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Josh Donaldson 2018 Outlook


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It kinda sucks to say, but I'm getting very strong Andrew McCutchen vibes that we may be heading to a place where, not saying Donaldson is by any means not a good/great player still, but clearly not a player in the top couple round conversation. He is only 32, but 33 next year, and like McCutchen at one point, he's a hot streak at the end of 2017 from having a year + (and looking strongly like two straight) lost years. 

 

Don't read too much into this. I'm not by any means saying he IS done being a first round type, but he's at an age that, now looking like two lost seasons, can be largely concerning. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

It kinda sucks to say, but I'm getting very strong Andrew McCutchen vibes that we may be heading to a place where, not saying Donaldson is by any means not a good/great player still, but clearly not a player in the top couple round conversation. He is only 32, but 33 next year, and like McCutchen at one point, he's a hot streak at the end of 2017 from having a year + (and looking strongly like two straight) lost years. 

 

Don't read too much into this. I'm not by any means saying he IS done being a first round type, but he's at an age that, now looking like two lost seasons, can be largely concerning. 

 

Especially to teams preparing to bid for his services this offseason.

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2 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Especially to teams preparing to bid for his services this offseason.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if he took a QO or an otherwise negotatied 1 year deal. Or at the least a deal with limited money but a 1-year opt out ala-Mike Moustakas but with a bit more cheddar. 

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Yeah never trust the players evaluation of the situation especially one looking for a mega deal. I'll believe he's healthy when I see him leg out a close play at 1st and not pull up lame. Too bad cause I expected a monster season and instead he's probably the biggest bust on my roster so far.

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I actually was hoping that he would need to go on the DL, so that I could plant him there and not feel compelled to keep running him out there and getting nothing in return except sinking further and further in the standings.

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14 hours ago, Skrappy1 said:

I actually was hoping that he would need to go on the DL, so that I could plant him there and not feel compelled to keep running him out there and getting nothing in return except sinking further and further in the standings.

I actually agree. He's been one of my worst bats but I can't bench him

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Agree with @taobball.  One of my faves but its nearing time to bring in your farm guy in dynasty play.  He and JDMart and Murph are founding fathers of the newer swing plane analytics theorems but even the most active minds can not defeat father time forever.

 

Even with last year's near 150 OPS+ production he's got some red flags.  K% since 2016 has risen from 17% to 22.4% to 27.7% ATM.  WRC is barely above average at 104.  BABIP is .303 around league average so there's been some fortune on those GBs hit which is currently @ 48%.  FB% is around 33%, off his 40%ish career marks. HR/FB rate is down a bit to 16%.  Soft contact now just over 20%, again rising.  At least his pull rate has fallen so his core and hips hopefully still allow him to stay inside the FBs.  He has negative values on sliders and sinkers now though.  Contact % off by 10% from 2015.  Zcontact% off by 8%.  IFFB % up.  Etc etc.

 

Lots of season left but just make backup plans at 3rd base.

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31 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Agree with @taobball.  One of my faves but its nearing time to bring in your farm guy in dynasty play.  He and JDMart and Murph are founding fathers of the newer swing plane analytics theorems but even the most active minds can not defeat father time forever.

 

Even with last year's near 150 OPS+ production he's got some red flags.  K% since 2016 has risen from 17% to 22.4% to 27.7% ATM.  WRC is barely above average at 104.  BABIP is .303 around league average so there's been some fortune on those GBs hit which is currently @ 48%.  FB% is around 33%, off his 40%ish career marks. HR/FB rate is down a bit to 16%.  Soft contact now just over 20%, again rising.  At least his pull rate has fallen so his core and hips hopefully still allow him to stay inside the FBs.  He has negative values on sliders and sinkers now though.  Contact % off by 10% from 2015.  Zcontact% off by 8%.  IFFB % up.  Etc etc.

 

Lots of season left but just make backup plans at 3rd base.

 

Well it's the same with McCutchen (Cabrera somewhat similar as well) that's why I'm making the comparison. He's factually hurt. He's factually better than this. Of these two things I'm certain. But if you've been those things for two years, can we be at all surprised if you never come back to MVP? Especially at... not an "advanced" age, but not everyone can be Beltre.

 

McCutchen was a top-5 MVP vote-getter for I believe 5 straight years. Last year he had a solid year and contributed with decent power, good BA, and a great BB% to get a 3.6 WAR. This year he's started a bit slower in SF, but he's still walking and still pacing closer to a 1.5-2.0 WAR. He's a good baseball player. He's just not the same. And I think that may be Donaldson now. 

 

I'm hoping he doesn't move to the national league next season. I think he should stay in the AL. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Well it's the same with McCutchen (Cabrera somewhat similar as well) that's why I'm making the comparison. He's factually hurt. He's factually better than this. Of these two things I'm certain. But if you've been those things for two years, can we be at all surprised if you never come back to MVP? Especially at... not an "advanced" age, but not everyone can be Beltre.

 

McCutchen was a top-5 MVP vote-getter for I believe 5 straight years. Last year he had a solid year and contributed with decent power, good BA, and a great BB% to get a 3.6 WAR. This year he's started a bit slower in SF, but he's still walking and still pacing closer to a 1.5-2.0 WAR. He's a good baseball player. He's just not the same. And I think that may be Donaldson now. 

 

I'm hoping he doesn't move to the national league next season. I think he should stay in the AL. 

Agree with above. 

 

His original calf injury was kind of strange.  He attributed it to changing his offseason workout regimen per team instructions.  I think he probably favored against the other calf which probably factored into its straining/cramping.  His lower half has likely been imbalanced and unable to handle the torque of his uniquely balanced and explosive swing.  I hope he can get right in-season.

 

Good news is that his hands and core/hips seem fine.  He must have inflamed his right shoulder muscle(s) in offseason workouts (weights or defensive drills?).  It seems not to be chronic as he is generally in the field.  Nonetheless he has a much better chance of continued above average production with some occasional DH time.

 

Again, we only have limited facts and perspective and he could be Beltre or Cruz one again (including limited Ks and swinging strike rate).  I know if it is physically possible for him, I wouldn't bet against JD.

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4 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

At what point do those who were laughing at Gray earlier in this thread admit maybe he was onto something? 

 

A broken clock is still right twice a day...

 

He also had Ozuna 29th overall and Schoop 42nd. He's going to hit and miss, just like everyone else.

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3 minutes ago, WaKe21334 said:

 

This is one of the biggest contract season flops, I have seen in quite some time. 

 

Guys get injured, but I’m sure he’s forcing the issue because it’s a contract year. I don’t think he’s toast by any means. Just take a look at his 1st half/2nd half splits last year. The only problem is the Jays have until July 31st for him to rebound to still get a good haul... they definitely should have traded him over the winter.

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15 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

Guys get injured, but I’m sure he’s forcing the issue because it’s a contract year. I don’t think he’s toast by any means. Just take a look at his 1st half/2nd half splits last year. The only problem is the Jays have until July 31st for him to rebound to still get a good haul... they definitely should have traded him over the winter.

 

Lot of advanced stats point to him not rebounding anywhere near the point of what he got to last year. I bought on the shoulders of last years second half when I got him in roto for this second half run. I took this guy over Jose Ramirez , JD Martinez and Aaron Judge. This guy is the biggest reason I sit where I am to this point. Had I taken any of the above mentioned players, I’d be on top. Makes me sick to my stomach.

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