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2018 Auction Strategies / Values etc.


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3 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

 

Thanks for the link, but my God, has there ever been a more basic approach?

His team looks like any team you would draft in a standard 12-team traditional draft. His entire strategy is basically "Just budget your roster according to how you would pick in a standard draft."

 

His team is fine, but it's nothing flashy.

His strategy is actually borderline problematic in a 12-team league. If you are drafting to have a full team of players that you like, you don't have anyone to drop. In standard 12-team redraft leagues, you want to have stars. I'm not saiyng Stars/scrubs approach, but you want to be loaded high and then get some sleepers.

 

There's a reason guys like Albies, Moncada, Schwarber, Happ, Olson go for $3 or so. It's because in a redraft league with limited rosters they have a ton of risk holding on to them on your roster and missing out on hot free agents early on.

 

You want good draft strategy in 12 team standard roster leagues?

 

Load up on the second/third/fourth tier players then have a long list of sleepers that you want to try to pick out from. Do not overpay for anyone, unless you have to (i.e. everyone is paying huge money for the stars).

 

I mean his UTIL/OF and SP suck on his squad. Ok, they don't suck, but their not really good.

 

Look at a team I drafted

 

C none

1b Jose Abreu

2b Dozier

3b Bregman

SS Trea Turner

OF Pollock

OF Upton

OF Yelich

U J. turner

U Buxton

Bench: Miggy Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos, Bird, Moncada

SP: Berrios,, Godley, Quintana, Walker, Corbin, Stroman, Davies

RP Treinen, Miller, Herrea

 

That's the type of offense you want.

 

Or you look at something like this, and this is even more feasible:

 

C Wilson Contreras

1b Freddie Freeman

2b Jose Ramirez

3b Manny Machado

SS Jorge Polanco

OF Kris Bryant

OF AJ Pollock

OF Yellich

U Dozier

U Polanco

B: Eddie Rosario

 

SP Godley, Lester, Luis Castillo, Stroman, Corbin, Chatwood

RP Herrera, Bradley, Robertson, Green, Soria, Claudio

 

That's a dope team with the only meh spot being SS (Once MAchaado gets SS elig. he moves there, Bryant can go to 3b, then move Rosario into OF).

 

 

 

The problem sometimes with not paying for a star is that if that is the trend and you get none - you often end up with money at the end, also if you are doing the work to have a "long list of sleepers"  then you should win that late $cheap portion of the auction, giving you the flexibility to spend more on the big money guy - especially in a 12-team mixed type league.  When you get into only leagues you need money to just buy guys who play everyday

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Modeling auction after a snake draft can be helpful to people new to auction leagues or with a new group of drafters. It could be a good baseline to work off of rather than pegging to a strategy that could be upset if others are going after the same strat.

 

I'm also a bit confused about the criticism because the drafted team in the article does align somewhat with what CrypTvill's saying. The OF/UTIL/BN is full of OF dart throws that could be easily dropped or cycled through. IF/C is where all the high producers are. Pitching staff has some security in RP/SP as well, with some dart throws like Maeda, Green, and Gray. 

 

Personally, I love auctions because it requires knowledge/opinions about the entire draftable player pool. That and seeing folks nominate a $5 Matt Kemp in a 10—team mixed... 

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29 minutes ago, Quinn the Ezkamo said:

Modeling auction after a snake draft can be helpful to people new to auction leagues or with a new group of drafters. It could be a good baseline to work off of rather than pegging to a strategy that could be upset if others are going after the same strat.

 

I'm also a bit confused about the criticism because the drafted team in the article does align somewhat with what CrypTvill's saying. The OF/UTIL/BN is full of OF dart throws that could be easily dropped or cycled through. IF/C is where all the high producers are. Pitching staff has some security in RP/SP as well, with some dart throws like Maeda, Green, and Gray. 

 

Personally, I love auctions because it requires knowledge/opinions about the entire draftable player pool. That and seeing folks nominate a $5 Matt Kemp in a 10—team mixed... 

Really think this hits the nail on the head, its why I love auctions too in that in a "draft" someone is just taking the next name off some list, but when that player is called out in an auction how do they differentiate between said player and one right around him, if they dont know much, they call the name other people bid and they move on, where in a draft they get him.  

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39 minutes ago, Quinn the Ezkamo said:

Modeling auction after a snake draft can be helpful to people new to auction leagues or with a new group of drafters. It could be a good baseline to work off of rather than pegging to a strategy that could be upset if others are going after the same strat.

 

I'm also a bit confused about the criticism because the drafted team in the article does align somewhat with what CrypTvill's saying. The OF/UTIL/BN is full of OF dart throws that could be easily dropped or cycled through. IF/C is where all the high producers are. Pitching staff has some security in RP/SP as well, with some dart throws like Maeda, Green, and Gray. 

 

Personally, I love auctions because it requires knowledge/opinions about the entire draftable player pool. That and seeing folks nominate a $5 Matt Kemp in a 10—team mixed... 

The problem is, the players he has aren't exactly drop-material. You aren't going to be dropping Matt Olson if he struggles the first 3 weeks. etc. 

These are 'super-sleepers' in the sense that they have value and should be owned in every 12 team league. These aren't $1 last round players. You don't drop these types of guys, but there's a lot of risk with them compared to a team 2nd/3rd tier stars. 

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6 hours ago, parrothead said:

So like projected value based on a guess/performance or their actual price in the auction?  This years keepers were CRAZY - records smashed for most expensive players kept, the number of expensive players ($40+) went went from normal 2-3 to 10 this year.  

The values have little to do with their expected price at auction but should instead be based on the projected value of their stats for your format.  The difference between those is if you know Fernando Rodney will go for $20 at auction and you project him to get 20 saves, 45 ks and a 4.6 era and 1.37 WHIP then those stats aren't going to be worth close to $20 at auction so instead of $20 value you would have something like $1-2 value.  If you think he might repeat last season then you upgrade that value.  You can pull auction values off of Fangraphs or FantasyPros or many other sites and sources.

 

Going into an auction without values for people is going to make it really difficult to execute on a strategy.

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@CrypTviLL

 

I wasn't suggesting you draft those players, I just think that Fibonacci sequence could be nice easy way to set up your draft budget according to your needs.

 

I actually start planning for auction from back end of my roster, identifying target players that are going for couple of bucks or less. Second phase would be targeting stars that aren't over hyped and have reasonable price and filling it with best value for buck in between.

My end result usually is unspectacular pitching and good batting.

 

That works for me, but targeting specific players is a very individual and league dependent and no matter what is you goal in draft getting a budget plan to fit every target is always most challenging part.

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, kittenmittons said:

I only nominate players I don't want until the end when you are getting 1 dollar guys.

 

Just nominate them for 1 dollar and if you get them it is a huge value. 

 

Huge value if you can get them. Which is Yahoo public league.

Just finished my draft (private redraft running since 2002), and there were 4 managers who saved up money. I was one of them. And there is always a guy with "scottish ancestry" who just can't make himself to spend money, and ends up with 20-30 dollars left on the table.

Those "value" guys you talking about are going for more.

 

What Im sayin is the most important thing to do is preparation.

You must know the players, their prices, their real $ values, which is different than their price, especially in a non-default league.

And in private leagues you must know your competition, and analyze previous drafts.

It is important to spend a lot of money on studs.

 

Always build a team, instead of just going for good value players.

For example, If you have Rizzo you don't want Murphy just because he is 5 dollars cheaper than his value or cost. You can only use him as a Util, which means that in your league he will be evaluated with gen pop instead of 2b, and loses a lot more value than what you thought you saved. Or if you put Rizzo to 1b, than you lose a lot of value on Rizzo.

You shoot yourself in the gut with a smile on your face. Entertaining for your leaguemates, but no real value in that for you.

 

And finally Auction mocks are good the get yourself familiar with the draft, and with the app, but actually it is quite worthless trusting those mock result prices, unless you play versus autodraft teams.

Edited by JCD
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On 3/15/2018 at 5:10 PM, rando said:

I like duke of queens' idea about floating cheap closers. Not sure it can work in my league where closers go for a pretty penny. Parrothead's #2 is the classic auction conundrum. One way to give yourself a slightly better shot is to draft one more stud or solid starter level player a bit earlier, knowing it forces you to take a few more $1-3 guys later. You'll have more chances to shop from your sleeper/keeper list, and in theory that should result in a higher number of 'hits,' if not a higher hit rate.

Well the cheap closers idea worked and didnt work. I got some cheap SPs and hitters that I wanted(Haniger-$2, Beckham-$1, Teheran-$1 to name a few)but wound up with no closers. First time in 20 years I walked out of draft without a closer but am perfectly fine with it. They were going way too high for some reason this year. Closest thing I have to a closer is Boxberger. Last year I had 3 closers after the draft, only 1 of those was still closer at end of year and I still won saves. 

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11 hours ago, AHF said:

The values have little to do with their expected price at auction but should instead be based on the projected value of their stats for your format.  The difference between those is if you know Fernando Rodney will go for $20 at auction and you project him to get 20 saves, 45 ks and a 4.6 era and 1.37 WHIP then those stats aren't going to be worth close to $20 at auction so instead of $20 value you would have something like $1-2 value.  If you think he might repeat last season then you upgrade that value.  You can pull auction values off of Fangraphs or FantasyPros or many other sites and sources.

 

Going into an auction without values for people is going to make it really difficult to execute on a strategy.

If your league only allows 1 keeper per team and they are:

Trout Value $57, Cost $45

Altuve Value $52, Cost $35

Stanton Value $54, Cost $25

Arenado Value $45, Cost $46

Blackmon Value $37, Cost $30

Kershaw Value $53, Cost $40

Betts Value $43, Cost $38

Goldschmidt Value $38, Cost $35

Scherzer Value $45, Cost $20

Judge Value $33, Cost $1

 

So looking at Auction cost a year ago in my 13-teamer 260

Trout 66

Altuve 54

Arenado 58

Blackmon 26 (keeper)

Kershaw 54

Betts 34 (keeper)

Goldschmidt 54

Scherzer 46

Judge (3 Keeper)

 

I know there are folks who show up with values and they are the same guys every year who end up with money at the end, like that $20 you spent on Kyle Seager and the $25 you had leftover, you could of had Donaldson.   Those were last years auction prices which were some of the highest ever and this year Trout, Altuve, Arenado, Goldy and Schezer along with Harper 50, Machado 50,Rizzo 46 Sale 40 - 

 

So how would you evaluate/read whats going on?  I guess its just keeper inflation: Correa, Bryant, Lindor, Sanchez, Judge, C Seager - those 6 kept for a total of 20 bucks across the league.  

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