Julio Jones 2018 Outlook

[smeeze 6,096]

[Pooskay 807]

last year before 30.....go all in.

[joshua18 7,029]

2 hours ago, smeeze said:

 

Guaranteed you won't see him on any "most TD" lists...

[Blu Exile 479]

Julio is almost universally hated this year, especially by most of the casual FF players. All his metrics and stats still point to him being the same elite WR he's always been. Vegas has him as a big favorite to go over 1400 yards and 6 TD's this year if you're into that sort of thing. It's crazy seeing this guy slip to the 2nd round in PPR leagues, a lot of recency bias with Julio.

[PolarBear 247]

I have him rated #2.  No reason why he shouldn't be.  Healthy heading into camp at 29 years old.  Atlanta's offense looks good.  Matty Ice is dependable. 

 

I think he is a lock for 90+ receptions, 1400+ yards. The TD's have to come...right? 

[oliminator123 3,448]

4 minutes ago, Blu Exile said:

Julio is almost universally hated this year, especially by most of the casual FF players. All his metrics and stats still point to him being the same elite WR he's always been. Vegas has him as a big favorite to go over 1400 yards and 6 TD's this year if you're into that sort of thing. It's crazy seeing this guy slip to the 2nd round in PPR leagues, a lot of recency bias with Julio.

I would love to see "this is the year his TD's go up!" but I have been saying that every year.

 

If the price is right, I don't know how you can pass him up. 

[joshua18 7,029]

2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

I would love to see "this is the year his TD's go up!" but I have been saying that every year.

 

If the price is right, I don't know how you can pass him up. 

 

Just treat him like Andre Johnson. Great WR whose good TD years will be 6-7 instead of 12-14.

 

[herschel 1,986]

similar thing happened with nuk last year and ask his owners how that worked out.  i agree he should be wr2 or wr3 off the board.

[TommyKramer 829]

1 minute ago, herschel said:

similar thing happened with nuk last year and ask his owners how that worked out.  i agree he should be wr2 or wr3 off the board.

I can't see taking Julio over Antonio, Odell or Hopkins.  TD's really boost those point totals and Julio has shown consistently that is his weak spot.  95 catches and 1400 yards are great but with only a handful of TD's to go along with them, you have to knock him down behind the guys who will post close to the same catches and yards but make a habit of scoring more TD's. Got no problem putting him at 4 though, although that is debatable.  

[Experienced Rookie 662]

6 minutes ago, herschel said:

similar thing happened with nuk last year and ask his owners how that worked out.  i agree he should be wr2 or wr3 off the board.

Julio isn't similar to Hopkins in anyway situationally. Hopkins had a bad 2016 due to the black hole of QBs he was playing with. Osweiller was particularly horrendous. 

 

Drafters pushed Hopkins all the way to the end of the 3rd in 2017. 

 

Julio is playing with the same QB and in the same system as 2017. His ADP still keeps him near the top of the draft boards. 

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

I can not handle rostering Julio.  Guy has the most inconsistent week-to-week numbers yet it all averages out to being Top 10 each year.  For the sake of my fantasy team this year, I am going to pass on him because I like ballers that bring the points on a weekly basis.

[CooL 3,248]

27 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

I can not handle rostering Julio.  Guy has the most inconsistent week-to-week numbers yet it all averages out to being Top 10 each year.  For the sake of my fantasy team this year, I am going to pass on him because I like ballers that bring the points on a weekly basis.

I think that's the perception.  Last year, his numbers are skewed by a monster 12/253/2 game and a very good 9/99/1 game.

He had 5 games with under 5 receptions: 4/66, 3/30, 3/74, 2/24, and 3/54.  In full point PPR, 2 of those games still get you 10 points.  But I guess from a first round pick, more is expected.  I think I would rather have one of the RBs at the back end of the 1st or top of the 2nd where he is being drafted. 

[Kyle87 843]

14 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

I can not handle rostering Julio.  Guy has the most inconsistent week-to-week numbers yet it all averages out to being Top 10 each year.  For the sake of my fantasy team this year, I am going to pass on him because I like ballers that bring the points on a weekly basis.

Post above me said it too but yeah he isn't that inconsistent.  Brown and Nuk are the only ones I really trust to not have some down weeks.

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

In all seriousness, I don't like him as a pick until about the fourth or fifth round.  

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

1 hour ago, dudewithabadcat said:

In all seriousness, I don't like him as a pick until about the fourth or fifth round.  

point is, he is not going to be on my squad

[JoeJoe88 1,156]

1 hour ago, dudewithabadcat said:

In all seriousness, I don't like him as a pick until about the fourth or fifth round.  

What is good value to you on Gurley?  End of the third?

[lolcopter 7,860]

8 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

What is good value to you on Gurley?  End of the third?

 

Gurley actually scores touchdowns

[JoeJoe88 1,156]

2 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

Gurley actually scores touchdowns

This is overblown.  He's averaged nearly 1600 yards a season over the four years, and right at 6 touchdowns a year.  Touchdowns are fluky.  Yes, he scores less than he should, but I can overlook a low touchdown rate when he's a virtual lock for 1500+ yards.

[lolcopter 7,860]

2 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

This is overblown.  He's averaged nearly 1600 yards a season over the four years, and right at 6 touchdowns a year.  Touchdowns are fluky.  Yes, he scores less than he should, but I can overlook a low touchdown rate when he's a virtual lock for 1500+ yards.

 

in PPR maybe, but in standard scoring touchdowns are the bread and butter

[TPowell 70]

Will gladly go Julio-ODB from picking late in the first round. Guys like Fournette, Gordon, CMC, Hunt, and Cook all have a lot of questions marks with workload (CMC), being ineffective (Gordon and Fournette), and young guys like Hunt and Cook who are assumed to be a workhorse back

[Boudewijn 4,456]

10 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Touchdowns are fluky. 

Not if your team targets you consistently inside the 10. Then they become a matter of due process.

[JoeJoe88 1,156]

11 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

in PPR maybe, but in standard scoring touchdowns are the bread and butter

People still play in Standard leagues?

 

Julio was WR6 in Standard leagues last year, by the way.  With his lowest TD total of his career save for when he only played 5 games in 2013.  

[lolcopter 7,860]

Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

People still play in Standard leagues?

 

Julio was WR6 in Standard leagues last year, by the way.  With his lowest TD total of his career save for when he only played 5 games in 2013.  

 

why of course. not everyone thinks you should get bonus point for doing your job

 

WR6 is probably right about where he should be drafted in standard

[Kyle87 843]

1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

 

in PPR maybe, but in standard scoring touchdowns are the bread and butter

1600 yards is still 1600 yards regardless of ppr rules.

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

What is good value to you on Gurley?  End of the third?

 

You obviously aren't reading the thread thoroughly enough broseph.  Gurley is a consistent week-to-week double digit dynamo, ya dork.  You are attempting to compare apples to oranges - Gurly is the green apple in my eye too.  Oranges are aight too, however, an apple is the ole reliable.  Just give it a quick rinse, get in your car, and you are getting your fiber on the road.  Oranges have to be peeled and transported -juice gets everywhere...not worth the hassle.  Green apples and Gurley - worth it all the time.