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Andrew Triggs 2018 Outlook


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Anything to see here? Might be worth a look late in drafts of 12+ teams now that he's earned a rotation spot. He was great before getting hurt last season, and I've seen him listed on a few sleeper/deep sleeper lists this preseason, including these:

 

http://fantasysixpack.net/2018-fantasy-baseball-pitching-super-sleepers/

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=35066

https://www.faketeams.com/2017/11/21/16683566/5-deep-fantasy-baseball-sleepers-going-into-2018-drafts-kike-hernandez-enrique-colin-moran-jurickson

 

Excerpt from the last link:

Andrew Triggs, SP, Oakland Athletics

Triggs is one of the most interesting players going into 2018. Before reaching the major leagues, he had only started one of his 168 career minor leagues games. Since reaching the major leagues he has started half of the games he has pitched in. There are some questions concerning Triggs status in the rotation. It is still unknown if the he will start the season in the bullpen or rotation, but he could prove to be a valuable asset either way. I say that because with the declining number of innings starting pitchers are throwing, middle relievers could prove to actually be quite valuable in 2018.

The reason I like Triggs so much is mostly due to his ability to produce ground balls and reduce hard contact. His lifetime 50.3% ground ball rate and 26.8% hard contact rate are very impressive, especially from someone who seems to not get much love at all. 

I know some people may see that 6.89 K/9 from last season and get scared off, but don’t let that frighten you too much as he has shown signs of improvement. His 10.4% swinging strike rate and 75.7% contact rate would suggest that his K/9 will most likely be around eight in 2018. Not only can Triggs accumulate a decent amount of strikeouts, but he doesn’t walk many batters either. He owns a career 2.37 BB/9, which is quite impressive. If you combine that with a 8 K/9 and a good amount of ground balls, he could prove to be one of the most overlooked players entering 2018 drafts.

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I've got him in a very deep league (20 teams, and 5 required SP slots).  I think he's a FA in all my other leagues (which are also deep, but slightly more shallow).

 

I think he's worth a speculative grab if you don't have any other good options.  You don't have to run to get him:  there's virtually no hype for him, so you can wait if you need to.

 

Best info I can find is that he's the A's 4th starter (from someone on twitter like Susan Slusser, A's beat writer).  That would line him up to pitch against the Angels.  As you can see in my recent thread "Offenses to Stream SP Against" (link below), I would put the Angels in the middle tier, and the game is at O.co in Oakland, which is a pitcher's park and is home field (so hopefully more comfortable for Triggs in his first start of the season).  I think it's a decent streaming matchup, especially if your league does QS instead of W.  

 

Otherwise, just wait and see.  If he does well, maybe pick him up for his next start.

 

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Thanks for the detailed response! The fact that he pitches half his games in Oakland is another reason I took notice. Plus I also play in a 20-team league, deep with savvy managers. Definitely giving him a close look. 

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12 whiffs on 88 pitches good for a 13%+ swinging strike rate. If he can maintain something close to this 8+ K/9 should be in reach to go along with a solid WHIP. Could be a good back end guy for your rotation.

 

One red flag is he allowed 69% hard contact last night - so monitor that going forward.

Edited by Dirtywater97
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Triggs has shown the potential to be a 10%+ swinging strike rate guy, coupled with close to a 50% gb rate, better than league average contact rate, and has had back to back years had a hard-hit rate under 27%. For reference, only two pitchers with 150+ ip last year (Scherzer and J. Montgomery) had a rate below 27%. An issue for him has been a horrendous LOB% - back to back years under 65%. No pitcher with 150+ ip last year was under 65%. If he can get that strand rate above 70%, he can actually be a very useful pitcher.

 

I wouldn't bank on anything magical happening here, and he may be clear WW fodder in a few weeks, but someone with 10%swstr/50% gb/league low hard-hit rate is more than worth a roster spot imo. 

Edited by Red Sox Nation
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4 hours ago, Dirtywater97 said:

12 whiffs on 88 pitches good for a 13%+ swinging strike rate. If he can maintain something close to this 8+ K/9 should be in reach to go along with a solid WHIP. Could be a good back end guy for your rotation.

 

One red flag is he allowed 69% hard contact last night - so monitor that going forward.

 

2 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Triggs has shown the potential to be a 10%+ swinging strike rate guy, coupled with close to a 50% gb rate, better than league average contact rate, and has had back to back years had a hard-hit rate under 27%. For reference, only two pitchers with 150+ ip last year (Scherzer and J. Montgomery) had a rate below 27%. An issue for him has been a horrendous LOB% - back to back years under 65%. No pitcher with 150+ ip last year was under 65%. If he can get that strand rate above 70%, he can actually be a very useful pitcher.

 

I wouldn't bank on anything magical happening here, and he may be clear WW fodder in a few weeks, but someone with 10%swstr/50% gb/league low hard-hit rate is more than worth a roster spot imo. 

 

 

I think the Hard% is a testament to the fact that Triggs is a pitcher who relies on just a ton of smoke a mirrors. He tries to keep hitters off balance. Full disclaimer, I haven't physically watched him nearly as much in 2017 and I did preparing for 2017, but he throws a Slider and a Cutter, which are essentially the same pitch but one is a lot sharper and one a lot like a Frisbee and they can be kind of hard for hitters to decipher. The Sinker has good movement but he needs to keep it on the corners and ideally he can steal strikes by working it thru the backdoor corner. 

 

Ultimately, I recommended Triggs this week on a show v. TEX, but to me he's a home streamer. I'd be very cautious to start him in a bad park. I think the HR/9 would be problematic in most parks, but in Oakland I'm streaming him on those home starts for the most part. 

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On 4/3/2018 at 1:02 PM, taobball said:

 

 

 

I think the Hard% is a testament to the fact that Triggs is a pitcher who relies on just a ton of smoke a mirrors. He tries to keep hitters off balance. Full disclaimer, I haven't physically watched him nearly as much in 2017 and I did preparing for 2017, but he throws a Slider and a Cutter, which are essentially the same pitch but one is a lot sharper and one a lot like a Frisbee and they can be kind of hard for hitters to decipher. The Sinker has good movement but he needs to keep it on the corners and ideally he can steal strikes by working it thru the backdoor corner. 

 

Ultimately, I recommended Triggs this week on a show v. TEX, but to me he's a home streamer. I'd be very cautious to start him in a bad park. I think the HR/9 would be problematic in most parks, but in Oakland I'm streaming him on those home starts for the most part. 

 

So I'm going to retract and update a few things I said here.

 

One interesting thing is that during my last evaluation of Triggs he was using his Cutter+Slider a lot more. He used a Curveball a bit more throughout 2017, but more to the point threw it a considerable amount in his first start. 

 

That Curveball also got 8 Whiffs in 33 Uses (24.2%). 

 

So that's at least interesting. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
3 hours ago, midlip said:

Streaming him because of a crap performance by fulmer...can he go six?

 

Going back to last year, at a quick glance he's only thrown 95+ pitches 5 of 14 starts. Has only gone 6 innings in 6/14 starts. Looking at last year, his slugging % allowed and overall ERA shot up the 3rd time through the order. I've been reading that he did work on his arm slot (click here), so maybe that will help him be sharper later in games this year. It's certainly something to keep an eye on. 

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Yeah, same boat as the rest of you guys. Game at home against CHW, this is what streamer matchups are supposed to look like.

 

I wasn't watching but had the audio on at work and it sounded like he wasn't locating well, took a little off his pitches, and then gave up a GS to Moncada. 

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1 hour ago, Lebanasty said:

 

50 bucks says the Smails kid picks his nose

 

EDIT: Yes off topic, but I needed to see if anyone else gets the reference.

50 bucks more says he eats it.   Lol

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