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Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook


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1 minute ago, Panthers8912 said:

Well, can’t speak to this other situations, but not sure a cmc jstew example says anything at all considering panthers had one of the worst recieving corps in the league. Both runners were at a disadvantage regardless of skill set 

My point is that when JStew is in the game, the defense knows the Panthers are more likely to run than to pass, and may choose to adjust their defense to give extra attention to the run. Likewise, when CMC is in the game, the defense knows the Panthers are more likely to pass than to run, and may choose to adjust their defense to give less attention to the run and more attention to the pass. Yet, as the numbers show, there is hardly a material difference between the advantages (-0.02 difference). This suggests that defenses played the same looks regardless of who was in the backfield, even though they know JStew back there is tipping a run and CMC back there is tipping a pass. This, in turn, hints at the fact that defenses don't change their looks based on game situations nearly as much as we think they do.

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3 hours ago, OBJfor6 said:

I think it's logical to say that LF's -1.05 blocking advantage means that he received extra defensive attention on ~5% of his runs (meaning that he saw 1 extra defender above the blockers + RB expectation on 5% of his runs) , or that Todd Gurley faced less defensive attention than expected on ~17% of his runs (-0.83 blocking advantage).

 

Furthermore, considering the fact that the difference between the best blocking advantage and the worst blocking advantage in the league last year was 33% (0.76 vs. 1.09), I think our narratives greatly overexaggerate the actual defensive attention different players are getting. We pretty much automatically assume that a guy like McKinnon (-0.76 advantage), who is more of a pass-catching back and is on a great pass-oriented team, would always see at least 1 less defender (relative to the number of blockers he has) than a guy like Jonathan Stewart (-1.09 advantage), a one-dimensional runner. But we don't - instead of this seemingly 100% chance, it only happened ~33% of the time last year.

 

You didn't post a link with your previous data, so I can't say this with any confidence, but my instinct says turning them into percentages like you have, is a blatant misrepresentation of what those figures are indicating.  If you have the link, I'd like to read the article.

 

However, even if we use your percentages... 33% is massive in my opinion.  I can't fathom how you could imply otherwise.  That means for a guy who runs the ball 300 times, for 100 of his rushes, he faced 1 less defender at the LOS.  You don't really think that's negligible do you? (LF ran the ball 268 times last year, meaning 33% would be 88 rushes where he had an extra guy against him at the LOS than McKinnon.)

 

If LF ran the ball 100 times against +1 defender and then ran the ball 100 times against equal defenders... you can't honestly tell me you think his results wouldn't be drastically different.  At least I hope not...

 

2 hours ago, OBJfor6 said:

My point is that when JStew is in the game, the defense knows the Panthers are more likely to run than to pass, and may choose to adjust their defense to give extra attention to the run. Likewise, when CMC is in the game, the defense knows the Panthers are more likely to pass than to run, and may choose to adjust their defense to give less attention to the run and more attention to the pass. Yet, as the numbers show, there is hardly a material difference between the advantages (-0.02 difference). This suggests that defenses played the same looks regardless of who was in the backfield, even though they know JStew back there is tipping a run and CMC back there is tipping a pass. This, in turn, hints at the fact that defenses don't change their looks based on game situations nearly as much as we think they do.

 

If you picked any other team than CAR I might have bought this.  The reason there is no significant variance between J.Stew and CMC, is because they're both irrelevant to how the defenses play against CAR, more specifically, how they play against Cam Newton.  Cam was the leading rusher on the Panthers with 754 rushing yards last season.  More than TJ Yeldon has ever rushed for in his career. (Cheap shot, sorry couldn't resist).

 

Defenses aren't altering how they cover Cam based on which RB is next to him because the RB isn't the biggest threat in the backfield.

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

You didn't post a link with your previous data, so I can't say this with any confidence, but my instinct says turning them into percentages like you have, is a blatant misrepresentation of what those figures are indicating.  If you have the link, I'd like to read the article.

 

However, even if we use your percentages... 33% is massive in my opinion.  I can't fathom how you could imply otherwise.  That means for a guy who runs the ball 300 times, for 100 of his rushes, he faced 1 less defender at the LOS.  You don't really think that's negligible do you? (LF ran the ball 268 times last year, meaning 33% would be 88 rushes where he had an extra guy against him at the LOS than McKinnon.)

 

If LF ran the ball 100 times against +1 defender and then ran the ball 100 times against equal defenders... you can't honestly tell me you think his results wouldn't be drastically different.  At least I hope not...

 

 

If you picked any other team than CAR I might have bought this.  The reason there is no significant variance between J.Stew and CMC, is because they're both irrelevant to how the defenses play against CAR, more specifically, how they play against Cam Newton.  Cam was the leading rusher on the Panthers with 754 rushing yards last season.  More than TJ Yeldon has ever rushed for in his career. (Cheap shot, sorry couldn't resist).

 

Defenses aren't altering how they cover Cam based on which RB is next to him because the RB isn't the biggest threat in the backfield.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-quantifying-a-running-backs-blocking-advantage

 

The article does not give the raw data broken down by runner behind the chart, but I think their method is sound, so I have no reason to doubt the end result. 

 

To reiterate, -1.05 means LF faced, on average, 1.05 defenders over the number of blockers he had per play. This means he faced 281.4 (1.05*268) defenders over the number of blockers he had on these carries. If we define the baseline expectation as -1, since this is the look defenses almost always play (74% of the time), LF's baseline expectation would be 268 defenders. 281.4-268 is 13.4. 13.4/268 is 5%. I then loosely defined this 5% as the percentage of plays LF is at a greater disadvantage than the expectation, but like I said, this is not entirely accurate - it could be that he was at a -2 advantage 7% of the time, and a 0 advantage 2% of the time (with all others being -1 advantage), meaning his net disadvantage was 5%. It would probably be a little more accurate to call 5% a net disadvantage, or just call it 5% extra defenders.

 

By saying -.76 vs. -1.09 is a 33% difference, I am saying McKinnon had a net advantage on 24% of his runs, JStew had a net disadvantage on 9% of his runs, so McKinnon had a 33% net advantage (24% + 9%) over JStew. Now, like I said, this is a rough estimate - you can't precisely compare the percentages for two players that had a different amount of carries. What I am basically assuming here is that these proportions are constant - if McKinnon had the same number of carries as JStew, he would still have a -.76 advantage, and then that 33% number would be precise.

 

I was not implying that 33% isn't significant - if I was, I wouldn't have said, "we should use this data to better understand RB situations around the league, and roughly compare RB situations to each other." I would have said, "this shows that defensive attention doesn't really matter, so we should ignore these narratives altogether."

My point was that a 33% difference between the best advantage (McKinnon, Jamaal Williams) and the worst advantage (JStew) is not nearly the 100% difference we would expect based on conventional thinking. By saying Yeldon was always facing light fronts, and LF was always facing stacked fronts, you were basically saying Yeldon ALWAYS had a net advantage over LF, meaning his net advantage would be at least 100%, if not more.

 

What I am implying is that differences between RBs close to each other on the chart are negligible. Like I said a while ago, the difference between LF and 5 of his 10 peers in the top 10 last year is within .04. A 4% difference is less than one extra defender above the -1 expectation per game (Since it's once out of every 25 carries, and LF averaged less than 25 carries/game). Less than one extra defender per game does not have a meaningful impact - if it turns what would normally be a 4.11-yard gain into a 3.73-yard gain, or a 4.93-yard gain into a 4.11-yard gain (using the YPC numbers on the distribution chart), that's less than .38 to .82 yards per game LF is losing compared to Mark Ingram (-1.01, the peer with a 4% difference from LF). Very insignificant.

 

Your point on CMC and JStew, because of Cam, is fair. I was originally going to also mention Dion Lewis, but then didn't think I needed to. You would expect any RB on the Pats, especially one like Lewis who can actually catch the ball too, to have a blocking advantage better than most (they have the greatest QB of all time), but even he was near the bottom of the league, and only .01 better than LF.

 

 

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On 6/23/2018 at 1:45 AM, OBJfor6 said:

My point is that when JStew is in the game, the defense knows the Panthers are more likely to run than to pass, and may choose to adjust their defense to give extra attention to the run. Likewise, when CMC is in the game, the defense knows the Panthers are more likely to pass than to run, and may choose to adjust their defense to give less attention to the run and more attention to the pass. Yet, as the numbers show, there is hardly a material difference between the advantages (-0.02 difference). This suggests that defenses played the same looks regardless of who was in the backfield, even though they know JStew back there is tipping a run and CMC back there is tipping a pass. This, in turn, hints at the fact that defenses don't change their looks based on game situations nearly as much as we think they do.

 

Or it implies teams adjusted to play the run when JStew was in, and it worked.  When McCaffrey was in teams backed off but McCaffrey sucked so bad as a runner it didn’t matter. 

 

There is a long history of change of pace backs having gaudy ypc numbers until they’re moved into an early down role where they struggle.  

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On 6/23/2018 at 1:45 AM, OBJfor6 said:

My point is that when JStew is in the game, the defense knows the Panthers are more likely to run than to pass, and may choose to adjust their defense to give extra attention to the run. Likewise, when CMC is in the game, the defense knows the Panthers are more likely to pass than to run, and may choose to adjust their defense to give less attention to the run and more attention to the pass. Yet, as the numbers show, there is hardly a material difference between the advantages (-0.02 difference). This suggests that defenses played the same looks regardless of who was in the backfield, even though they know JStew back there is tipping a run and CMC back there is tipping a pass. This, in turn, hints at the fact that defenses don't change their looks based on game situations nearly as much as we think they do.

 

CMC  was on the field for 70% of the snaps and jstew for 40% . Carolina passed  52%  of their plays.  So your premise is quite flawed because what you are inferring  is they were tipping the pass on 70% of their plays or the run on 40%?

 What you are missing is defenses were adjusting to stop cam newton not cmc or jstew. Cam is the running game and is deadly with the read option. 

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It felt like everything that could have gone right for Jacksonville and Fournette last season went right .... aside from the injuries and suspended game. 

 

I would not necessarily avoid him at the end of the 1st round, but why are we taking him over a guy that has averaged 1450 yards and 12 TD's over his last two seasons while playing in what is expected to be one of the more explosive offenses in the league.  

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Assuming you're talking about Melvin Gordon?     I have no beef with Gordon, but i do prefer Fournette to him.    I like JAX's o line better, and I expect Fournette to get more TD chances.   Jax's offensive efficiency improved greatly at the end of the season, i think 2018 continues on that path- 12-15 TD's for Fournette.    Gordon's the better receiver, and in the better overall offense, of course.   I fear Ekeler's vulturing more than i fear Yeldon or Grant.    

 

All of those are splitting hairs.   If Fournette goes one pick before i draft, and I get Gordon instead.......that's fine.   

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Assuming you're talking about Melvin Gordon?     I have no beef with Gordon, but i do prefer Fournette to him.    I like JAX's o line better, and I expect Fournette to get more TD chances.   Jax's offensive efficiency improved greatly at the end of the season, i think 2018 continues on that path- 12-15 TD's for Fournette.    Gordon's the better receiver, and in the better overall offense, of course.   I fear Ekeler's vulturing more than i fear Yeldon or Grant.    

 

All of those are splitting hairs.   If Fournette goes one pick before i draft, and I get Gordon instead.......that's fine.   

 

I agree in preferring Fournette over MGordon.

 

But for the record, I don't see MGordon as being a "better receiver," or even the Chargers having the "better overall offense." The Jaguars offense was markedly improved last year, and while this improvement was helped by the defense it was also due to solid offensive play.

 

Regarding receiving, MGordon gets more opportunity but I prefer Fournette's hands over MGordon's:

     Fournette (13 games) 36 receptions / 48 targets (75%) / 2 drops / 302 yards

     MGordon (16 games) 58 receptions / 83 targets (70%) / 5 drops / 476 yards

If Bortles / JAX hadn't be spreading the ball around to the backfield, Fournette would've excelled (Yeldon’s 30 receptions / 41 targets, Corey Grants 3/4, and Ivory’s 21/28). Austin Ekeler's 27/35 (77%, 1 drop) was a minor dent. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ekeler's use increase (especially if MGordon reaches 5 drops again), and I'd expect Fournette will see more targets with Ivory gone.

 

Fournette's big, but he has hands, and while neither Fournette nor MGordon is the receiving back we see in DJ or Bell, he's at least equal to MGordon, and for comparison's sake, both are a step above Howard and Collins.

 

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6 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

But for the record, I don't see MGordon as being a "better receiver," or even the Chargers having the "better overall offense." The Jaguars offense was markedly improved last year, and while this improvement was helped by the defense it was also due to solid offensive play.

People don't realize the Jaguars offense was top 6 in points per game AND yards per game because "Bortles sucks".

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39 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

I agree in preferring Fournette over MGordon.

 

But for the record, I don't see MGordon as being a "better receiver," or even the Chargers having the "better overall offense." The Jaguars offense was markedly improved last year, and while this improvement was helped by the defense it was also due to solid offensive play.

 

Thumbs up, thanks for the insight.   I hadn't looked that closely at their production.  I still think Gordon will get more receiving stats, but its good to see Fournette was efficient there.  If I draft him, i'm not expecting a ton of receiving volume, but seeing him having a talent for it helps my comfort level,.  

 

 

39 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:
34 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

People don't realize the Jaguars offense was top 6 in points per game AND yards per game because "Bortles sucks".

 

 

I dug further into this and was surprised that the Jags were a top team in number of offensive plays.    I thought they were a more slow, methodical offense. It was no surprise to see that they led the league in rush yards and attempts, but its noteworthy that they were top 10 in yards per carry.

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3 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Thumbs up, thanks for the insight.   I hadn't looked that closely at their production.  I still think Gordon will get more receiving stats, but its good to see Fournette was efficient there.  If I draft him, i'm not expecting a ton of receiving volume, but seeing him having a talent for it helps my comfort level,.  

 

 

 

I dug further into this and was surprised that the Jags were a top team in number of offensive plays.    I thought they were a more slow, methodical offense. It was no surprise to see that they led the league in rush yards and attempts, but its noteworthy that they were top 10 in yards per carry.

 

I think the inefficiency was so blatant in 2016 the perception of inefficiency bled into 2017 and hung out there. While I'm not sold on Bortles, I am looking forward to seeing what the Jags bring to the table this year.

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They were really clicking at the end of the year.  They faceplanted a bit in the wild card game, but they really brought it against Pittsburgh, and NE (for 3 quarters at least).   Their turnover is nothing to fear on offense- if anything, Chark, Moncrief, and ASJ make their weapons a little better.   Defensively, you can hang your hat on that unit.  Their top 9 guys in terms of total snaps are all back.   They're a team that knows what they do well and their strengths should only get more polished as they get more experienced as a unit.

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I am super high on Fournette. I don't think nagging injuries will go away due to his running style, but every week he plays he has one of the better shots at 100+ yards and a td. That's what I want from an rb1. He showed surprisingly good hands, and could easily get 40+ catches. Tack that on to around 300 carries, clear goal line back, a team that'll be leading a ton of games, and an improved o-line, and you've got yourself a fantasy stud. I'll probably end up higher on him than most people, but he'll be in the discussion for me at rb5 and pick 7 overall. 

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On 6/26/2018 at 1:09 PM, BrianM said:

They were really clicking at the end of the year.  They faceplanted a bit in the wild card game, but they really brought it against Pittsburgh, and NE (for 3 quarters at least).   Their turnover is nothing to fear on offense- if anything, Chark, Moncrief, and ASJ make their weapons a little better.   Defensively, you can hang your hat on that unit.  Their top 9 guys in terms of total snaps are all back.   They're a team that knows what they do well and their strengths should only get more polished as they get more experienced as a unit.

 

Tom Coughlin is a slam dunk HoF guy.  amazing job he's done down there, this blueprint reads "SUPER BOWL OR BUST"

 

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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

Tom Coughlin is a slam dunk HoF guy.  amazing job he's done down there, this blueprint reads "SUPER BOWL OR BUST"

 

He's been there one year lol.  Coughlin did not build this team.  He added Calais Campbell, AJ Bouye, and drafted Fournette.

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6 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

He also started the franchise, left and won 2 SB, returned and helped the Jags go from annual joke to contender 

 

YEAH BUT WHY LET FACTS GET IN THE WAY OF A GOOD "LOL"

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

He also started the franchise, left and won 2 SB, returned and helped the Jags go from annual joke to contender 

Yeah that's what he was talking about 

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5 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

He also started the franchise, left and won 2 SB, returned and helped the Jags go from annual joke to contender 

The point is the Jags were going to be good last year with or without Coughlin.  He just had amazing timing to make himself look good.

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