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Joe Mixon 2018 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

So you’re talking Mixon in the 2nd round?

 

That’s the question for all Mixon truthers...

 

When I look at rookie RBs in almost every case future stars come into the league strong.  Even Gurley flashed as a rookie, he was a Pro Bowler in 2015.

 

Maybe Mixon will earn that 2nd round grade in the preseason, but he hasn’t earned it yet.

 

Le'Veon Bell did not shoot out of the gate strong

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16 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Sure.  But Mixon was the worst in the league out of all the starters.  Other RBs has similar situations and did well.

 

The question is how much does Mixon want it?  Mixon has character concerns, was that a factor?  Mixon is physically talented enough to do better than 3.5.

 

I can see some parallels between Mixon and Gurley, but Dalton + Green should have been enough to keep the opposing D’s somewhat honest.  Mixon also only had 30 receptions... that’s a suspiciously low number.

 

My point is Mixon in the 4th is worth the risk.  Mixon in the 2nd doesn’t have a good risk/reward.

Mixon's character concerns - while legitimate - are a bit overblown.  To my knowledge, he only has the one incident.  It's highlighted because he broke a girls jaw (in semi self-defense? not to excuse) but mostly because there's video of it.  Because it's on video, he had to be kicked off the team.  Other players have had similar or worse (again, not to excuse) incidents that aren't on camera, hence they stay on the college team and don't get tagged as glaringly as character concerns.  He had to face lots of consequences, including scrutiny. Oklahoma coaches welcomed him back for pro day workouts and didn't expel him.  All of which is a long way of saying, I don't think his character should be a big concern going forward.

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I just did a mock (Yahoo, 11/12 spot) and he fell to 35.  In my league where I'll have Zeke and AK41 as 1st and 2nd round keepers, if Mixon is there at 35 I'll take him (and hope for Fitz, Tyreek, ARob, or Alshon at 38).

Point is, even with 2 stud rbs already, if he falls to back half of 3rd he's a great pick.  I think Price (rookie C from Ohio State) is going to a big difference maker.  Biggest ? is the coaching staff.

Oh and FYI: Mixon averaged 5.0 ypc over the last 4 games of the season

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5 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I just did a mock (Yahoo, 11/12 spot) and he fell to 35.  In my league where I'll have Zeke and AK41 as 1st and 2nd round keepers, if Mixon is there at 35 I'll take him (and hope for Fitz, Tyreek, ARob, or Alshon at 38).

Point is, even with 2 stud rbs already, if he falls to back half of 3rd he's a great pick.  I think Price (rookie C from Ohio State) is going to a big difference maker.  Biggest ? is the coaching staff.

Oh and FYI: Mixon averaged 5.0 ypc over the last 4 games of the season

Mixon is currently 25th in PPR

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

 

That’s an average of people’s mock drafts.  I’ve seen him go as high as 17th.

 

The risk/reward is obviously much better at 35.  At that price I’d start to be interested.  Mixon as my 2nd RB wouldn’t be bad, though I still like Guice better at his current price of 32 (moving up fast unfortunately).

 

FYI: Gio’s was 4.4 ypc for the entire season.

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54 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Sure.  But Mixon was the worst in the league out of all the starters.  Other RBs has similar situations and did well.

 

The question is how much does Mixon want it?  Mixon has character concerns, was that a factor?  Mixon is physically talented enough to do better than 3.5.

 

I can see some parallels between Mixon and Gurley, but Dalton + Green should have been enough to keep the opposing D’s somewhat honest.  Mixon also only had 30 receptions... that’s a suspiciously low number.

 

My point is Mixon in the 4th is worth the risk.  Mixon in the 2nd doesn’t have a good risk/reward.

 

I honestly haven’t done any mocks. Didn’t know he was going in the 2nd... that has to be 12 teams. Most of the leagues I play in are 10. 

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20 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I always have troubles taking upside vs known commodities myself. 

 

Generally when I do they turn out to be Davante Parkers and when I don't they turn into Le'veon Bell. 

 

That said I'm personally on the Mixon fence. Leaning towards a pass for established players though, but we'll see. Preseason starts next week, Lotta time to back track these comments. 

If Mixon’s ADP is in the 2nd that’s a problem for me.  I want all the WRs that are available in the 2nd round.

 

I like upside but in round 4+ in the early rounds I want consistency and proven production.

 

I’m not a fan of the Bangles coaching in general.  It’s very much prove it, before I’m a buyer. 

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If you want him you're going to need to take the plunge late 2nd/early 3rd.  There's a Mixon truther in almost every league with some fantasy die hards in it although ESPN default ranks have him late 30s right now so there's a chance he could fall into the late 3rd.  Right now I have him after the the top two tiers of RBs (big 4, all the sophomores except CMC & Freeman & Gordon) and WRs (AB/Julio/Nuke/OBJ/MT/Adams/KA/AJG/Evans/Hilton) and Gronk/Kelce.  That puts him as my #24 overall player for me so I'm fine taking the plunge late 2nd/early 3rd if everyone else is gone but I can usually get Hilton and Kelce in that range as well.

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I’m not even a big fan of Mixon. In fact, last season he was near the top of my DND list. However, taking him late 2nd or top of 3rd isn’t that bad of an idea.

 

Bernard is his only competition and he’s clearly more of a COP back. Mixon is talented and should have every opportunity. However, the biggest reason he isn’t a bad idea in that range is it’s full of players with questions. Adams isn’t that talented, McKinnon hasn’t shown much, CMC probably won’t have as much volume, Henry has Lewis, Shady is shady, and practically everyone else has questions around them.

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25 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

If you want him you're going to need to take the plunge late 2nd/early 3rd.  There's a Mixon truther in almost every league with some fantasy die hards in it although ESPN default ranks have him late 30s right now so there's a chance he could fall into the late 3rd.  Right now I have him after the the top two tiers of RBs (big 4, all the sophomores except CMC & Freeman & Gordon) and WRs (AB/Julio/Nuke/OBJ/MT/Adams/KA/AJG/Evans/Hilton) and Gronk/Kelce.  That puts him as my #24 overall player for me so I'm fine taking the plunge late 2nd/early 3rd if everyone else is gone but I can usually get Hilton and Kelce in that range as well.

Well if you’re picking there you can likely get both. There’s no way I’d take Hilton and Kelce especially in standard. Hilton + Mixon is a damn good combo for the turn.

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53 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

If Mixon’s ADP is in the 2nd that’s a problem for me.  I want all the WRs that are available in the 2nd round.

 

I like upside but in round 4+ in the early rounds I want consistency and proven production.

 

I’m not a fan of the Bangles coaching in general.  It’s very much prove it, before I’m a buyer. 

 

I hear you. 

 

Generally in the first few rounds you won't necessarily win your league but you can lose it IMO. 

 

That said Mixon is still someone I can't just outright dismiss as of today. 

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9 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who would you consider an established RB drafted near Mixon though?  I don't see any except McCoy and I'm staying away from him for multiple reasons.

 

I don't see any established RB's. 

 

And I agree. Shady is a DND for me. 

 

I only like WRs around where he's being taken. 

 

On FFC PPR ADP the next RB I currently want (myself) as of today is Kenyan Drake.

 

(18) CMC -  (43) Drake. 

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1 hour ago, ShowStopper said:

 

I honestly haven’t done any mocks. Didn’t know he was going in the 2nd... that has to be 12 teams. Most of the leagues I play in are 10. 

 

Maybe you haven't been looking around these message boards lately.

 

But 12 is the new standard we speak in round here. 

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Do you believe in Billy Price? I think that is the biggest key to Mixon's season.  

 

Obviously, the line is better.  Cordy Glenn's arrival means a drastic improvement at the LT spot. Boling is solid at LG. Hopkins and Oguebhi are likely to be below average.  

 

They are relatively known commodities.  Billy Price is the unknown and the difference between this O-line being an above average group or being a thorn in Mixon's side again. 

 

So who believes in Price?

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Mixon is definitely the post polarizing player for me this year. I'm drafting first overall so he's in consideration for the 2/3 turn. His upside is tantalizing but his floor is something to worry about. 

 

Pros:

- Slimmed down almost 20 pounds to 218. Should help with explosiveness and elusiveness 

- Upgraded oline

- Healthy Eifert and Ross

- More rushing opportunities (Marvin Lewis ran the ball way less than his norm)

- One year under his belt

- All goaline touches

 

Cons:

- Extremely inefficient last season and looked sluggish compared to his Oklahoma days.

- While oline is upgraded on paper we really wont know till the regular season

- Threat of Gio Bernard eating into his workload

- Bill Lazor and his usuage of runningbacks particularly Lamar Miller

 

What to do, what to do......

 

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9 minutes ago, wildvikestwins said:

True. Hopefully I’m the lone Joe Mixon truther haha

The more I think about it, the more bullish I am on him.  Vastly improved line, slimmed down, clear role from the start.

And remember that last year he was coming off a missed season, so maybe a little rusty.

And I'm a believer in Price.  Should be a rebound year for Cincy... unless Marvin Lewis drags the team down

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10 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

The more I think about it, the more bullish I am on him.  Vastly improved line, slimmed down, clear role from the start.

And remember that last year he was coming off a missed season, so maybe a little rusty.

And I'm a believer in Price.  Should be a rebound year for Cincy... unless Marvin Lewis drags the team down

Idk about that.  Glenn isn't a good run blocker.  Price is an unknown rookie.  We'll see.

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13 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

The more I think about it, the more bullish I am on him.  Vastly improved line, slimmed down, clear role from the start.

And remember that last year he was coming off a missed season, so maybe a little rusty.

And I'm a believer in Price.  Should be a rebound year for Cincy... unless Marvin Lewis drags the team down

I agree there’s a lot to like. I’m a believer in him and Price. Unless it’s a full point PPR, RB’s usually run the league and everyone knows his ceiling. 

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14 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who would you consider an established RB drafted near Mixon though?  I don't see any except McCoy and I'm staying away from him for multiple reasons.

howard has done everything asked of him and more but gets passed over bc of the can't catch publicity 

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