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Allen Hurns 2018 Outlook


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15 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Is a bounce back possible?

 

I'm not sure "bounce back" is the term I'd use. Nothing against Hurnsy, but I'm wondering if his one good year (that's one in four) was more fluke and positioning than talent. In 2015, Hurns landed 64 receptions for 1031 yards (and a miraculous 10 TDs). His numbers before and after have been piddling, not anywhere close. I wouldn't draft him, wouldn't target him, and after Dak's last season (more about decisions than numbers), Zeke's desire to feed---and the Cowboys' preference for a ball-control offense---I think there are too many questionables here. Unless Dez gets injured, I can see Hurns going undrafted.

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Free-agent WR Allen Hurns (Jaguars) told ESPN's Josina Anderson on Friday, March 23, he plans on signing with the Dallas Cowboys. NFL. com's Ian Rapoport reports it will be a two-year deal. Financial terms of the contract have yet to be disclosed.

 

Writer's Analysis: One day after adding Deonte Thompson, the Cowboys continue their quest to upgrade one of the weakest spots on the team with Hurns, who can play inside or outside. Hurns is capable of beating out Terrance Williams for a starting job, but a platoon seems like the most likely scenario in 2018 - assuming the Cowboys keep Dez Bryant around. Barring an injury to Bryant or Williams, Hurns is unlikely to be worthy of a spot on fantasy benches this year.

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1 hour ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I'm not sure "bounce back" is the term I'd use. Nothing against Hurnsy, but I'm wondering if his one good year (that's one in four) was more fluke and positioning than talent. In 2015, Hurns landed 64 receptions for 1031 yards (and a miraculous 10 TDs). His numbers before and after have been piddling, not anywhere close. I wouldn't draft him, wouldn't target him, and after Dak's last season (more about decisions than numbers), Zeke's desire to feed---and the Cowboys' preference for a ball-control offense---I think there are too many questionables here. Unless Dez gets injured, I can see Hurns going undrafted.

Right, it doesn't take Malcolm Gladwell to see that 2015 is the outlier in Hurns's career. However, he wasn't exactly a scrub in 2014. In fact, if you look at his first 2 seasons, he averaged 57.5 catches, 854 yards, and 8 TDs. That's in his first 2 NFL seasons too. Catching passes from Blake Bortles with the likes of a still decent Cecil Shorts, and Allen Robinson on the roster. 

 

Since then, he's spent 2 seasons hurt. On the rare occasion he's actually been healthy, he's shown flashes (7 games with at least 5 receptions in limited action over the last 2 seasons).

 

If, and as with any NFL player it's a big if, he stays healthy, I don't see why he isn't (potentially) a top 30 PPR WR as one of the top targets in Dallas. Basically being a Crabtree, Kearse, Sanu, Kupp,  Agholor type. None of those guys were the number 1 WR on their team last year, and all finished as top 30 WRs in PPR. 

 

... Of course, Prescott is an important variable here too, but that's a topic for another thread. 

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1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

Free-agent WR Allen Hurns (Jaguars) told ESPN's Josina Anderson on Friday, March 23, he plans on signing with the Dallas Cowboys. NFL. com's Ian Rapoport reports it will be a two-year deal. Financial terms of the contract have yet to be disclosed.

 

Writer's Analysis: One day after adding Deonte Thompson, the Cowboys continue their quest to upgrade one of the weakest spots on the team with Hurns, who can play inside or outside. Hurns is capable of beating out Terrance Williams for a starting job, but a platoon seems like the most likely scenario in 2018 - assuming the Cowboys keep Dez Bryant around. Barring an injury to Bryant or Williams, Hurns is unlikely to be worthy of a spot on fantasy benches this year.

Very different hot take from the Rotoworld Blurb writers. It's disconcerting that I'm leaning toward agreeing with RW. 

 

Terrance Williams' $3.5 million salary is guaranteed but Hurns could challenge him as starter opposite of Dez Bryant from the moment camp opens. Hurns also led Jacksonville in routes run from the slot last season and could immediately trump Cole Beasley, who's entering the final year of his deal. 

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5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Right, it doesn't take Malcolm Gladwell to see that 2015 is the outlier in Hurns's career. However, he wasn't exactly a scrub in 2014. In fact, if you look at his first 2 seasons, he averaged 57.5 catches, 854 yards, and 8 TDs. That's in his first 2 NFL seasons too. Catching passes from Blake Bortles with the likes of a still decent Cecil Shorts, and Allen Robinson on the roster. 

 

Since then, he's spent 2 seasons hurt. On the rare occasion he's actually been healthy, he's shown flashes (7 games with at least 5 receptions in limited action over the last 2 seasons).

 

If, and as with any NFL player it's a big if, he stays healthy, I don't see why he isn't a top 30 PPR WR as one of the top targets in Dallas. Basically being a Crabtree, Kearse, Sanu, Kupp,  Agholor type. None of those guys were the number 1 WR on their team last year, and all finished as top 30 WRs in PPR. 

 

... Of course, Prescott is an important variable here too, but that's a topic for another thread. 

 

Well, I reckon if you're suggesting Hurns may "bounce back into the top 30 WRs," that is more palatable. But out of the receivers you mention, I'd suggest Crabtree, Kupp, and Agholor have a stronger argument for top 30 results. For my two cents, the jury is till out on Hurnsy.

 

2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Very different hot take from the Rotoworld Blurb writers. It's disconcerting that I'm leaning toward agreeing with RW. 

 

Terrance Williams' $3.5 million salary is guaranteed but Hurns could challenge him as starter opposite of Dez Bryant from the moment camp opens. Hurns also led Jacksonville in routes run from the slot last season and could immediately trump Cole Beasley, who's entering the final year of his deal. 

 

Like I mentioned earlier, I can see Hurns going undrafted.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Well, I reckon if you're suggesting Hurns may "bounce back into the top 30 WRs," that is more palatable. But out of the receivers you mention, I'd suggest Crabtree, Kupp, and Agholor have a stronger argument for top 30 results. For my two cents, the jury is till out on Hurnsy.

 

Without a doubt. Hurns will be a heck of a lot cheaper than any of those guys though. 

 

2 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

Like I mentioned earlier, I can see Hurns going undrafted.

Case in point. 

 

I'm not saying Hurns is a sure thing, or that you're going to need to reach for him in any draft. However, I do see a clear path to solid WR3 production for him. 

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I think it's a really good signing for the Cowboys. Not much risk involved and maybe a change of scenery is what he needs. He may have some deep (bench) fantasy value in non-PPR leagues. I'll have to see how his pre-season goes but I may be willing to take a very late round flyer on him.

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If Hurns can stay healthy(a big if) I think its a great signing for Dallas.  Gives them their first legitimate number 2 WR in years.  As for fantasy purposes I don't see him as anything more then a WR4 at best.

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1 hour ago, youngrice said:

If Hurns can stay healthy(a big if) I think its a great signing for Dallas.  Gives them their first legitimate number 2 WR in years

 

Dez Bryant?

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2 hours ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Dez Bryant?

with adding hurns, and thompson i dont think Ds can key on dez anymore. thats the value of a good #2. williams just aint....i know everyone wants to slam dez, but know you've got to account for 2 pretty good wrs in this offense, keep safeties up for the run, and this should open things up for dez even if he has lost a step. best thing that could have happened for this offense. dez and hurns will feed off each other. witten will be a better short game now. and thompson could maybe even start on the outside. lots of possibilities here. like it.

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2 hours ago, not an nfl scout said:

with adding hurns, and thompson i dont think Ds can key on dez anymore. 

 

They really didn't key on him last year,  that's the concerning thing.  They keyed on Beasley and forced Dez/Dak to beat the one on one coverage... which they didn't consistently do. 

 

Zeke being in the backfield to simply reads for Dan should in theory help though. 

 

Thompson is a smaller version of Brice Butler who they didn't even use.  Not sure what's wrong with this coaching staff sometimes. :(

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Plenty of room on the hype train, ladies and gentlemen. Come on in and get comfy. 

 

Seriously though, if the Cowboys do cut Dez, I expect that they'll draft a WR early. 

 

Depth chart could be:

 

Rookie

Hurns

Beasley

Thompson

 

Targets will be available, to say the least. 

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  • 2 months later...
20 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

So... without Dez and Witten in the picture, is Hurns talented enough to be THE guy? 

Is 1,200 yards and 10TDs doable? 

 

Not a chance. But 900 / 6-7 is.

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Hurns is so JAG, but how can we ignore him in the circumstance he finds himself in.  Play action alone guarantees that he gets some good looks every week.   By default, he's a major RZ cog too.

 

Thompson and Gallup will make some noise, but it is Hurns who is best positioned to claim the title of WR1 on that  team.  I can't believe I just said that.

 

 

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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Hurns might end up being a very solid WR2 in fantasy this season. He is going to see a lot of volume I think. Have to hope he stays healthy. Going to be a low ADP as well probably. Real value potential here.

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55 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Hurns is so JAG, but how can we ignore him in the circumstance he finds himself in.  Play action alone guarantees that he gets some good looks every week.   By default, he's a major RZ cog too.

 

Thompson and Gallup will make some noise, but it is Hurns who is best positioned to claim the title of WR1 on that  team.  I can't believe I just said that.

 

I'm not leaning in either direction, just throwing something out here to deepen the discussion, so avoid attacking the good guy, but is it at least possible----possible----that it's Dak who's the real Cow-JAG, and that like Bortles he's shown some excellent gameplay but in the end is too inconsistent, and that his ineffectualness renders the Cowboys offense one-dimensional as they lean on Zeke and defenses counter to shut Zeke down, and the WRs become a mismash of problematic receivers due to inconsistent QB play? Possible? Just sayin'.

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3 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I'm not leaning in either direction, just throwing something out here to deepen the discussion, so avoid attacking the good guy, but is it at least possible----possible----that it's Dak who's the real Cow-JAG, and that like Bortles he's shown some excellent gameplay but in the end is too inconsistent, and that his ineffectualness renders the Cowboys offense one-dimensional as they lean on Zeke and defenses counter to shut Zeke down, and the WRs become a mismash of problematic receivers due to inconsistent QB play? Possible? Just sayin'.

 

I'm not convinced of Dak either.  But he has already proven he can execute the basic play action pass game well enough.  As long as defenses have to sell out so much to stop that potent run game, Dak can connect with Hurns regularly.   

 

Any QB and WR can experience success when the run game is elite, at least when they aren't playing from way behind because the defense has bled points.  That is a constant in the NFL.  That's why I just can't shake Hurns as a legitimate fantasy asset:

 

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42 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

That's why I just can't shake Hurns as a legitimate fantasy asset:

 

 

Given the situation and Hurnsy’s low price tag, he’s entirely legit regarding risk-vs-value, practically a gift.

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