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Julio Jones 2018 Outlook


smeeze

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18 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

I think 10-12 is pretty spot on for him. Ryan needs to do a better job finding him as well.

 

He has as much chance of that as Saquon does of having 1000 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving. Within the theoretical range of outcomes, but very unlikely. 

 

Julio combined the last 2 years has scored 9 TDs. But he's going to outscore that this season? Good luck.

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"Jones has played more games over the past three years than Antonio Brown

 

 and has the same number of single-digit fantasy points weeks in that time, finishing 0.5 PPR WR2, WR5 and WR4."

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/08/20-stats-to-remember-on-draft-day/

 

"If you're fortunate to land Jones late in the first, consider yourself one lucky person. While some have said he's inconsistent, the numbers tell a different story. He's finished with WR1 numbers in 40.4 percent of his career games, which ranks second to only Odell Beckham Jr. since 2001. If you think he's too "boom or bust," the only players who have posted a higher WR3 percentage than his (73.4 percent) are Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, and Michael Thomas. He's a stud who is due for some positive touchdown regression. He might be the only one who can compete with Brown for the top wide receiver spot. While some will say Calvin Ridley could steal some targets, he will also put safeties away from Jones at times."

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/08/fantasy-football-rankings-mike-taglieres-2018-draft-ranks/

 

 

 

 

All of this to say, this talk about Julio Jones being too boom or bust is a view not backed up by the actual numbers

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Jones is an incredible talent, but he has to be the most frustrating fantasy receiver to own in tier 1. The injury concerns are always there while you watch him regularly check out of the game each week, either from tweaking something or being precautionary. Then there are the missed opportunities in the passing game resulting from errant throws, particularly in the red zone, as others have mentioned. The result is a lot of games with high targets but only a 50% catch ratio, in addition to more volatile production than you'd expect in an elite fantasy WR. Part of that is the result of inaccuracy on Ryan's part, but I also think that Julio could do a better job of using his advantages in size and strength to out-maneuver defensive backs who are often giving up around four inches and thirty pounds to him. He also seems to have trouble locating the ball and timing his jumps to come down with it. It's often hard to say whether those miscues are on Jones or his QB. Either way, Ryan and Jones seem to be lacking something in the chemistry department after all of these years, which is pretty atypical for prolific passing duos.

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After getting frustrated by his injuries and inconsistencies back-to-back years and telling myself not to draft him top 15... of course I took him as the 5th wr off the board (MT went before him), pick 14. Let's do this one more time Julio, maybe a smidgen of consistency and some touchdowns this year would be nice. 

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1 minute ago, Red Sox Nation said:

After getting frustrated by his injuries back-to-back years and telling myself not to draft him top 15... of course I took him as the 5th wr off the board (MT went before him), pick 14. Let's do this one more time Julio, maybe a smidgen of consistency and some touchdowns this year would be nice. 

 

As a fellow back to back season Julio-ian I commend you for taking the plunge again but deep down I hurt for you

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Would you sign up for 1400 yards?  Because that's his worst year in the last 4.  Nice floor.  He has more yards than Antonio Brown in that time.  His best year was better than Brown's best.  His worst year was better than Brown's worst.   And this is the unanimous #1 WR we're comparing to.  Frustration?  I'll take that kind of production at his draft position any time.  His ADP is beaten down by his 3 TDs last year.   I don't ever recall a receiver having over 1400 yards with only 3 TDs.  It can't happen again.  

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2 hours ago, Chardo said:

Would you sign up for 1400 yards?  Because that's his worst year in the last 4.  Nice floor.  He has more yards than Antonio Brown in that time.  His best year was better than Brown's best.  His worst year was better than Brown's worst.   And this is the unanimous #1 WR we're comparing to.  Frustration?  I'll take that kind of production at his draft position any time.  His ADP is beaten down by his 3 TDs last year.   I don't ever recall a receiver having over 1400 yards with only 3 TDs.  It can't happen again.  

 

Spoken like someone who has only looked at his cumulative stats but never owned him. Good luck.

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Numbers don't lie. I've owned him multiple times and will take his 200 yard games as they come. If he puts up less than 50 yards other weeks, so be it.

 

Also, it's a lock the Falcons offense will bounce back and "regress to the mean", which means at least 6 TD. He was WR5 in my league with a measly 3 TD. I look at that as a positive, not a negative. Just wait til he adds a few more TDs.

 

Julio is the freakiest WR since Calvin and could go off for 1500-1800 yards one of these years out of nowhere.

 

I would advise not taking Keenan Allen over Julio, for the poster earlier. Keenan Allen's health is a ticking time bomb.

 

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2 hours ago, austin316 said:

...it's a lock the Falcons offense will bounce back and "regress to the mean", which means at least 6 TD...

 

Ooh 6 TDs like his equally disappointing 2016 when he had 1400+ yards. 

 

Keep in mind he had 1800 yards in 2015 and scored 8 TDs. That's also hard to understand.

 

Yards/TDs - you need to put on some special glasses to look at how inefficient this dude is with volume.

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28 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

 

Ooh 6 TDs like his equally disappointing 2016 when he had 1400+ yards. 

 

Keep in mind he had 1800 yards in 2015 and scored 8 TDs. That's also hard to understand.

 

Yards/TDs - you need to put on some special glasses to look at how inefficient this dude is with volume.

 

Exactly. The guy needs 200+ targets to better 6 TDs in a season. No thanks. 

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On 8/26/2018 at 11:04 PM, atrium said:

 

 

 

All of this to say, this talk about Julio Jones being too boom or bust is a view not backed up by the actual numbers

I think it's just a relativity thing.  His booms are so f'n monstrous that following up the next week with 9 fantasy points feels like a huge let down

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4 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

 

Ooh 6 TDs like his equally disappointing 2016 when he had 1400+ yards. 

 

Keep in mind he had 1800 yards in 2015 and scored 8 TDs. That's also hard to understand.

 

Yards/TDs - you need to put on some special glasses to look at how inefficient this dude is with volume.

 

I am definitely not some Julio truther, but given that he finished 7th last  year in PPR points despite scoring 3 TDs... a move to 6 TDs would mean he 'd rank around the top 3-4 WR like he's being drafted.

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9 hours ago, Kyle87 said:

I think it's just a relativity thing.  His booms are so f'n monstrous that following up the next week with 9 fantasy points feels like a huge let down

 

Exactly.  It feels like a letdown because of so few TDs.   The reality is that he's a year in year out elite WR without being TD dependent.  If he were to score more, he would be in the Randy Moss / Calvin Johnson all time greatest discussion.  With Julio, you just settle for consistently great.

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On ‎9‎/‎1‎/‎2018 at 9:47 PM, joshua18 said:

 

Exactly. The guy needs 200+ targets to better 6 TDs in a season. No thanks. 

 

On ‎9‎/‎1‎/‎2018 at 9:18 PM, SuperJoint said:

 

Ooh 6 TDs like his equally disappointing 2016 when he had 1400+ yards. 

 

Keep in mind he had 1800 yards in 2015 and scored 8 TDs. That's also hard to understand.

 

Yards/TDs - you need to put on some special glasses to look at how inefficient this dude is with volume.

Lol did you miss where I said he was WR5 in my league DESPITE 3 TDs???...

 

Due for a positive regression. What's not to like... It's a numbers game...

 

Go take a chance on Keenan Allen and let me know how that works out. He might sneeze and get injured and/or Phil Rivers is nearing the end of his effectiveness.

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4 minutes ago, austin316 said:

 

Lol did you miss where I said he was WR5 in my league DESPITE 3 TDs???...

 

Due for a positive regression. What's not to like... It's a numbers game...

 

Go take a chance on Keenan Allen and let me know how that works out. He might sneeze and get injured and/or Phil Rivers is nearing the end of his effectiveness.

 

23 TDs in 4 years. High water mark = 8 TDs in 2015. His career high for TDs was yr 2 of his career in 2012 (6 years ago) when he had 10. 

 

I would never take Keenan over Julio because Keenan's held together by dental floss and duct tape but I'd prefer to own neither in all honesty. 

 

This situation is absurd: 6K+ yards over 4 years and 23 TDs? Where is the positive regression? This is baseline: <6 TDs per season regardless of yardage.

 

He's got the same QB now as he did all along. Same backfield (more or less). His coach is no Shanahan.

 

Where is regression happening other than wishful thinking. Really want you you're saying to be true but I'm not sure why it would be this year. I'm stuck with him this year but I know what the deal is. Owned him since he was a rookie (he was more productive then).

 

 

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Hello, I am new to the forum and haven't done fantasy football in about 5 years. I drafted Jones in the 2nd round for my starting receiver (I was picking 11th in a 12 team 0.3PPR league). I had him ranked at WR2 on my cheat sheet I made myself and my league seemed to be a little WR heavy, so I was happy I got him. Although I have not been hearing the greatest things about him. The guy in my league that sits next to me said he had him last year and it didn't do him any good. He seems pretty reliable to me though, what do you guys think?

 

WHIR once I am able to make my first post to the Assistant Coach Help Forum.

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3 minutes ago, Aurelios said:

Hello, I am new to the forum and haven't done fantasy football in about 5 years. I drafted Jones in the 2nd round for my starting receiver (I was picking 11th in a 12 team 0.3PPR league). I had him ranked at WR2 on my cheat sheet I made myself and my league seemed to be a little WR heavy, so I was happy I got him. Although I have not been hearing the greatest things about him. The guy in my league that sits next to me said he had him last year and it didn't do him any good. He seems pretty reliable to me though, what do you guys think?

 

WHIR once I am able to make my first post to the Assistant Coach Help Forum.

I think the Julio hate is an overreaction. He was fine in PPR and has 1400+ yards in the last 4 years. I can see a bounce back TD year.

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