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Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook


fakespike

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

There is no luck in auction because every bid is an opinion. So you get what you value, which means you have to do your homework. 

 

I get what you're saying, but i'll tell my luckiest auction story-  2012- Adrian Peterson is on the board.  Many running backs are gone already. This is after his December ACL tear, and i think he's going way too cheap at the moment.  I dont want him but i want his price higher.  I get in, i get him for (i think) about $4-5 less than I think he's worth.  I grumble a bit.......and he runs for 2K yards.     

 

The thing i struggle with most is, do i bid this certain player now or wait for this other guy later.  I hate when i miss out on a bargain because i was too active early on.   

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

I get what you're saying, but i'll tell my luckiest auction story-  2012- Adrian Peterson is on the board.  Many running backs are gone already. This is after his December ACL tear, and i think he's going way too cheap at the moment.  I dont want him but i want his price higher.  I get in, i get him for (i think) about $4-5 less than I think he's worth.  I grumble a bit.......and he runs for 2K yards.     

 

The thing i struggle with most is, do i bid this certain player now or wait for this other guy later.  I hate when i miss out on a bargain because i was too active early on.   

Best idea is to price out guys you like and jump when you think they are going cheap. I've waited too long and ended up overpaying for scraps

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We're off topic, i know, but I generally bargain hunt.   I rank out all players and get comfortable with a certain amount for each.   If a guy's not DND or faded for me, i'm in the bidding, and i just drop out when he gets to that ceiling for me.   On to the next one.     I review trends of how last year's auction went-  what did the WR10 cost?   What's the top TE vs the 6th TE?   What QB's can i get if i want to spend X?    and so on, and build the strategy from there.      That allows me to spot the bargains.    At times if i see a need, and only one or two guys I like to fill it, then i get aggressive.   Does it work?  Only sometimes.  Tough league.   

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1 hour ago, FreakFries said:

In standard redraft I don’t see how a healthy Fournette lasts until the 2nd. RBs are just too important 

 

What is a healthy Fournette? That hasn't existed in years. 

 

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2 hours ago, FreakFries said:

In standard redraft I don’t see how a healthy Fournette lasts until the 2nd. RBs are just too important 

 

Even in PPR, he's a 1st round value to me in 12 teamers.  The JAGS doubled down on this guy with Norwell for heaven's sake.

 

A relatively cheap Yeldon cuff is a plus too.

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54 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

What is a healthy Fournette? That hasn't existed in years. 

 

 

I know you've 'hated' him in the past but the guy still put up a RB1 season while injured with multiple missed games as a rookie. He's the focal point on an offense that just nabbed the best available OL in FA (so I read). He wasn't a non-factor in the receiving game like most speculated. I just find the opportunity he's going to be getting will be too good to pass up late 1st / early 2nd just on limited injury risk. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

What is a healthy Fournette? That hasn't existed in years. 

 

 

Fair enough.

 

By healthy I mean this: if he makes it to opening week, which is when most of my drafts are, and he hasn't had any injury issues during preseason then that is "healthy" for the purposes of drafting him.

 

I am as scared as anyone of his ankles which I understand were a problem in college too.

 

However, you NEED a rock solid RB1 in standard and right now, these are the only RBs I'd take over him with confidence: T Gurley, Ez E, L Bell.

 

I haven't taken a hard look yet, but I think you could make a case for any of these for RB4: David Johnson, K Hunt, Melvin Gordon of Fournette.  (Not sure I'm ready to trust Kamara to out-perform Fournette or be as consistent.)

 

That's 7 RBs and in standard those will be gone in round 1 or a 12 team league.

 

If you have a case for others, I'm all ears but this is where I am at right now with Fournette. Especially when you consider he finished as the RB #8 only playing 13 games . Every RB that finished ahead of him played 15 games or more and only 3 of those had finished with more than 30 points than Fournette despite playing 2-3 more games. Further, two RBs who finished ahead of him were Ingram and McCoy. Don't see Ingram doing that again and will not be betting on McCoy to do so.

 

LF's ankles do concern me but I just don't see the risk being that much less for some of the players behind him and/or the upside being high enough to burn a first round pick. Would love to hear any thoughts to the contrary 'cause it's not like I win every year ;)

 

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21 hours ago, FreakFries said:

 

Fair enough.

 

By healthy I mean this: if he makes it to opening week, which is when most of my drafts are, and he hasn't had any injury issues during preseason then that is "healthy" for the purposes of drafting him.

 

I am as scared as anyone of his ankles which I understand were a problem in college too.

 

However, you NEED a rock solid RB1 in standard and right now, these are the only RBs I'd take over him with confidence: T Gurley, Ez E, L Bell.

 

I haven't taken a hard look yet, but I think you could make a case for any of these for RB4: David Johnson, K Hunt, Melvin Gordon of Fournette.  (Not sure I'm ready to trust Kamara to out-perform Fournette or be as consistent.)

 

That's 7 RBs and in standard those will be gone in round 1 or a 12 team league.

 

If you have a case for others, I'm all ears but this is where I am at right now with Fournette. Especially when you consider he finished as the RB #8 only playing 13 games . Every RB that finished ahead of him played 15 games or more and only 3 of those had finished with more than 30 points than Fournette despite playing 2-3 more games. Further, two RBs who finished ahead of him were Ingram and McCoy. Don't see Ingram doing that again and will not be betting on McCoy to do so.

 

LF's ankles do concern me but I just don't see the risk being that much less for some of the players behind him and/or the upside being high enough to burn a first round pick. Would love to hear any thoughts to the contrary 'cause it's not like I win every year ;)

 

 

Good analysis.   I can’t believe Kamara is going top 5 in Espn’s latest standard mock.   You’re paying for the best season he will ever have as a timeshare back.

  Would take McCoy Fournette Hunt Mixon Ingram over him easily. (Standard) 

 

fournette is a serious candidate to round out the top 5 rbs IMO.    Health is the one factor that gives me pause.   But man- His talent in that offense is going to be huge. 

 

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

  Would take McCoy Fournette Hunt Mixon Ingram over him easily. (Standard) 

 

I’m not agreeing or disagreeing here, but I will say this decision is far less “easy” for me, especially regarding Mixon and Hunt, possibly Ingram. In standard, picking 7-12 ain’t gonna be so great.

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9 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Good analysis.   I can’t believe Kamara is going top 5 in Espn’s latest standard mock.   You’re paying for the best season he will ever have as a timeshare back.

  Would take McCoy Fournette Hunt Mixon Ingram over him easily. (Standard) 

 

fournette is a serious candidate to round out the top 5 rbs IMO.    Health is the one factor that gives me pause.   But man- His talent in that offense is going to be huge. 

 

 

 

 

TBH I'd probably take kamara end of 1st round. In his limited play he put up great stats. I'd think he gets at least the same amount of plays if not more next year. I have a feeling he will be in the top 3 overall talk next season.

 

i say end of 1st after bell zeke DJ gurley brown maybe Hopkins and fournette

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  • 1 month later...

I'm noticing Fournette posting a lot of cars on his IG story. If I remember correctly, Gurley did the same thing summer of 17', coincidence? ...he's going to beast. 

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56 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

I'm noticing Fournette posting a lot of cars on his IG story. If I remember correctly, Gurley did the same thing summer of 17', coincidence? ...he's going to beast. 

 

They both drive Maybachs—you might be onto something.

 

I wish Doug Martin would buy a Maybach.

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1 hour ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Fournette is in the perfect NFL scenario. He's a top 10 talent at the position, can play all 3 downs, plays for a running offense, and for a team with a premium defense. 

 

Indeed. I think people are sleeping on Fournette a bit and I’ll be looking to get him at acrelative bargain in my redraft leagues, especially my standard scoring one. 

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16 hours ago, fakespike said:

 

Indeed. I think people are sleeping on Fournette a bit and I’ll be looking to get him at acrelative bargain in my redraft leagues, especially my standard scoring one. 

 

I think he’s properly valued- from what I’m seeing.   Going around- but generally before Gordon, Shady, Hunt, Cook 

 

His diva attitude and creaky ankle keeps him below the top tier imo

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16 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

I think he’s properly valued- from what I’m seeing.   Going around- but generally before Gordon, Shady, Hunt, Cook 

 

His diva attitude and creaky ankle keeps him below the top tier imo

is this a joke?

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What is the issue with his ankles?  I looked up ankle surgery and him and didn't see anything.  Does he just roll them more easily?  Muscular imbalance?  There is a lot of articles it seems on it being an issue, but no real explanation as to what is the cause.

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18 minutes ago, Sternes said:

What is the issue with his ankles?  I looked up ankle surgery and him and didn't see anything.  Does he just roll them more easily?  Muscular imbalance?  There is a lot of articles it seems on it being an issue, but no real explanation as to what is the cause.

 

some sort of chronic sprain - the fear is that eventually the sprain will turn into a partial/full tear. I'd assume it stems from imbalance/size. I read earlier that he's getting a little leaner in the hopes that it helps. 

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Struggled with a high ankle sprain in his last year at LSU- missed more than a few games i think.    I think it was two different injuries last year.    I'm further enthralled with him now that I hear he's dropping weight, so as long as he's healthy when i draft my teams, he's a top target.   

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