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Julio Jones 2018 Outlook


smeeze

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6/100/2 to get me off to a 28 point head start going into the weekend please!  Is that too much to ask?

 

I'm a little befuddled as why this top receiver is so TD inefficient.  I think I read Ryan was working on it with Julio in the offseason.  Hopefully they can figure it out.

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1 minute ago, CooL said:

6/100/2 to get me off to a 28 point head start going into the weekend please!  Is that too much to ask?

 

I'm a little befuddled as why this top receiver is so TD inefficient.  I think I read Ryan was working on it with Julio in the offseason.  Hopefully they can figure it out.

 

If Julio can get back to mean on his TDs, and grow slightly on his receptions, he'd be out there with Nuk, or even close down on AB.

 

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5 hours ago, Szer0 said:

 

If Julio can get back to mean on his TDs, and grow slightly on his receptions, he'd be out there with Nuk, or even close down on AB.

 

His mean?

2011 – 8TD

2012 – 10TD

2013 – 2TD (5games)

2014 – 6TD

2015 – 8TD

2016 – 6TD

2017 – 3TD

 

His mean is like 4-6TDs his last 4 yrs. His career avg/16games is 7.24TDs. It’s not like he’s a guy who lights up the TDs. He’s gonna have like 1,400-1,500yards, 85-90recptions, 4-5TDs prolly.

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1 minute ago, 2014olympicgold said:

I'll put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised if he got 9+TDs, but I'm not drafting him and projecting him to get that 9+. His history to me has that total much lower to 4-6-ish range.

 

Yup, every Julio owner in here would be a bit surprised to see 9+ TD's. Just give me something better than last year.

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50 minutes ago, 2014olympicgold said:

His mean is like 4-6TDs his last 4 yrs. His career avg/16games is 7.24TDs. It’s not like he’s a guy who lights up the TDs. He’s gonna have like 1,400-1,500yards, 85-90recptions, 4-5TDs prolly.

 

37 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

I'll take 7-9 TD's

 

I am thinking of Julio moving back onto the ODB tier (non-injured ODB), right slightly under AB, Nuk.

 

Currently as it stand, Julio is tiered with Keenan Allen,  Michael Thomas, AJG, Adams.

 

Thinking a mean of 7-8 TDs and slight uptick of receptions,  and yards from some of those TDs coming from big play.

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On 5/25/2018 at 7:08 PM, Sternes said:

Could he actually be undervalued this year?

 

I think so. Everyone I listen to seems to be a bit down on him because of the 3 TDs last season. I still think he is the best WR in the NFL right now and the Falcons offense is legit. He has the ceiling to be the #1 WR.

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6 hours ago, CooL said:

6/100/2 to get me off to a 28 point head start going into the weekend please!  Is that too much to ask?

 

I'm a little befuddled as why this top receiver is so TD inefficient.  I think I read Ryan was working on it with Julio in the offseason.  Hopefully they can figure it out.

It’s not too much. He can go 12/250/3 as well then proceed to go 4/30/0 4x.

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Last 4 years (same number of games):

Antonio Brown: 6349 yards

Julio Jones: 6317 yards

 

Best year:

Brown: 1834

Jones: 1871

 

Worst year:

Brown: 1284

Jones: 1409

 

That's not some decent receiver in comparison.  It's the unanimous top receiver in the league.  TD's are the only difference.  Brown averages 5 more per year.  Give Julio 7-9 TD's, and he's not only elite, he's right there with the unanimous #1 WR.

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4 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Last 4 years (same number of games):

Antonio Brown: 6349 yards

Julio Jones: 6317 yards

 

Best year:

Brown: 1834

Jones: 1871

 

Worst year:

Brown: 1284

Jones: 1409

 

That's not some decent receiver in comparison.  It's the unanimous top receiver in the league.  TD's are the only difference.  Brown averages 5 more per year.  Give Julio 7-9 TD's, and he's not only elite, he's right there with the unanimous #1 WR.

 

But you can't ignore the fact he just doesn't get those TDs anymore. Either Ryan isn't just tossing them up for him to grab, or the run game is so much stronger, or Jones gets double teamed too often so the other solid WR get single coverage and get the TDs.

 

TDs are so volatile, you can't draft a guy thinking he'll go from 3TDs to 10TDs just like that. But you can't be surprised if he does explode.

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14 minutes ago, 2014olympicgold said:

 

But you can't ignore the fact he just doesn't get those TDs anymore. Either Ryan isn't just tossing them up for him to grab, or the run game is so much stronger, or Jones gets double teamed too often so the other solid WR get single coverage and get the TDs.

 

TDs are so volatile, you can't draft a guy thinking he'll go from 3TDs to 10TDs just like that. But you can't be surprised if he does explode.

 

There had never before been a receiver with over 1400 yards and only 3 TDs.  He won't go from 3 to 10 just like that.  But he will have more.  Perhaps a lot more.  

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2 hours ago, 2014olympicgold said:

His mean?

 

2011 – 8TD

 

2012 – 10TD

 

2013 – 2TD (5games)

 

2014 – 6TD

 

2015 – 8TD

 

2016 – 6TD

 

2017 – 3TD

 

 

 

His mean is like 4-6TDs his last 4 yrs. His career avg/16games is 7.24TDs. It’s not like he’s a guy who lights up the TDs. He’s gonna have like 1,400-1,500yards, 85-90recptions, 4-5TDs prolly.

Every season but one, he's had 6+ TDs, so where are you getting your mean from? And where is your 4-5 TD estimate coming from, considering that once again he's had one season below 6 TDs?

 

It's fine to be conservative and expect 6-7 TDs, but it just seems like you're warping his statistics to fit some narrative. We all know he doesn't light up the TDs

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40 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Last 4 years (same number of games):

Antonio Brown: 6349 yards

Julio Jones: 6317 yards

 

Best year:

Brown: 1834

Jones: 1871

 

Worst year:

Brown: 1284

Jones: 1409

 

That's not some decent receiver in comparison.  It's the unanimous top receiver in the league.  TD's are the only difference.  Brown averages 5 more per year.  Give Julio 7-9 TD's, and he's not only elite, he's right there with the unanimous #1 WR.

 

That is so flawed.

 

AB, unlike Julio is way more consistent with his catches, yardage AND scores, week in and week out. 

 

In my .5 ppr league, Julio had 1 game over 50 points, 2 games around 20 points and 7 games under 10 points. He basically helped in 3 weeks.

 

AB had 2 games almost 40 (39.4, 37.9) with 7 games over 10 points, 6 of those over 20. He helped in 8 weeks, and maybe 9.

 

Just love how the uninitiated always look at Julio's season numbers as a whole and think he's great. Last I checked, fantasy football is not rotisserie. It is weekly H2H.

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1 hour ago, Zekepeak86 said:

You start him, bottom line.

LOL.  Yes, you start your first (or perhaps even second) round draft pick.  That's always good advice.  Unless his name is Le'Veon.

 

I think the majority of us that have him didn't really WANT him, but he was best available on the board when it was our turn to pick.  At least that's how it is with me.  I know some here think that he is WR#2 and perhaps actively targeted him.  Certainly not me.  I've never owned the guy.  But I'm hoping this is the year he'll blow up and make people pay for disrespecting him.

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31 minutes ago, CooL said:

The problem is Julio is projected for 20.65 PPR points and he's not even going to make that.

 

24 minutes ago, CooL said:

 

 

Are you always this fun?

 

When Julio is your first round draft pick, yes, you expect a stud and you expect him to exceed projections.  At least I do.  Maybe you don't.

 

The only good that came out of the Philly TD is maybe Julio owners  can hope for a few more looks for him.. 

 

I'm calling you out here because I got tired of this BS in this thread and in the game thread from you, and because you called me out for not being 'fun'.

 

If you're not gonna be happy owning Julio, and you're gonna rag on him the first time he has a down game because you have a negative attitude about owning him in the first place, just trade him away. Us owners who are glad to own him don't want to hear this bull**** after every down game he has (and as if it needed to be said, every stud RB/WR has had and will have a down game). Just trade him away now that's he had a big game, it sounds like it'll make you happy, and it'll make us happy not to hear about it anymore.

 

 

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