’ll look at the data and you’ll see him start swinging at more first pitch fastballs.  When Lamb comes back they may want to move Pollock to 2 so it gives a high base stealing threat on to give pitchers more to worry about, and Goldschmidt more high % fastball counts.

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H U M I D O R

U

M

I

D

O

R

 

Goldy at home this season: .133 batting average, .213 SLG%. 0 HR, 3 RBI

Goldy on the road this season: .294 batting average, .559 SLG%, 4 HR, 9 RBI

 

Chase Field this season: 0.79 Park Factor (21% below major league average, 28th ranked ballpark for offense)

Chase Field 2016-2017 seasons: 1.21 Park Factor (21% above major league average, 3rd ranked ballpark for offense)

 

Physicists were saying before the season that home runs would fall 25-50% at Chase Field this season, and base hits would be suppressed as well. 

 

But almost no one wanted to take this threat seriously because it didn't jibe with their intuition. 

 

Physics > Intuition

 

Yes, there are some Arizona hitters who have been just fine as Chase Field this season (AJ Pollock) and Goldschmidt's splits will not continue to be this extreme.

 

But there's no question that the humidor is a BIG factor. Arizona hitters have gone from having one of the best offensive ballparks in baseball to having to deal with what may now be one of the worst offensive ballparks in baseball.

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28 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

H U M I D O R

U

M

I

D

O

R

 

Goldy at home this season: .133 batting average, .213 SLG%. 0 HR, 3 RBI

Goldy on the road this season: .294 batting average, .559 SLG%, 4 HR, 9 RBI

 

Chase Field this season: 0.79 Park Factor (21% below major league average, 28th ranked ballpark for offense)

Chase Field 2016-2017 seasons: 1.21 Park Factor (21% above major league average, 3rd ranked ballpark for offense)

 

Physicists were saying before the season that home runs would fall 25-50% at Chase Field this season, and base hits would be suppressed as well. 

 

But almost no one wanted to take this threat seriously because it didn't jibe with their intuition. 

 

Physics > Intuition

 

Yes, there are some Arizona hitters who have been just fine as Chase Field this season (AJ Pollock) and Goldschmidt's splits will not continue to be this extreme.

 

But there's no question that the humidor is a BIG factor. Arizona hitters have gone from having one of the best offensive ballparks in baseball to having to deal with what may now be one of the worst offensive ballparks in baseball.

 

The humidor isn't making him watch called strikes and hack at offerings out of the zone.  He just looks lost.  Most likely the problem is between his ears and if that's the case his home splits could be down b/c he puts more pressure on himself at Chase.  Doesn't have to be the humidor.

 

AJP is on a career year tear w/ the humidor in place (and is doing better at home than on the road).  Reynolds, Trea and Harper didn't seem to have any trouble w/ it yesterday either.  

 

The laws of Physics affect everyone relatively equally.  They don't apply just to Goldy.

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1 minute ago, colepenhagen said:

@ReyesMurphyWright

 

humidor should have little affect on goldys k% which is 8-10% higher and his avg/obp

 

Again, I'm not saying his struggles are all humidor driven - but it's definitely a very significant factor.

 

And yes, humidor effects batting average too, not only home runs. Humidor makes the ball travel slower and less far after connecting with the bat. This impacts batting average

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