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Garlando's 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects


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4 hours ago, bigbossman said:

You missed Yusniel Diaz... Not even a HM

I considered Diaz, but I'm just not a big fan of his future fantasy upside at this time. Scouting reports have his important fantasy tools of hit/power/speed all in the 45/50/55 range which is solid but unspectacular. I think he has a chance to hit reasonably, something like .260-.270ish, and get on base but beyond that, I question what else he's going to bring that makes him valuable out of an OF position fantasy wise. Looking at his power, he hasn't done a ton in the CAL league which is notorious for power...hitting 16 HRs between 2016 and 2017 in the league in 722 ABs. That came with sub .150 ISO's and high ground-ball rates. That doesn't scream a lot of power upside, and I think 10-15 would be a reasonable projection for him there. Looking at his speed, I've been super disappointed with his inefficiency as he's been CS more often than successfully stolen a base at every stop of his minor league career (16 SBs versus 22 CS in his minor league career). That tells me that he likely lacks great instincts for stealing, and/or that he's not super fast (Fangraphs has him rated as a current 55 speed with a 50 future). Both aren't great when projecting his speed upside and I think that makes projecting anything more than 5ish SBs in the majors, not a safe bet. Add it up, and I see a guy that is maybe a .270 hitter with 15 HRs and 5 SBs with that being a slightly optimistic projection...and I just don't feel he makes the cut. All the guys I have ranked and mentioned in the HM section I feel have a higher upside, simple as that.

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I would trust Garlandos opinion over mine or anyone who has actually seen the guys play.

 

That being said I'm down on Shaw. Corner infield is an extremely deep position and unless he gets traded that's the worst landing spot for him. You'd have to be in a pretty deep league to see value in Shaw imo. Fangraphs has the hit tool at 40 present and max. I'm just not seeing a ton to be excited about. He beasted last year with a poor walk rate for a power hitter and a near 30k rate.

 

I think he could be decent, just not seeing a ton to be excited about. Maybe having a lame name is clouding my judgment.

 

I own shares of someone like Michael Chavis and I see plenty of reasons he could be worthless and never a starter and I like him considerably better than Shaw. 

 

Garlando has Peter Alonso ranked pretty high and he's on very few if any lists. If that guy continues to do what he's doing and improve on 1b defense thats very exciting. He's not too far away either. He's probably free in a lot of leagues where only 100-150 are owned.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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On 4/5/2018 at 11:11 AM, bigbossman said:

What about Chris Shaw?

@brockpapersizer expressed a lot of the reasons why I'm not high on Shaw enough to rank him or place him among my honorable mentions for this list. Thing is, I think he could be decent, he's received plus power grades everywhere and I've read reports of 65 raw and you can see it as he's able to hit HRs to all fields with 7 of his 24 HRs going to the opposite field last year. He cut down on his groundballs last year and that led to slightly more Flyballs which is good for his power, and he added a bunch of Line-drives too (25%+ in both stops last year) which should help him maintain plus BAPIPs and help his batting average. His power will get limited by his future home ballpark which is one of the worst in the majors for lefty batters like Shaw. So while I think he has potential 30 HR pop, I think he settles in more in the 25ish range. Fantasy wise, since we know he's not going to run at all, we need an above-average Batting average for him to be fantasy relevant, and not just be a C.J. Cron type hitter. In terms of batting average, I do think there is some risk but he shouldn't be a big liability there or anything. His AAA K rate of 29.4% was very high, and it came with a very much below average 16.2% swinging-strike rate (MLB average is 9.5), but he also posted a very solid 16.9% K rate in AA last year with an 8.7% swinging-strike rate. So my guess is he didn't adjust super well to AAA last year and that led to the contact issues, and there's likely some contact gains to be had there in 2018. In the majors, I'm thinking he's going to be in the 25-26-27ish range for K's and that's going to put a strain on his average, and I think he'll likely be around a 260ish hitter. His ability to now hit lots of line-drives and hit the ball to all fields should help him support a quality BAPIP. Add it up, and a 260ish hitter with 25 HRs is solid, but it's just not a high enough upside for me to rank him among the top 100 and HMs.

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1 hour ago, Shortnphat said:

Any chance Vlad Jr could arrive much earlier than 2020? Don’t have resources off the top of my head but I’ve been seeing and reading he could possibly break camp 2019 with Toronto.

 

There's pretty much a 100 percent chance he's up no later than the middle of next year, probably earlier.

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7 hours ago, pbjfb said:

Who are the top 5 best stashes for 2018 redraft?

 

Acuna

Robles

Dahl

Tucker

Senzel

Bit of a tough call on the top 5 as you never quite know who is getting called and when (when is a big factor) but my top 5 right now in order would be:

Acuna
Calhoun
Senzel
Torres
Tucker

HM: Luiz Gohara, Victor Robles, and Eloy Jimenez

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5 hours ago, Shortnphat said:

Any chance Vlad Jr could arrive much earlier than 2020? Don’t have resources off the top of my head but I’ve been seeing and reading he could possibly break camp 2019 with Toronto.

I addressed this before but I messed up the ETA's on a few prospects, particularly at the top of the list including Vlad Jr, Eloy Jimenez,  and Kyle Tucker. I copied the first few names over from my mid-season top 100 list last year to get me started (up until Willie Calhoun) before I started writing them all out. I made sure to adjust the projections on everyone because to me, the rank and projections were the most crucial part of the process, but it looks like I missed changing a couple of the ETA's at the top and that I forgot to change Jorge Mateo's team to Oakland. I'm with you in saying that Vlad Jr is probably a 2019 ETA now, especially after the assignment to AA to start the year. With how well he and Bo Bichette are hitting too to start the year, I feel there's a non-zero chance that they make an appearance late this year too!

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7 hours ago, garlando said:

Bit of a tough call on the top 5 as you never quite know who is getting called and when (when is a big factor) but my top 5 right now in order would be:

Acuna
Calhoun
Senzel
Torres
Tucker

HM: Luiz Gohara, Victor Robles, and Eloy Jimenez

I'd throw Flaherty in there, assuming he qualifies for what we're talking about. Between Wacha and Wainwright, one of them is bound to continue to be subpar if not both of them. 

 

Not quite the sexy name that the above are, but could be very useful. 

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