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Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook


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34 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Safety is merely a matter of perception.   WRs weren’t any “safer” than rbs last season from an injury or consistently standpoint-  nor is it “safe” thinking you can win the late rb lottery after drafting Sony Michel and Drake as your starters.      

 

When rbs are being gobbled up like stuffing on Thanx. day...the WORST thing you can do is ignore the trend and go WR early.   JMO

 

Completely agree with first paragraph, disagree with second. If RB heavy drafts allow you the opportunity to roster 4-5 top 15 WRs, that's how zero RB became popular in the first place. Every year, approximately half of the top 10 RBs by ADP will bust. Every year.

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Completely agree with first paragraph, disagree with second. If RB heavy drafts allow you the opportunity to roster 4-5 top 15 WRs, that's how zero RB became popular in the first place. Every year, approximately half of the top 10 RBs by ADP will bust. Every year.

I've been saying this for years. The reality is fantasy is unpredictable but this seems to work like clockwork. Everyone thinks their RB is very good but the reality is outside of a few (and that is a very very select few) the position is crazy unpredictable. Guys that you think are studs lose their job, battle little injuries, face coaching challenges, face gamescript challenges, face game flow challenges, face line challenges, and etc. WRs don't have a lot of these issues.

 

I will ask, in standard isn't it worth the risk to a larger extend? In PPR it makes sense but you almost need a very good RB in standard. 

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7 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Last year is one year though. Generally, I would say they are. Now, admitingly I don't have any data to back this up over a significant sample size nor do I have the time at this moment to compile something. Maybe @FFCollusion has something since he is a stat wizard. However, historically last year broke the trend of increase in passing game production and I would be willing to bet it is an anomaly rather than a new direction of the trend.

 

WRs are less likely to get hit and get hit less in general thus less injury. Plus, the question isn't are WRs safer than RBs in this particular question. It's more are Odell and Hopkins safer than Fournette? Possibly Thomas as well. I'd say the answer is yes. Brown without a doubt is safer. In fact, I would argue Brown is the safest player in the entire game by a substantial margin. 

 

3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Completely agree with first paragraph, disagree with second. If RB heavy drafts allow you the opportunity to roster 4-5 top 15 WRs, that's how zero RB became popular in the first place. Every year, approximately half of the top 10 RBs by ADP will bust. Every year.

 

Fair enough-  i think there’s something to the theory that we’ve entered a new age of the running back.   The 2014/15/16 seasons were transitory and now the talent is just phenomenal at the top.   You want to get 3 top 25 backs over 3 top 15 WRs if possible.

 

Brown is the standout for sure Hawks.  I’d agree he’s safer than the rbs going just after.  Apologies for detailing the thread- back to Lf

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

 

 

Fair enough-  i think there’s something to the theory that we’ve entered a new age of the running back.   The 2014/15/16 seasons were transitory and now the talent is just phenomenal at the top.   You want to get 3 top 25 backs over 3 top 15 WRs if possible.

 

Brown is the standout for sure Hawks.  I’d agree he’s safer than the rbs going just after.  Apologies for detailing the thread- back to Lf

I wouldn't say it derails the thread in any aspect. The question if a guy like Fournette being worth the risk over one of the stud 4 WRs (Brown, ODB, Hopkins, and Thomas) is a worthy question to ask. Also, yes I have Thomas in an elite tier. I would say over Brown no way he is worth it, over ODB and Hopkins it is preference, and over Thomas yes he is worth it. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I've been saying this for years. The reality is fantasy is unpredictable but this seems to work like clockwork. Everyone thinks their RB is very good but the reality is outside of a few (and that is a very very select few) the position is crazy unpredictable. Guys that you think are studs lose their job, battle little injuries, face coaching challenges, face gamescript challenges, face game flow challenges, face line challenges, and etc. WRs don't have a lot of these issues.

 

I will ask, in standard isn't it worth the risk to a larger extend? In PPR it makes sense but you almost need a very good RB in standard. 

 

I agree it's more worth the risk in standard leagues to focus on RBs heavily in early rounds. But WRs with high TD upside (Adams, MT) can be a great alternative in the 2nd round. 

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43 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

When rbs are being gobbled up like stuffing on Thanx. day...the WORST thing you can do is ignore the trend and go WR early.   JMO

100% disagree. Don't go into the draft with a Zero RB strategy OR a RB heavy strategy. If one avenue presents itself as a superior option you should take it. 

 

I have won both ways, it doesn't really make a difference as long as you can avoid injury, draft reasonably well, and have good in season management. There is also some luck involved. For instance last year one of my teams was just done after week 4 even though I got some pretty good value at WR with OBJ, Cooks, and TY with some good mid round RB1/2s like Ingram. I would have been in a great spot had OBJ not gotten injured AND had the Colts not been straight up lying about Luck's status. It was just too much to recover from even after making some trades. Conversely, the guy who won lost his first and second round picks to season long injury (DJ and Rodgers).  

 

You could have theoretically won with zero RB last year with dudes like Collins, Drake, Dion, Jamal Williams, and of course Kamara found on the WW. 

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26 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

100% disagree. Don't go into the draft with a Zero RB strategy OR a RB heavy strategy. If one avenue presents itself as a superior option you should take it. 

 

I have won both ways, it doesn't really make a difference as long as you can avoid injury, draft reasonably well, and have good in season management. There is also some luck involved. For instance last year one of my teams was just done after week 4 even though I got some pretty good value at WR with OBJ, Cooks, and TY with some good mid round RB1/2s like Ingram. I would have been in a great spot had OBJ not gotten injured AND had the Colts not been straight up lying about Luck's status. It was just too much to recover from even after making some trades. Conversely, the guy who won lost his first and second round picks to season long injury (DJ and Rodgers).  

 

You could have theoretically won with zero RB last year with dudes like Collins, Drake, Dion, Jamal Williams, and of course Kamara found on the WW. 

More rbs earlier is usually the superior option.   That’s where we disagree primarily.   Yes, some people will win other ways because as you pointed out-  the draft is only one part of success.   Your top 4 picks could bust and if you’re lucky/astute enough you could still win the league.   Happens all the time considering there’s hundreds of thousands of FF leagues.  And some guys are good at zero-rb- I am not LOL.   

 

  Step up and take your swings at the highest scoring, most important position in the game-  which is rb.    If you want to take Brown over Fournette or whatevs- fine.   But then try and land 2-3 stud backs right after.   Freeman/Mixon/Ajayi or Howard/ Mccoy/Royce, for example.   I want to start 3 rbs weekly, or 4 if it’s double flex.   

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

More rbs earlier is usually the superior option.   That’s where we disagree primarily.   Yes, some people will win other ways because as you pointed out-  the draft is only one part of success.   Your top 4 picks could bust and if you’re lucky/astute enough you could still win the league.   Happens all the time considering there’s hundreds of thousands of FF leagues.  And some guys are good at zero-rb- I am not LOL.   

 

  Step up and take your swings at the highest scoring, most important position in the game-  which is rb.    If you want to take Brown over Fournette or whatevs- fine.   But then try and land 2-3 stud backs right after.   Freeman/Mixon/Ajayi or Howard/ Mccoy/Royce, for example.   I want to start 3 rbs weekly, or 4 if it’s double flex.   

 

 

 

Again, disagree. RB heavy is by no means safer. Sure it works out if you ended up with Gurley, Hunt, and Dion Lewis but what if you ended up with Ajayi, Freeman, and Gilislee? Then your WR1 is probably a dude like Tate who is fine, but you "busted" (in that they did not come close to returning value) on your early RBs and your WRs are like 30-50 points behind dudes like Tyreek and Fitz while your RBs are not startable besides Freeman. Is that team better than one who didn't go RB heavy to start? Probably not. It works both ways. 

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4 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

Again, disagree. RB heavy is by no means safer. Sure it works out if you ended up with Gurley, Hunt, and Dion Lewis but what if you ended up with Ajayi, Freeman, and Gilislee? Then your WR1 is probably a dude like Tate who is fine, but you "busted" (in that they did not come close to returning value) on your early RBs and your WRs are like 30-50 points behind dudes like Tyreek and Fitz while your RBs are not startable besides Freeman. Is that team better than one who didn't go RB heavy to start? Probably not. It works both ways. 

It's not a problem in drafting RBs early. It's a problem in drafting a RB that was highly inconsistent and dependant on the line and a RB that was in a RBBC who lost his mastermind OC. I understand the risk but there is also good picks and bad picks at every position. Ajayi was clearly a bad pick last year. You can also use a guy like Dez and Cooks as a counterpoint. Gordon carries as low of a bust risk as anyone as does a guy like Jordan Howard. My issue is taking unproven RB commodities high. Those tend to bust in ridiculous percentages. 

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5 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

Again, disagree. RB heavy is by no means safer. Sure it works out if you ended up with Gurley, Hunt, and Dion Lewis but what if you ended up with Ajayi, Freeman, and Gilislee? Then your WR1 is probably a dude like Tate who is fine, but you "busted" (in that they did not come close to returning value) on your early RBs and your WRs are like 30-50 points behind dudes like Tyreek and Fitz while your RBs are not startable besides Freeman. Is that team better than one who didn't go RB heavy to start? Probably not. It works both ways. 

But...busting is ok Frogs.    Its why you play multiple leagues.    playing it safe and ending up with a team full of mediocrity is the true enemy.

 

 

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Eh, we've gotten off topic here but I disagree purposely going RB heavy early is the "best strategy". I've seen teams loaded with RB1 fall flat on their face because they can't find WR production. By the same token, I've seen teams loaded with WR1s fail because they couldn't find RBs. That's just how it goes sometimes. At the end of the day you win by finding productive players and history shows us that it's much easier to find a league winning stud RB1 on the waiver wire or later in the draft than it is to find a stud WR1. 

 

I will let you all get the last word because this is a LF topic, but look up some strategy videos/articles from some of the top fantasy people for an explanation of why most people do "zero RB" wrong and why it gets a bad rep. It is 100% viable if you draft correctly and understand how to build the team.

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9 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

Eh, we've gotten off topic here but I disagree purposely going RB heavy early is the "best strategy". I've seen teams loaded with RB1 fall flat on their face because they can't find WR production. By the same token, I've seen teams loaded with WR1s fail because they couldn't find RBs. That's just how it goes sometimes. At the end of the day you win by finding productive players and history shows us that it's much easier to find a league winning stud RB1 on the waiver wire or later in the draft than it is to find a stud WR1. 

 

I will let you all get the last word because this is a LF topic, but look up some strategy videos/articles from some of the top fantasy people for an explanation of why most people do "zero RB" wrong and why it gets a bad rep. It is 100% viable if you draft correctly and understand how to build the team.

 

The last word is:   DRAFT FOURNETTE

1700/15

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

The last word is:   DRAFT FOURNETTE

1700/15

I’d love to see those numbers! Think he’s gonna beast this year with being leaner, understanding he needs to avoid unnecessary contact, & an improved o-line 

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6 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

You want to get 3 top 25 backs over 3 top 15 WRs if possible.

 

I don't want to derail even further, nor dive into strategy specific discussions, or deep digging of stats, so long story short...

 

Yes, you want 2-3 top 25 backs.  Unfortunately there is very little scientific/statistical evidence that shows any direct correlation to top 25 backs, and drafting them in the first 2 rounds.  I've seen a few things here and there, but nothing substantial enough, with a big enough data size, to confidently project forward, or even persuade me to draft differently than I currently do.

 

6 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

When rbs are being gobbled up like stuffing on Thanx. day...the WORST thing you can do is ignore the trend and go WR early.   JMO

 

I vehemently disagree with this.  If you 'follow the trend' and start passing elite WRs for 2nd and 3rd tier RBs, ALL you're really doing, is allowing those top tier WRs to fall back to the players who already have top tier RBs.  Now they're ahead of you at both positions, and are still drafting at an advantage for the next cycle.

 

~~~General talk~~~

Every year so much effort is put into dissecting the first round or two.  I just don't really care about these rounds.  I have no desire to put much thought into them, I know who I like and who I don't.  Landing the 'right guy' in the first round pales in comparison, to simply avoiding the 'wrong guy'.  Drafts/seasons are won in the value picks, no matter the round.  Le'Veon Bell was a beast again last year, but he isn't what won people leagues.  3rd round gems like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins COMBINED with a non-failure in the first two rounds, is what makes you a playoff team.  Landing Hyde in the 4th, Ingram in the 6th, and Kamara in the 10th+ COMBINED with non-failure in the first two rounds, is what makes you a playoff team.

 

I don't care what position you draft in the first round, as long as they don't completely bust, you're already ahead of ~33% of your league.

You only have to beat 50% to make the playoffs.

 

There are certain draft spots this year where I would gladly ignore RB for the first 3 rounds, and it wouldn't phase me.  Anyone dead set on "positions" isn't analyzing players/talents/situations.  I don't recommend it.

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8 hours ago, Chardo said:

 

Doesn't that also describe Gurley?

Gurley tore his ACL. 

Fournette had nagging injuries.

ACLs aren't the ticking time bomb they used to be and now it's kinda a one time thing, like a broken bone, but the kind of chronic "nuisance" injuries Fournette has had are more concerning to me.

I don't think there's much danger that he misses a whole season, but I do see him as a guy that averages 14 played and 2 missed every year.  The fact that he's leaner bodes well.

 

Durability is a talent just as much as speed or strength.  Like speed and strength, durability can be improved through training, but ultimately some guys just have tougher bones and ligaments and muscles than others.  I think Fournette is tough, but his body is vulnerable.  It's also possible that he injured his ankle and it never healed properly.  If that's the case, it'll dog him for years but may some day pass.

Great talent, great situation, but it's hard for me to not assume he'll miss or be ineffective for a few games because that nagging ankle.

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12 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I don't want to derail even further, nor dive into strategy specific discussions, or deep digging of stats, so long story short...

 

Yes, you want 2-3 top 25 backs.  Unfortunately there is very little scientific/statistical evidence that shows any direct correlation to top 25 backs, and drafting them in the first 2 rounds.  I've seen a few things here and there, but nothing substantial enough, with a big enough data size, to confidently project forward, or even persuade me to draft differently than I currently do.

 

 

I vehemently disagree with this.  If you 'follow the trend' and start passing elite WRs for 2nd and 3rd tier RBs, ALL you're really doing, is allowing those top tier WRs to fall back to the players who already have top tier RBs.  Now they're ahead of you at both positions, and are still drafting at an advantage for the next cycle.

 

~~~General talk~~~

Every year so much effort is put into dissecting the first round or two.  I just don't really care about these rounds.  I have no desire to put much thought into them, I know who I like and who I don't.  Landing the 'right guy' in the first round pales in comparison, to simply avoiding the 'wrong guy'.  Drafts/seasons are won in the value picks, no matter the round.  Le'Veon Bell was a beast again last year, but he isn't what won people leagues.  3rd round gems like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins COMBINED with a non-failure in the first two rounds, is what makes you a playoff team.  Landing Hyde in the 4th, Ingram in the 6th, and Kamara in the 10th+ COMBINED with non-failure in the first two rounds, is what makes you a playoff team.

 

I don't care what position you draft in the first round, as long as they don't completely bust, you're already ahead of ~33% of your league.

You only have to beat 50% to make the playoffs.

 

There are certain draft spots this year where I would gladly ignore RB for the first 3 rounds, and it wouldn't phase me.  Anyone dead set on "positions" isn't analyzing players/talents/situations.  I don't recommend it.

Out of curiosity, who do you believe are the elite RBs this year? Is it just the top 5? Does it include Gordon, Fournette, Kamara, Hunt, Howard, and etc?

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15 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

There are certain draft spots this year where I would gladly ignore RB for the first 3 rounds, and it wouldn't phase me.  Anyone dead set on "positions" isn't analyzing players/talents/situations.  I don't recommend it.

I agree with most of your premise, particularly the part about the key being hitting on guys beyond the top 2-3 rounds, but if you don't hit on any of those guys and also don't draft a RB in the first 3 rounds that team is gonna be BAD. That's a little too risky IMO.

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9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Out of curiosity, who do you believe are the elite RBs this year? Is it just the top 5? Does it include Gordon, Fournette, Kamara, Hunt, Howard, and etc?

Howard would be a firm no IMO. Gordon, while solid, doesn't have the upside so I'd put his chances of leading the league in scoring this year at real close to zero. I'd give any of the other guys a shot at it. Gurley, Bell, Zeke, and DJ are in a tier by themselves IMO. Some would argue Barkley is in there as well, but he'd be a clear fifth if he was, especially with the hamstring news. That said, I think you could safely expect RB1 numbers from all the guys you listed there every week minus Howard.

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3 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Howard would be a firm no IMO. Gordon, while solid, doesn't have the upside so I'd put his chances of leading the league in scoring this year at real close to zero. I'd give any of the other guys a shot at it. Gurley, Bell, Zeke, and DJ are in a tier by themselves IMO. Some would argue Barkley is in there as well, but he'd be a clear fifth if he was, especially with the hamstring news. That said, I think you could safely expect RB1 numbers from all the guys you listed there every week minus Howard.

I personally wouldn’t safely expect RB1 production from Hunt.

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Out of curiosity, who do you believe are the elite RBs this year? Is it just the top 5? Does it include Gordon, Fournette, Kamara, Hunt, Howard, and etc?

 

I don't put much stock into the word Elite, but as of today, technically speaking, I'm only including the obvious 4, and I could argue that Zeke doesn't even fit, simply due to his lack of involvement in the passing game, relative to the alternates. (thus I have him ranked 4th among the obvious)

The issue with that mentality is I'm not saying Fournette, Barkley, Hunt etc can't be or won't be elite this year, it's just that they don't deserved to be drafted as such... yet.

 

Basically, you have to draw a line and decide where does Antonio Brown get drafted.  For me, I'm not passing on Antonio Brown because <take your pick> MIGHT be an elite back.  In my opinion that line is 4 backs who have proven to be elite regularly (within their health/ability).   None of the backs left on the board offer that yet, therefor I can not justify drafting them over Antonio Brown, even though I'm willing to concede their 'potential' to be and/or join that elite group by year's end.

 

All of those guys carry a risk, that in my personal opinion the first 4 don't.  When we're talking about 'elite NFL talents' we're splitting hairs in fantasy land.  Barkley might be every bit as good as LeVeon Bell... but I would never pass on Bell, who I already know is that good, for Barkley.  Barkley carries an unknown that Bell simply doesn't.  I'm not willing to invest in additional risk, when the opportunity cost is someone already as good as anyone could hope to have in fantasy.

 

Gordon nor Howard are among my top 12 backs.  

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3 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I don't put much stock into the word Elite, but as of today, technically speaking, I'm only including the obvious 4, and I could argue that Zeke doesn't even fit, simply due to his lack of involvement in the passing game, relative to the alternates. (thus I have him ranked 4th among the obvious)

The issue with that mentality is I'm not saying Fournette, Barkley, Hunt etc can't be or won't be elite this year, it's just that they don't deserved to be drafted as such... yet.

 

Basically, you have to draw a line and decide where does Antonio Brown get drafted.  For me, I'm not passing on Antonio Brown because <take your pick> MIGHT be an elite back.  In my opinion that line is 4 backs who have proven to be elite regularly (within their health/ability).   None of the backs left on the board offer that yet, therefor I can not justify drafting them over Antonio Brown, even though I'm willing to concede their 'potential' to be and/or join that elite group by year's end.

 

All of those guys carry a risk, that in my personal opinion the first 4 don't.  When we're talking about 'elite NFL talents' we're splitting hairs in fantasy land.  Barkley might be every bit as good as LeVeon Bell... but I would never pass on Bell, who I already know is that good, for Barkley.  Barkley carries an unknown that Bell simply doesn't.  I'm not willing to invest in additional risk, when the opportunity cost is someone already as good as anyone could hope to have in fantasy.

 

Gordon nor Howard are among my top 12 backs.  

Well, I wouldn’t take anyone other than the top 4 over Brown either. They can still be elite but Brown is on another level. 

 

Surprised Gordon isn’t top 12. Dudes been consistent as anyone. Also should get to eat on an improved team.

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