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Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook


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29 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I personally wouldn’t safely expect RB1 production from Hunt.

He'd be the other fringe guy just due to the uncertainty regarding Ware's role in the offense. Hunt did have 1800 and 11 last year and caught 53 balls though. Those are high-end RB1 numbers.

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16 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I don't put much stock into the word Elite, but as of today, technically speaking, I'm only including the obvious 4, and I could argue that Zeke doesn't even fit, simply due to his lack of involvement in the passing game, relative to the alternates. (thus I have him ranked 4th among the obvious)

The issue with that mentality is I'm not saying Fournette, Barkley, Hunt etc can't be or won't be elite this year, it's just that they don't deserved to be drafted as such... yet.

 

Basically, you have to draw a line and decide where does Antonio Brown get drafted.  For me, I'm not passing on Antonio Brown because <take your pick> MIGHT be an elite back.  In my opinion that line is 4 backs who have proven to be elite regularly (within their health/ability).   None of the backs left on the board offer that yet, therefor I can not justify drafting them over Antonio Brown, even though I'm willing to concede their 'potential' to be and/or join that elite group by year's end.

 

All of those guys carry a risk, that in my personal opinion the first 4 don't.  When we're talking about 'elite NFL talents' we're splitting hairs in fantasy land.  Barkley might be every bit as good as LeVeon Bell... but I would never pass on Bell, who I already know is that good, for Barkley.  Barkley carries an unknown that Bell simply doesn't.  I'm not willing to invest in additional risk, when the opportunity cost is someone already as good as anyone could hope to have in fantasy.

 

Gordon nor Howard are among my top 12 backs.  

I'm really hoping my league-mates are all in on RBs this year so maybe AB falls out of the top 5. The guy is the most valuable player in fantasy IMO. He is just a full tier above the next guy almost every year. I might even put Hopkins over the next tier of guys in after the top 4 and AB. It makes a HUGE difference to have an elite WR like that and if you hit on a couple of value/WW picks you are pretty much unstoppable. 

 

Interesting to hear the Gordon isn't in your top 12... Totally get Howard though. Where does Fournette fall in your rankings? I would be shocked if he wasn't top 10. Even with garbage efficiency last year he was feasting until injury. I also think he's an underrated receiver, but it's tough to count on that with Grant on the team.

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This thread seemed to have gotten derailed into a draft strategy debate.

 

Back to Fournette.  Nobody concerned that the recent reports that Corey Grant will get more run this year and thus cut into Fournette's workload?  It's given me pause when I see him available at the back of drafts.  Volume is his friend, and if it's not there, then I"m not feeling so great about him.

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9 minutes ago, CooL said:

This thread seemed to have gotten derailed into a draft strategy debate.

 

Back to Fournette.  Nobody concerned that the recent reports that Corey Grant will get more run this year and thus cut into Fournette's workload?  It's given me pause when I see him available at the back of drafts.  Volume is his friend, and if it's not there, then I"m not feeling so great about him.

 

I think Grant may have a small featured roll, but I'd still expect Fournette to receive 18-24 touches a game. Last year, JAX hardly used Grant on the offensive end, as he was the Special Teams guy.

 

This year, I'd expect him (Grant) to receive 3-5 carries a game, spelling Fournette for breathers, while also joining Yeldon as a change-of-pace back.

 

But I'd fully expect Fournette to get at the VERY MINIMUM, 18 touches.

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Fournette will obviously be the main man with about 20-25 touches a game, but Grant showed he can be a weapon on 3rd down & the 2-minute offense. That’s how it should shake out with Yeldon getting a couple carries a game to give Fournette a break

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook
17 hours ago, CooL said:

This thread seemed to have gotten derailed into a draft strategy debate.

 

Back to Fournette.  Nobody concerned that the recent reports that Corey Grant will get more run this year and thus cut into Fournette's workload?  It's given me pause when I see him available at the back of drafts.  Volume is his friend, and if it's not there, then I"m not feeling so great about him.

Nope. LFs clearly the better back, don’t gaf about ypcs. If anything I think they mean grant will get Yeldons carries, who is a jag in both senses of the word

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With all this Corey Grant hype...I feel like people forgot that Chris Ivory accounted for 112 carries and 21 catches last season on the Jags.  Much of that work came when Fournette was out, but even if Grant takes 80% of those touches, that should be acceptable for everyone in Jax not named Yeldon.  

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4 hours ago, Mr2Saint said:

Over/Under 14 total TDs?

Under. Usually only a very small number of players go over 14 TDs in a season (in 2015 in fact 14 was the highest) and everything needs to be absolutely perfect for the player and team to achieve this.

If you're going to give me 10.5 TD under/over then it's a much more interesting question. 

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20 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Under. Usually only a very small number of players go over 14 TDs in a season (in 2015 in fact 14 was the highest) and everything needs to be absolutely perfect for the player and team to achieve this.

If you're going to give me 10.5 TD under/over then it's a much more interesting question. 

9 TDs in 13 fantasy games last year? I'm definitely taking the over with 10.5 TDs, given improved fitness and offensive line.

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54 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

9 TDs in 13 fantasy games last year? I'm definitely taking the over with 10.5 TDs, given improved fitness and offensive line.

To clarify, I'm talking real life, where RBs on average play 13 and a bit games. Wait, I may still have the link in my clipboard:

 

http://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/nfl-injury-rate-analysis/

 

Btw I see Fournette drafted much lower in Yahoo than other sites. Most have him #8-10, Yahoo has #15:

https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/draftanalysis

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I'm all-in on Fournette because of his tantalizing upside. But, I still can't help but worry about his ankle-injury history. I'm glad he's dropped weight, but ankle injuries aren't just about weight. Cutting back and forth is part of the risk.

 

Fingers crossed that he lasts the whole season. Most likely, I think he'll start off with two great games against the Giants and Patriots, after which I'm hoping to trade him high. If not, I'll roll with him and take my chances.

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1 hour ago, owenmills said:

Not sure Fournette's ankles are really that problematic. 

 

I definitely consider his ankles to be problematic, but I’m unsure of how realistic it is for him to grow beyond this early designation as being injury prone. We’ve seen so many other players do it before but ankles seem more troublesome. 

 

Anyone with a more expert opinion on how likely it is for Fournette to get past these injuries for good? He appears to be playing without any limitation in camp and preseason so far. 

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2 minutes ago, SvanE42 said:

 

I definitely consider his ankles to be problematic, but I’m unsure of how realistic it is for him to grow beyond this early designation as being injury prone. We’ve seen so many other players do it before but ankles seem more troublesome. 

 

Anyone with a more expert opinion on how likely it is for Fournette to get past these injuries for good? He appears to be playing without any limitation in camp and preseason so far. 

 

Fournette is straight money. Don't overthink it. 

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Is this Yeldon/Grant getting more reps chatter legit? 

 

Gurley, Zeke, Bell, Barkley, DJ, Fournette are my top RBs (whatever order you want to put them in) ... I see Fournette go late 1 in mocks and it has me hoping I draw late first rounders in my money leagues. Would love to start a draft with Fournette and then Odell/Hopkins 

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1 minute ago, South Carolina said:

 

I don't know what league your in but mine is super competitive with no Janet's. These boys know football.

We're digressing a bit. I was trolling a bit and I prefer not to sling insults back and forth :) (especially with someone who generally talks sense)

 

Bottom line is: I personally love Fournette and may do a slight reach for him (according to Yahoo quite a reach). But for any player around the #10 mark overthinking is key, because there is so much competition, and so much hype.

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2 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

I don't know what league your in but mine is super competitive with no Janet's. These boys know football.

 

my big league's biggest loudmouth had pick 1 last year ... 16 year league, very little turnover, super competitive.

 

he started with DJ/ARod/Gronk ... blagged all night about how securing the top point scorer at three positions is key to dominance from the one hole.

 

now, we don't have a Janet from accounting, but .... to quote a certain pugilist; "everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouf"

 

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