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Donte Moncrief 2018 Outlook


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1 hour ago, pikerbkb said:

The weird thing is if the Jaguars offered Moncrief $9.6 million dollars guaranteed then you know some other team, at least one had to have offered him something that was close to that. You don't offer a player who has struggled 9.6 million on a prove-it deal in a vacuum.

The colts were flush with cap space, so they probably offered Moncrief something decent.  That amount of money has to be partially to f--- with the Colts, to make them have to start Rogers or a rookie WR/older WR retread against them twice a year. Similar to how BB always steals talent in the division, but less clever and more just tossing money around. 

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Moncrief is the girl in your class who's not so attractive, but super friendly and always there when you need her.

he is on the jaguars, Bortles is his QB. Bortles learned last season how to spread the ball around. i wouldnt trust any wr ona run 1st team that spreads the ball around and a QB who can show up or dis

Brissett wasn't the worst QB in the NFL last year.  In fact, given his circumstances I thought he did decent, and might turn out to be league average in the long run.

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3 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Oh c'mon.  Were you one of the people pointing out his TD-per game ratio to discredit TY's league leading yards that year?  :lol:

No. I was pointing out his targets to TD's ratio because I think it illustrates his ability as a playmaker. 

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Taking all of the Andrew Luck and coach/GM drama issues out of the equation, Moncrief hasn't been the same since he took that vicious hit to the back of his shoulder that knocked him out a few games a couple years ago. He's played tentative and unconfident ever since.

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  • 4 weeks later...
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Looking for this guy on the 12 team ADP chart, and he's nowhere to be seen. Undrafted. You have Lee in the 12th, Westbrook in the 16th.

 

He has to be the most underrated player in fantasy this year. Underrated isn't even the word, he is unrated. Its almost like he has cancer or something. Reminds me a lot of Davante Adams in 2016, Nelson Agholor in 2017 - completely off the radar. Fantasy owners are very unforgiving.

 

Its interesting when you consider:

1. He's the highest paid WR on the team. You don't give someone $10 million guaranteed to sit him on the bench.

2. He's the most physically gifted WR on that roster - much like Davante, he has ideal size and speed. 6'2, 220 lbs, runs a 4.40

3. He should be a starter on day 1, and we've seen Bortles make his receivers fantasy-relevant.

 

His career hasn't amounted to anything, but you could argue he wasn't in a great spot either. The injuries certainly didn't help. But is he as bad a player as his stats would suggest? I don't think so.

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Fun Fact: If Calvin Ridley has 140 catches for 1700 yards and 15 TDs this season, he's still go into next season with less age adjusted production than Moncrief brings into this season (Moncrief is only a year older than Ridley)

In other words, Moncrief has two very important things going for him - he's athletic and he's still very young.

Obviously you don't have to spend a decent pick to get him this year, but we shouldn't dismiss him either even though he's looked pretty mediocre.
But then again, reading through the comments, I'm inclined to say the intelligencia here is correct. Here's a sampling of the Moncrief non-love:

 

"Fell for him last year, not doing that again"
"He was woeful last year"
"I would rather have a player like Enumwa as my WR4/5 than this guy"
"Fool’s gold"
"This guy can cure cancer, and I still don’t want anything to do with him. Wasted a pick from all the hype last year"


Yep, with so many negative comments from posters here, they must be right.
Except these weren't comments about Moncrief, these were comments on the Davante Adams 2016 outlook page.
I'm buying late, because the price (next to nothing) is right.

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29 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

Fun Fact: If Calvin Ridley has 140 catches for 1700 yards and 15 TDs this season, he's still go into next season with less age adjusted production than Moncrief brings into this season (Moncrief is only a year older than Ridley)

In other words, Moncrief has two very important things going for him - he's athletic and he's still very young.

Obviously you don't have to spend a decent pick to get him this year, but we shouldn't dismiss him either even though he's looked pretty mediocre.
But then again, reading through the comments, I'm inclined to say the intelligencia here is correct. Here's a sampling of the Moncrief non-love:

 

"Fell for him last year, not doing that again"
"He was woeful last year"
"I would rather have a player like Enumwa as my WR4/5 than this guy"
"Fool’s gold"
"This guy can cure cancer, and I still don’t want anything to do with him. Wasted a pick from all the hype last year"


Yep, with so many negative comments from posters here, they must be right.
Except these weren't comments about Moncrief, these were comments on the Davante Adams 2016 outlook page.
I'm buying late, because the price (next to nothing) is right.

 

 

1. Bortles vs Rodgers...

 

2. As bad as Adams was in 2015, Moncrief has done nothing for more than a season.  The next time he passes 70 yards in a game will be the first since the 2015 season. 

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Cole, Westbrook and Lee competing with Moncrief for targets, a run-first offense, and Bortles as your trigger man.  What is Moncrief's ceiling under those circumstances?  We know his floor is potentially quite low.  Not seeing it.

 

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3 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Cole, Westbrook and Lee competing with Moncrief for targets, a run-first offense, and Bortles as your trigger man.  What is Moncrief's ceiling under those circumstances?  We know his floor is potentially quite low.  Not seeing it.

 

 

I thought with the way you were starting you were going to be discussing just the floor. 

 

I think the floor is absolutely terrible, and I don't think this is the flier I will personally invest in, don't get me wrong. BUT, I do think there is some ceiling here, particularly if we get fully healthy Moncrief. Bortles in particular makes it a hard sell, but Moncrief should be a likely GL target on this offense, so something like 800/8 or even 800/10 wouldn't be the *most* shocking thing to me. 

 

Again, all that said, I'm probably not going to pay anything substantial. For instance I'm in a 12-Team PPR Auction that's fairly deep (QB + QB/Flex, 2 More Flex, 3 WR, 2 RB 1 TE), and in a league like that you need a ton of relevant players to consistently field a team, so I could see myself taking a Jags WR in a format like that, but I'm most likely getting the cheapest one and it's most likely an end-draft maneuver regardless of format. 

 

4 hours ago, andypro77 said:

Fun Fact: If Calvin Ridley has 140 catches for 1700 yards and 15 TDs this season, he's still go into next season with less age adjusted production than Moncrief brings into this season (Moncrief is only a year older than Ridley)

In other words, Moncrief has two very important things going for him - he's athletic and he's still very young.

Obviously you don't have to spend a decent pick to get him this year, but we shouldn't dismiss him either even though he's looked pretty mediocre.
But then again, reading through the comments, I'm inclined to say the intelligencia here is correct. Here's a sampling of the Moncrief non-love:

 

"Fell for him last year, not doing that again"
"He was woeful last year"
"I would rather have a player like Enumwa as my WR4/5 than this guy"
"Fool’s gold"
"This guy can cure cancer, and I still don’t want anything to do with him. Wasted a pick from all the hype last year"


Yep, with so many negative comments from posters here, they must be right.
Except these weren't comments about Moncrief, these were comments on the Davante Adams 2016 outlook page.
I'm buying late, because the price (next to nothing) is right.

 

 

Two huge issues with the comparison (and I do truly agree with teh bolded):

 

1.) Injuries. 

 

2.) Aaron Rodgers.

 

Not saying he's undeniably an "injury-prone" player, but the fact of the matter is that staying healthy for 16 games is a skill and Moncrief has not been good at that. Now his injuries have been fairly flukey, but still in 2 years:

2016 -- missed 5 Games with a Shoulder Fracture, pulled hammy before Week 12 and missed Week 14, injured unspecified shoulder week 16 and missed week 17. 

missed 7 games

2017 -- missed 1st 2 preseason games with AC shoulder sprain, missed last four games regular season. 

 

So he's missed 11 of his last 32 regular season games. Again, not the worst injuries. But it's certainly not a positive that he hasn't been healthy for more than 12 games in a season the last two years, and it's certainly worth mentioning.

 

And I mean come ON... again, I agree with the general take and the conclusion that at the price he's worth buying, but Adams was someone I (wrongly, or perhaps rightly at the time) despised from a talent perspective, but I was still willing to buy him at the right price because f--- the Packers but those cheese-head Wide Receivers have a ton of opportunity to be money. And we're not just talking about going from Rodgers to LUCK, we're talking about Rodgers to BORTLES. It's like going from QB1 to QB25 in real value. + other comments about being a run-first offense and having other targets. 

 

So again, generally agree with the bolded statement. I think Crief can be worth it. But I don't think an Adams comparison or a belief in that kind of upside is apt. 

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I think he's a lot closer to being this year's Markus Wheaton than he is being a Davante Adams breakout star.   

 

I'm sure he'll fall somewhere in between those vast goalposts, but in this offense, there's only so much ceiling.   His red zone prowess is less attractive to me with a team that threw 21 pass TD's last year.  

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All of these Moncrief sentiments are valid. I think where I get into different valuations is that I play in a lot of best-ball leagues. If he misses a few games or goes 1 catch for 11 yards, it doesn't matter to me because he's my WR8.
I'm in the middle of my 14 team, 7-keeper dynasty league. we're in round 5, and I'm up soon. I'm probably going to go Enunwa over him this round, but I'd probably take him next.
Right now I have Dez, Amari, Alshon, Corey Davis, DJ Moore, Hunter Henry, and Jordan Reed (we don't use a TE spot, WR/TE are all the same). We start 3 WR/TE and 2 flex, so having Moncrief as my WR8/9 is going to cost me very little - if I did pick him next round, it would be as if I used a mid-14th round pick on him in a traditional 12-team league. That's a really good value for an athletic 24 year old whom his team paid nearly 10 million dollars to start, AFTER allowing their best WR to walk away.

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5 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

So you're suggesting his upside is 21 TD's :P

 

18.   Koyack gets 2 just to keep teams honest in goal line play action , and Westbrook gets one on a blown coverage

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Donte Moncrief 2018 Outlook
  • 2 weeks later...
42 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

What are his chances of emerging as the number one receiver with the Lee injury?

 

To me, not all tht different from dede's and Cole's chances .I like taking the cheapest in most situations. 

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I dont argue against taking a Jags WR on the cheap as your WR 6 or so, but I think spending significant auction cash or picks on any is likely to be a mistake.   There's a pretty strong chance that nobody becomes a weekly starter in this offense.   They've got enough bodies to spread it around, and aren't likely to waver from the defense and run game formula.   Even if someone breaks out, there's not really anything strong that says its Cole to own, or Westbrook, or hell, even Chark.   

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

I dont argue against taking a Jags WR on the cheap as your WR 6 or so, but I think spending significant auction cash or picks on any is likely to be a mistake.   There's a pretty strong chance that nobody becomes a weekly starter in this offense.   They've got enough bodies to spread it around, and aren't likely to waver from the defense and run game formula.   Even if someone breaks out, there's not really anything strong that says its Cole to own, or Westbrook, or hell, even Chark.   

I agree with your first point. I'm not reaching for anyone. I have I believe all three in a league at this point, and I think at each point they were teh cheapest in the draft. Cole is probably my personal favorite, but he was a 9th-10th in my draft last night. I'd take Westbrook four rounds later instead.

 

But I disagree that there's a pretty strong chance that nobody becomes a weekly starter. Marqise Lee only caught a pass in 12 games last season and he had 56 Rec, 702 Yards, and 3 TDs. That's like 75 Rec, 936 Yards, and 4 TD. That's like a WR2/3 in Standard, WR2 in PPR. I think Westbrook, Cole, or Moncrief likely end up a WR30-36 or better. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Just now, Dez Bryants Mama said:

https://blackandteal.com/2018/09/05/jaguars-donte-moncrief-moves-no-1-wide-receiver-role/

 

"The Jacksonville Jaguars released its depth chart ahead of the game against the New York Giants. Donte Moncrief, the free agent wide receiver from Indianapolis, has moved into the spot held by Marqise Lee."

 

Good news for Cole owners.  Bad news for Moncrief owners.  Hopefully, for Moncrief owners, defenses negate their depth chart and place their talent on Cole and Westbrook.  I'd rather force Moncrief to beat me than Cole or Westbrook.

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11 minutes ago, herschel said:

15 targets and not a peep?

I saw that too but when I realized Bortles threw it 61 times it got became a lot less interesting especially since he didn't do much with those 15 targets even against a Chiefs D that hasn't been very good. Jags D should be able to keep them in most games where they aren't facing one of the hottest offense in the league so I doubt Bortles will be throwing this much very often. If he were on waivers he might be a speculative add since he did have a big game last week too (and took over the team lead for targets) but he is owned in all my leagues. Seems like Moncrief, Cole and Westbrook are going to switch off who is the top WR each week so makes it a hard situation to fall in love with. 

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