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Drafting Tips - Name Brand vs. Generic


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6 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

For 10-15 more HRs, 40 more RBI+runs, and a better batting average?

 

I mean, that’s pretty significant, no?

 

On the surface yes... and at some point in your draft Machado could very well just be the best bat available.  

 

But I do think Machado's fantasy value is vastly over rated.  Where as Healy is the opposite vastly under rated.

 

If you take Healy's 72 game rookie sample in 2016 and pro rate it over the same amount of PAs as Machado in 2016 you have a very very similar player.  Much to similar for those players to be separated by 15 rounds.

 

Now yes Healy had some regression in his sophomore season but that's generally expected in a player's sophomore season.  But I could make the argument that Machado regressed much worse than Healy.  But Machado has the name and has had the health the past few years to where his counting stats are always strong.  

 

Machado's durability is very surprising to me over the last few years as if you remember he had knee issues early in his career.  Off the top of my head Machado had 2 knee surgeries by the time he was 21.  Bad knees don't just go away.  I will say he obviously must have had a successful surgery, but be aware of it. 

 

Healy's power absolutely disappeared in the 2nd half last year.  I remember he got hit in the head with a bad hop and had a concision and was out for a few days can't remember if he hit the concussion list or not... But when he came back he was just off from that point forward.  If Healy is healthy (the hand issue isn't going to help here lol) he could be a very good value come draft day.

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for every player after the top 25 or so you can find a player being drafted 40 to 50 spots later that you could call "generic" and who "might" match the stats of the higher ranked player   j

This seems to be overstating the case, especially considering Cain out-earned Benny significantly on the player rater last year while playing in a much worse situation than the one he'll be in this se

I might not even start drafting until round 10.

4 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

On the surface yes... and at some point in your draft Machado could very well just be the best bat available.  

 

But I do think Machado's fantasy value is vastly over rated.  Where as Healy is the opposite vastly under rated.

 

If you take Healy's 72 game rookie sample in 2016 and pro rate it over the same amount of PAs as Machado in 2016 you have a very very similar player.  Much to similar for those players to be separated by 15 rounds.

 

Now yes Healy had some regression in his sophomore season but that's generally expected in a player's sophomore season.  But I could make the argument that Machado regressed much worse than Healy.  But Machado has the name and has had the health the past few years to where his counting stats are always strong.  

 

Machado's durability is very surprising to me over the last few years as if you remember he had knee issues early in his career.  Off the top of my head Machado had 2 knee surgeries by the time he was 21.  Bad knees don't just go away.  I will say he obviously must have had a successful surgery, but be aware of it. 

 

Healy's power absolutely disappeared in the 2nd half last year.  I remember he got hit in the head with a bad hop and had a concision and was out for a few days can't remember if he hit the concussion list or not... But when he came back he was just off from that point forward.  If Healy is healthy (the hand issue isn't going to help here lol) he could be a very good value come draft day.

 

It's more about taking a walk ever for me with Healy. 

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22 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

The CBS piece doesn't make sense.

 

I mean, I get the premise -- it's been done -- but you how can put guys with both upside and short track records in the brand name / generic categories?

 

How is Rhys Hoskins generic lol?

 

By the same token, guys like Bregman and Benintendi aren't exactly "brand names" with their all of 1-2 years of track records.

 

 

 

But both Benintendi & Bregman have top prospect hype and made it to the major leagues very fast which only compounded the hype that was already put upon them.  Now that they've had some success at the MLB level they are quickly turning into "brand names".   Especially with what Bregman did in the post season.  Hell more fans today probably know who Bregman is than Nick Markakis (who very well could retire with 3k hits).  Markakis is probably the perfect example of generic, but his game is just so blah for fantasy purposes.  

 

Hoskins on the other has had a lot less hype surrounding him and is honestly probably the best hitter of all 3... Very likely to be in my eyes at least and I'll be the first one to tell you Hoskins got lucky as hell last year.  But that's what happens when really good fortune meets really good talent.  But I agree there is nothing generic at all about Hoskins.

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2 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

If he ever figures that out he could make a really big leap in production.

 

Yeah I mean, absolutely agree. The fact of the matter is I'll almost never pay for a player with Healy Plate Discipline unless they've proven they can sustain success over a number of years-- but the fact of the matter is I don't have to pay a whole lot for Healy right now. Where he's going really nothing at all. So I'm all on board especially at the current opportunity/cost. 

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20 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah I mean, absolutely agree. The fact of the matter is I'll almost never pay for a player with Healy Plate Discipline unless they've proven they can sustain success over a number of years-- but the fact of the matter is I don't have to pay a whole lot for Healy right now. Where he's going really nothing at all. So I'm all on board especially at the current opportunity/cost. 

 

Indeed.  He's like 240 - 250ish range?   His hand injury probably keeps his ADP there or lower.  Unless he really explodes in the later part of spring (he just started swinging again).  

 

I will say though I hate hitters who get wrist or hand injuries as they can a lot of times nag and end up being worse than an injury that is severe enough to just keep them out of the lineup.  But even with that I still like Healy I was on board last year where he ended up being a solid draft pick, so I'm hoping this is the year he brings the value.

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4 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Indeed.  He's like 240 - 250ish range?   His hand injury probably keeps his ADP there or lower.  Unless he really explodes in the later part of spring (he just started swinging again).  

 

I will say though I hate hitters who get wrist or hand injuries as they can a lot of times nag and end up being worse than an injury that is severe enough to just keep them out of the lineup.  But even with that I still like Healy I was on board last year where he ended up being a solid draft pick, so I'm hoping this is the year he brings the value.

243 when I searched it on Fantasypros before making that statement. 

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2 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

There's a lot more upside with Benintendi though.  

Here's one I'll get ripped to shreds for I'm sure.

 

Why draft Manny Machado when you can draft Ryon Healy many rounds later?

Healy isn't guaranteed to be in the lineup every day at the present time though 

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8 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Healy isn't guaranteed to be in the lineup every day at the present time though 

 

The M's have said they traded for Healy to be their every day 1B... So not sure where this information is coming from?  Unless Dan Vogelbach has been given the job without my knowledge.

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5 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

The M's have said they traded for Healy to be their every day 1B... So not sure where this information is coming from?  Unless Dan Vogelbach has been given the job without my knowledge.

They have a rule 5 player also who could see time at 1st. 

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43 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

They have a rule 5 player also who could see time at 1st. 

 

On the active roster and playing aren't the same thing.  Plus a DH and Healy can play 3B to spell Seager.  But yeah this could steal some ABs but if Healy hits I don't think he's threatened much by this.

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21 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

I don't know where to ask this, but this thread could work.

is there any type of set up/website/program/whatever where based on certain statistics there could be an ideal draft spot for those statistics. rather than drafting based on names, one could look up just the projected statistics. for example 80/20/80/.280 would be ideally drafted in round 5 (or whatever round would match those statistics).  I don't know if it's possible because there are all different statistics for R/HR/RBI/AVG/SB.

the point with this would be to draft based on just the statistics and not overdraft based on a name.

 

The problem here is that nobody agrees on the projections.

 

It's extremely simple to do if you use one specific set of stats. Not complicated at all.

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1 hour ago, Roto4500 said:

 

The problem here is that nobody agrees on the projections.

 

It's extremely simple to do if you use one specific set of stats. Not complicated at all.

 

I think one can do it on their own, but I wondered whether any fantasy baseball mathematics geek came up with what rounds were better to draft for certain statistics to put one in a better position to win.

it reminds me of something like they had in the move Moneyball where certain players statistics were calculated out to get X number of wins, or worth X contract.

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That’s a huge difference in BA - maybe even more of a divide than should be expected.  But if that holds true, it merits that much of a divide in roto.

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7 hours ago, Brett Butler said:

480 AB's / 39 HR's / .267 BA 

449 AB's/ 41 HR's / .209 BA

 

Bellinger vs. Gallo.

 

Is +.050 BA 8-10 rounds more valuable?

 

If you're in an OBP league, Bellinger is projected at .341 OBP and Gallo at .344. B)

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7 hours ago, Brett Butler said:

480 AB's / 39 HR's / .267 BA 

449 AB's/ 41 HR's / .209 BA

 

Bellinger vs. Gallo.

 

Is +.050 BA 8-10 rounds more valuable?

 

If you're in an OBP league, Bellinger is projected at .341 OBP and Gallo at .344. B)

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47 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

If you're in an OBP league, Bellinger is projected at .341 OBP and Gallo at .344. B)

 

Great comp...He's severely under-ranked in OBP leagues and I just don't understand why. Perhaps because his pre-ASB OBP was .313 vs his post-ASB OBP of .357 and people aren't buying the change? I believe in it. He improved his BB/K from .35 to .43 in that time which is something I always like to see. He also reduced his soft contact% and improved his GB/FB during that time. There's a lot to like about Gallo especially in an OBP league so it's odd that his ranking compared to Bellinger even in OBP leagues is so greatly different (Bellinger is 28 and Gallo is 67 on ESPN). 

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