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Garlando's 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects


garlando
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 Nice.  

 

Since you put in projections a couple of comments:

 

Gore - his ceiling is the best SP in baseball.  Bold comment but I'll stand by it.

 

Urias - higher BA.  More like 320.

 

Jordan Adell should be on all top 100 lists imo.  I personally consider him a top 30 guy. 

 

Yordan Alvarez has a higher ceiling as well imo.  I have him as a top 20 guy (although you're as high as I've seen anyone else).

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2 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 Nice.  

 

Since you put in projections a couple of comments:

 

Gore - his ceiling is the best SP in baseball.  Bold comment but I'll stand by it.

 

Urias - higher BA.  More like 320.

 

Jordan Adell should be on all top 100 lists imo.  I personally consider him a top 30 guy. 

 

Yordan Alvarez has a higher ceiling as well imo.  I have him as a top 20 guy (although you're as high as I've seen anyone else).

 

Jo Adell is no 31

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6 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

 

Yordan Alvarez has a higher ceiling as well imo.  I have him as a top 20 guy (although you're as high as I've seen anyone else).

 

Really happy to hear this from both you guys.  I'm high too. I think he was hurt at the end of last season. Real buying opportunity if anyone is souring on him because of his high A stats.

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Going to go through this and comment a few times I’m sure. First thing that jumped out on me is I think you are too conservative on callups for eloy, Tucker , and Vlad. Pretty confident Tucker and Eloy will get a call up this year and vlad will next.

 

I think Tucker is up for sure this year.  They'll make room. 

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3 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Not a big believer in Heliot Ramos I see.  Some folks really like him others think he'll never hit off-speed stuff. 

 

Guys like that just have such a huge variance in potential outcomes.  A lot of it comes down to how teachable he is.  If someone told me he will be a top 10 guy in two years I'd believe it.  If someone said he'll never be more than a 4th OF or bench bat I'd believe that too.

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15 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 Nice.  

 

Since you put in projections a couple of comments:

 

Gore - his ceiling is the best SP in baseball.  Bold comment but I'll stand by it.

 

Urias - higher BA.  More like 320.

 

Jordan Adell should be on all top 100 lists imo.  I personally consider him a top 30 guy. 

 

Yordan Alvarez has a higher ceiling as well imo.  I have him as a top 20 guy (although you're as high as I've seen anyone else).

I'm pretty much there with you on MacKenzie Gore, my projections on him as you can see on the list, are the 2nd best among pitching prospects next to Forrest Whitley. I ranked him below the likes of Triston McKenzie, Walker Buehler, and Mitch Keller due to proximity to the majors, but I'm with you in that Gore could be truly special and be a notch above them. Big fan!

Luis Urias I agree is one of the best prospects in terms of future batting average outlook, but projecting a .320 BA seems closer to a ceiling projection rather than a safe prime projection. You'll notice that I'm not predicting ceilings here, I have no .300 hitters, or 40 HR sluggers, so my scale for predictions is on the safer side but still is a reasonable outcome if things were to go right for these prospects. In the case of Urias, he hit .296 last year in AA for San Antonio which plays in a bit of a pitchers park with a 0.913 Hits rate (1 is considered neutral) but the league as a whole is considered fairly neutral. The .330 batting average he posted in 2016 came in the CAL league which is a notorious hitters league because of the elevation of some of the ballparks throughout the league. These along with consistent 70 Hit Tool (translates to a .300 AVG) grades from scouts/scouting services don't give me confidence in projecting him to hit .320 throughout his prime. He's been super young throughout pretty much every stop in his minor league career, so maybe he has another level to get to.  I think he has a chance to maybe put up a .320 season in one of his best years, just not consistently. At this point though, I don't feel comfortable saying that he would be a consistent threat to hit .320 in his prime.

Regarding Jordan Adell, I have him at 31 so our view on him aren't very different at all haha. He's listed as "Jo Adell" on pretty much every resource now so I used that name on the list. I'm with you though, in terms of upside, he could be pretty special!

And finally I'm glad you like Yordan Alvarez, I have had discussions with others in the community suggesting he has been underrated by traditional scouting services. He's already showing plus contact skills (11.1% Swinging-Strike rate in A ball, 7.1% Swinging-Strike rate in A+ last year), has a nice batted ball mix (lots of Line-drives, reasonable GB and FB rates), and at 6 foot 5, 225 lbs with plus plus raw power that he could tap into more of soon...there's a lot to like about Alvarez. I think he's one of the better power hitting prospects in all of baseball, and something like a future .285 30+ HR hitter wouldn't surprise me, but I think my initial projection for him is fair and think that's a reasonable future prime projection.

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15 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Fantastic list and appreciate the post!

...and not just because it looks an awful lot like mine ;) (but that helps)

Do you tweet prospect thoughts and general baseball musings??

 

 

15 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Thanks so much!  Love it.  Love you give ETAs and projects in a clear way too.

 

(You may have to re-think AJ Puk though in the short term now).

Thanks for the kind words guys! I don't use Twitter but it may be something I get into if there's enough demand. I'm not a scout, I'm like most of us on here I would think in that I love baseball and am nerd about the beautiful game and prospects are my passion. I'm an analyst by trade (that's what I do for a living) so I love dissecting the numbers of prospects and trying to understand what they mean. I get most of my scouting info from other resources (and there's a lot of resources I follow and then I always fact check!) and I decide whether that info is valid and useful and form my own opinions based on all the info. I also watch video and watch games when I can, and utilize my own baseball knowledge and experience playing the game at a high-level to make my own opinions too. If you ever want to talk baseball/prospects, I'm always up for that in PM. I have an ongoing dialog with a few community members that I really enjoy :)

And that's rough news for AJ Puk, definitely one of the more promising arms in the minors with that wicked Fastball/Slider combo. Hope he comes back healthy and we get to see him perform at a high level for years to come!

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13 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Going to go through this and comment a few times I’m sure. First thing that jumped out on me is I think you are too conservative on callups for eloy, Tucker , and Vlad. Pretty confident Tucker and Eloy will get a call up this year and vlad will next.

 

12 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Love the Pearson tank and that Medina made the list. Peter Alonso too ??

 

 

I will admit that I messed up the ETA's on a few prospects, particularly at the top of the list including Vlad Jr, Eloy Jimenez,  and Kyle Tucker. I copied the first few names over from my mid-season top 100 list last year to get me started (up until Willie Calhoun) before I started writing them all out. I made sure to adjust the projections on everyone because to me, the rank and projections were the most crucial part of the process, but it looks like I missed changing a couple of the ETA's at the top and that I forgot to change Jorge Mateo's team to Oakland. I'm with you in saying that Vlad Jr is probably a 2019 ETA now, especially after the assignment to AA to start the year. There's a non-zero chance he and Bo make an appearance late this year too! Eloy Jimenez I would guess makes a September appearance this year, and is up full time for 2019, the White Sox have no reason to rush him but I'm going to guess that he makes it impossible to keep him down this year. Kyle Tucker's ETA is something I'm not sure on, I think he's supremely talented and could help them this year and be an upgrade in the OF, but there's also lots of depth already in HOU and there isn't any room for him unless there is an injury or they make room for him. I would project them to give Tucker a callup mid/late in the year and have him in a position to be an everyday player in 2019. Similar to my thoughts on Eloy, Tucker will force his way into the Astros lineup at some point imo.

And yeah I've been driving the hype train of Pearson and I think I have ranked the highest that I have seen, I know you are in on him and own him so let's enjoy the hype train from the captain's seat! Thank you for sharing about Medina, I've done a bunch of research on him since you mentioned him to me and I'm sold on his upside. The Yankees have had a lot of success getting the most out of arms in recent years, and Medina arguably is the most talented yet so I'm excited to see what he does this year! And Peter Alonso is criminally underrated, all he's done is hit throughout his college and minor league career and I think he's one of the better 1st base/power hitting prospects in the minors. Definitely worthy of top 100 fantasy prospect status in my eyes.

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12 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Not a big believer in Heliot Ramos I see.  Some folks really like him others think he'll never hit off-speed stuff. 

 

Like was mentioned above by @96mnc, Ramos is a guy with a super wide range of potential outcomes and I feel like I tried to come up with the most reasonable future one considering what he's shown thus far. First, the power and speed are legit, and that makes his fantasy ceiling very high, especially if he learns how to make more contact and improve his approach. What concerns me though is the rawness in terms of contact and approach...a 31.8% K rate in the Arizona league (which along with the GCL forms the lowest rung of North American minor league baseball) is scary, and that came with a ridiculously high 42.1% Swinging-Strike rate (MLB average is 9.5%). Those sort of contact issues just won't be sustainable as he moves up the minor league ladder, and he will have to really improve his contact skills and approach to make use of the skills that us fantasy baseball players are drooling over (power and speed). To me, he's arguably the guy on the list with the highest risk/highest reward range of outcomes...I could easily see him being a top 10 prospect in a couple years if he makes big contact gains, or he could stall out at AA if the contact issues become too much to overcome with more advanced pitching. Hope that was helpful! 

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In regards to Eloy, I still think before September makes sense. Personally I don’t understand ever calling up an elite prospect in September unless you’re competing. We can assume the White Sox aren’t, so I imagine it’s going to happen shortly after super 2 or the Acuna treatment ( 2 weeks into 2019) . A September call up just delays a 2019 call up or loses some control. 

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11 hours ago, Jor357 said:

Alex Reyes ? 

I did not include Alex Reyes on the list due to my belief that he's a lock to make the Cardinals MLB roster once healthy. He's expected back in May and I think he'll be helping them pretty much right away in some capacity. I like Reyes, I had him 10th on my mid-season update last year!

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Thanks very much for sharing this list.  I've been enjoying your posts on a lot of the MLB threads this spring in prepping for draft season.

 

Curious to see if you were willing to share any more detailed thoughts on Gleyber Torres.  I've seen comparisons to Correa with him and he seems to have a pretty clear path with placeholders at both MI positions in New York.  I am assuming you don't buy the comparison and was surprised to see him at #20 behind someone like Brendan Rodgers and Willie Calhoun.

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On 3/28/2018 at 5:31 PM, AHF said:

Thanks very much for sharing this list.  I've been enjoying your posts on a lot of the MLB threads this spring in prepping for draft season.

 

Curious to see if you were willing to share any more detailed thoughts on Gleyber Torres.  I've seen comparisons to Correa with him and he seems to have a pretty clear path with placeholders at both MI positions in New York.  I am assuming you don't buy the comparison and was surprised to see him at #20 behind someone like Brendan Rodgers and Willie Calhoun.

Thanks for the kind words, I appreciate it!

Regarding Torres, I'm personally a little lower on him as a fantasy prospect compared to some as I think that he's perhaps a better real-life prospect than a fantasy one. First, I would disagree with Correa comparisons for Torres...Correa consistently showed a better hit tool and more power throughout his minor league career when compared to Torres. Just simply looking at their numbers in comparison, Correa has consistently outperformed Torres in wRC+ at the same ages and levels. Add in scouting reports from years past, Correa was graded with 60 hit and 70 power in 2014 by MLB.com at 19 years of age, and at 20 in the year he progressed from AA to AAA to the Majors and hit a combined 32 HRs and 32 SBs that year...he had received grades of 70 hit and 65 power. Torres in comparison at 19 was traded to the Yankees that year and was considered a lesser prospect in comparison, receiving a 55 hit and 50 power grades, and then in 2017 his scouting grades jumped a ton to 65 Hit and 55 power and a lot of that was related to his Arizona Fall League performance where he won MVP of the event (youngest ever) with a .403 avg which is certainly super impressive, but I also want to point out that it is a fairly small 18 game sample. Another factor that I think could be controversial to some, but I feel some of his hype was Yankee bias related too. Not saying that Torres didn't/doesn't deserve the hype because he's a really good talent and has performed well throughout his minor league career, but I personally didn't buy all the hype he was getting at the beginning of last year and I still don't think he's among the very top fantasy prospects in the game. You can see from my projection of him, I view his as a 65 hit, 50-55 power guy which translates to about a .290ish hitter with 19-22 HRs, add in a handful of steals (Note that he hasn't been very efficient throughout his minor league career), and you see where I got his projection from. Those numbers look good if Torres plays SS, but they don't look nearly as good at 3rd Base or 2nd base, and with Gregorius looking like the Yankees SS for the next while, that contributed to my ranking too. You mention Brendan Rodgers, and I could easily argue that he hits for more power with a comparable batting average and speed and that makes ranking him ahead of Torres easy for me. Calhoun is similar, comparable batting averages (Torres might slightly better) but Calhoun has 30+ HR upside and that makes him more valuable imo.

I feel like that was just me rambling and talking Torres down haha. I don't want it to look like I don't like/believe in Torres, I really like him and think he's one of the safest high floor prospects in the game! I just don't value him as a truly elite fantasy prospect because I think there are higher upside guys available, and if Torres doesn't end up at SS, then his value takes a hit somewhat. Hope that was helpful!

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