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Julio Jones 2018 Outlook


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2 hours ago, TPowell said:

Will gladly go Julio-ODB from picking late in the first round. Guys like Fournette, Gordon, CMC, Hunt, and Cook all have a lot of questions marks with workload (CMC), being ineffective (Gordon and Fournette), and young guys like Hunt and Cook who are assumed to be a workhorse back

Have fun with Alex Collins and Derrick Henry as your starting RB's. 

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Yeah you gotta grab a RB in the first 2 rounds if not 2 RBs 

ODB-Hopkins-Julio all can be had at the end of the first in a snake, but then your backs end up mid-tier RB2's. 

You can also have two of Hunt-Cook-Fournette-Gordon paired with two of Diggs-Hilton-Thielen who all could potentially be WR1's.

Even if ODB and Hopkins look good on paper, you're seriously hamstringing your team. 

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12 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

You obviously aren't reading the thread thoroughly enough broseph

Oh, I'm reading it baby.  I actually had to reread your comment about Julio Jones in the 5th about four times to make sure my eyes weren't deceiving me!  It's likely the most asinine comment I've read on these forums.  And believe me Fruit Man, that's saying a whole lot.

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12 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Oh, I'm reading it baby.  I actually had to reread your comment about Julio Jones in the 5th about four times to make sure my eyes weren't deceiving me!  It's likely the most asinine comment I've read on these forums.  And believe me Fruit Man, that's saying a whole lot.

 

JoeJoe my BroBro - don't you get my point?  My point is that I don't care enough about Julio to draft him until the fifth round.  Considering opportunity cost,  maintaining a competitive weekly average, and all sorts of Falcon's-cannot-get-out-of-their-own-way vibes - ya, it makes total sense to some of us - at least it does to me, and that is all that really matters JoJo my BroBro, right?

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5 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

JoeJoe my BroBro - don't you get my point?  My point is that I don't care enough about Julio to draft him until the fifth round.  Considering opportunity cost,  maintaining a competitive weekly average, and all sorts of Falcon's-cannot-get-out-of-their-own-way vibes - ya, it makes total sense to some of us - at least it does to me, and that is all that really matters JoJo my BroBro, right?

Julio did only get 24 yards in week 12 of the 17' season. Screw him, I wouldn't touch him until the 10th in a 14 teamer

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Coming from a Falcons fan who has always let my homerism take over on draft day, I think this is the year I will fade. Yes he will put up WR1 numbers end of the season but fantasy is played week to week, any one who has ever owned him knows the frustration. Only glimmer of hope is Ridley taking some attention off Julio but I still don't see us forcing him the ball the way we want our fantasy WR studs to get fed.

 

Now watch me fold like a cheap suit on a draft day

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I don't doubt that Julio will have one or two monster weeks where he singlehandedly wins you your matchup.  But he'll have some duds too that will make you wonder why you picked him as your first rounder.

Everybody talks about his lack of TDs.  But the question is - WHY doesn't he have more TDs?  Bad luck (come on, for his whole career essentially?), he doesn't know how to use his body to box out in the red zone, Atlanta doesn't look to him in the red zone, etc.? 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

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16 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

You mean like last year where he averaged 16.5 a game?  Or the year before where he averaged 20?

 

What are his averages when you take away his monster games? Sure if you count his monster games, you'll also need to count his subpar games and those possibly costed many their matchups. 

 

In my .5 ppr league, he had 7 games with less than 10 points. I'd expect a more consistent performer out of my 1st round pick and last year he was a top 5 pick. 

 

Julio isn't some 4th/5th rounder but he isn't a sure fire 1st rounder either.

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20 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

You mean like last year where he averaged 16.5 a game?  Or the year before where he averaged 20?

 

JoeJoe my BroBro, my apologies for using the wrong terminology.  Probably meant to use a weekly median or some regression formula.  As it has been said on this site a million times, most of our leagues is a weekly head-to-head competition where you need to win the week.  In my highly educated and stellar opinion, having a #1 provide you 8 points 35% of his weeks and then blow up for 50 points on 10% is not going to help my standings in my league.  However, it will make his weekly average just great for the JoeJoe's of the world.

 

I will also eat a little crow.  Saying that I wouldn't draft him until the fifth round is a little ridiculous, I should know better - because he won't be available after the first 1.5 rounds and some sucker has to deal with this poor first round draft pick.

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On 8/18/2018 at 11:24 AM, oliminator123 said:

Have fun with Alex Collins and Derrick Henry as your starting RB's. 

 

I'll take 2 of these 3 backs in PPR leagues and be thrilled (Collins, Ajayi, Drake, Miller, DLewis, and Freeman) if my draft pick is past the first 6-7 picks. I'm taking one of the Big 4 RB's if I can (maybe Kamara or Barkley if I'm in that dreaded 5-8 spot) and then loading up on WR's (at least 3-4 in a row). I'll mix and match my RB2 with guys like Burkhead, Michel, Thompson, Coleman, Mack, Hyde, or CJA. 

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On 8/18/2018 at 11:27 AM, bhawks489 said:

Yeah you gotta grab a RB in the first 2 rounds if not 2 RBs 

 

Why? You have guys like Bilal Powell, James White, CJA, Matt Breida, Gio Bernard, etc. going in the double digit rounds in every league that are perfectly capable mixers if you've surrounded yourself with stud WR's and 1 of the big 3 TE's. People point to WR's like Kenny Stills going late and how much value is at WR late but forget to mention guys like Bilal Powell, Breida, and others going for near free in redrafts. 

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On 8/18/2018 at 11:24 AM, oliminator123 said:

Have fun with Alex Collins and Derrick Henry as your starting RB's. 

Honestly I see a lot more running backs late in the draft that I can picture finishing in the top 24 than I see WRs that I can predict doing the same.

 

A lot of the rbs are already banged up, there are backfields where you can get starting rbs pretty late because of team concerns and there are backfields still up in the air that you can gamble on.  The later WRs though, you pretty much know their role and it's not really a role that is going to produce good numbers.

 

It's pretty much just discussing zero rb strat at this point but when you do it you can load up 5 to 6 of these types and hope you hit on a couple.

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On 8/18/2018 at 11:03 AM, Kyle87 said:

1600 yards is still 1600 yards regardless of ppr rules.

 

What does 1600 yards have to do with Julio? He does that about as often as scoring more than 6 TDs in a season.

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16 minutes ago, TPowell said:

 

Why? You have guys like Bilal Powell, James White, CJA, Matt Breida, Gio Bernard, etc. going in the double digit rounds in every league that are perfectly capable mixers if you've surrounded yourself with stud WR's and 1 of the big 3 TE's. People point to WR's like Kenny Stills going late and how much value is at WR late but forget to mention guys like Bilal Powell, Breida, and others going for near free in redrafts. 

I guess I'm not as confident (outside of cja) of the players you listed.

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16 minutes ago, Kyle87 said:

Honestly I see a lot more running backs late in the draft that I can picture finishing in the top 24 than I see WRs that I can predict doing the same.

 

A lot of the rbs are already banged up, there are backfields where you can get starting rbs pretty late because of team concerns and there are backfields still up in the air that you can gamble on.  The later WRs though, you pretty much know their role and it's not really a role that is going to produce good numbers.

 

It's pretty much just discussing zero rb strat at this point but when you do it you can load up 5 to 6 of these types and hope you hit on a couple.

 

Exactly. I can name half a dozen backfields that nobody really knows what will happen yet (GB, SEA, SF, DEN, TB, and BAL). I think at least 3-4 of those teams will have MUCH improved offense in GB, SF, and DEN for sure. You can nab ANY GB late, as well as Matt Breida. 

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22 minutes ago, Kyle87 said:

Honestly I see a lot more running backs late in the draft that I can picture finishing in the top 24 than I see WRs that I can predict doing the same.

 

A lot of the rbs are already banged up, there are backfields where you can get starting rbs pretty late because of team concerns and there are backfields still up in the air that you can gamble on.  The later WRs though, you pretty much know their role and it's not really a role that is going to produce good numbers.

 

It's pretty much just discussing zero rb strat at this point but when you do it you can load up 5 to 6 of these types and hope you hit on a couple.

Once you hit round 6 I agree. Round 1-3 are your 1's and 2's. After that every single running back has a big question mark. 

 

I'd even argue a lot of the backs in 3 have big question marks. 

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For me, roto vs. H2H is the big factor for drafting Julio (or not drafting). Roto I'm much more comfortable with him. It's kind of like a streaky hitter in baseball, set it and forget it. Try to play matchups and get burned. 

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Games with 20+ PPR points last year: 

 

Julio = 3 (weeks 7, 12, 16)

OBJ = 2 (weeks 3, 5)

 

This despite Julio playing all season (148 targets) and OBJ only playing weeks 2-5 (41 targets). 

 

There is no comparison.

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

Games with 20+ PPR points last year: 

 

Julio = 3 (weeks 7, 12, 16)

OBJ = 2 (weeks 3, 5)

 

This despite Julio playing all season (148 targets) and OBJ only playing weeks 2-5 (41 targets). 

 

There is no comparison.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but last year scoring totals Julio was 4th in standard & 7th in PPR.

 

He was a WR1 in 8 team leagues both standard and PPR.

 

If you want weekly consistency, he is NOT your man. If you want full season of production overall (roto), he's a fine choice.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

What does 1600 yards have to do with Julio? He does that about as often as scoring more than 6 TDs in a season.

The context kinda got lost through a series of quotes.

 

Regardless his career average (minus the season he missed half the year) is over 1400... including his rookie year which was sub 1k.  I was just pointing out that yards like that are still a ton of points regardless of ppr rules.

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Julio didn't catch a TD until week 7 (with bye week) last season.

 

Consider that very odd and unlikely to happen again. I remember there being a few plays where Julio could've/should've had a TD.

 

Remember the WIDE OPEN throw he dropped in the end zone?

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