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Ezekiel Elliott 2018 Outlook


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9 hours ago, timexsocialclub said:

Doom and gloom reigns supreme on these forums.

 

Angry Zeke is here to prove a point and finish #1.

 

It's not doom and gloom for someone who loved Zeke at 1-2-3 to say that based on the o-line issues he is now more of a 5-6. It's a tough call. Zeke is really good, but much of his greatness his rookie year came from having an elite o-line. 

Would be great to get some more news on the Boys o-line before I have to draft/give in my keeper lists. 

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8 hours ago, Jj66 said:

Any way you want to slice it this news about Fredrick is a huge blow to Dallas. 

 

I was considering Zeke at #1 a few weeks ago but with the poor play of Connor Williams, Zack Martin's knee injury and now this news with Fredrick I have him ranked behind Gurley, Bell, DJ, and Saquan. Hes on that next tier with Kamara and Fournette and tbh I may even take those two over him. 

 

This is quite the overreaction. In the preseason game against the Bengals last week, Rod Smith played with the starters (worth noting that this was with the o-line configuration the Cowboys will start the season with) and got 14 touches for 68 yards on 3 possessions! Zeke is going to get the ball 25-30 times a game. If Zeke is available to you, you are crazy to pass up that type of volume for Saquan, Kamara, and Fournette. If you take Gurley, Bell, and DJ, there's no argument from me. 

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This has to be watched very carefully.  Hopefully before your draft a timetable will appear on him (and also Zack Martin for that matter).

 

This will have an impact obviously, but I don't know how much of an impact this will have.  I mean....it's not like they're playing without a center at all, someone is stepping in.  Their blocking scheme will remain the same.  Even if the replacement is significantly worse (which is likely), it's not like every defensive lineman is now going to get into the backfield every play.  There will be many plays where he blocks adequately.  Let's say he screws up on 5 plays (which is a lot)....there's still another 15-20 carries that Zeke will get excellent blocking from his line.

 

Having said that, I would say that if you had Zeke tied with say DJ, this may move the needle to DJ, especially if it is a long absence.  I don't think I would take Saquon over him, but that's just me.  if someone believes the run blocking takes a nose dive without Frederick, then I can see dropping him to the second tier.

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9 minutes ago, kp96 said:

This has to be watched very carefully.  Hopefully before your draft a timetable will appear on him (and also Zack Martin for that matter).

 

This will have an impact obviously, but I don't know how much of an impact this will have.  I mean....it's not like they're playing without a center at all, someone is stepping in.  Their blocking scheme will remain the same.  Even if the replacement is significantly worse (which is likely), it's not like every defensive lineman is now going to get into the backfield every play.  There will be many plays where he blocks adequately.  Let's say he screws up on 5 plays (which is a lot)....there's still another 15-20 carries that Zeke will get excellent blocking from his line.

 

Having said that, I would say that if you had Zeke tied with say DJ, this may move the needle to DJ, especially if it is a long absence.  I don't think I would take Saquon over him, but that's just me.  if someone believes the run blocking takes a nose dive without Frederick, then I can see dropping him to the second tier.

 

I say don't overthink it. You'll overthink yourself right out of a championship. He's a beast and will put up big time numbers regardless. He's that good. If you have a shot at him don't hesitate.

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It's not good news at all obviously but he's still really good at football. His OL is great and helps create a perfect storm but it hasn't produced him. Plus, Garrett, Linehan, Dak, & Zeke himself have all talked about him being used more in the passing game all preseason...gotta get him in space, added new routes to his arsenal in the offseason...all the usual jazz. Less run game efficiency but more receptions at worst would be a wash.

 

I would be more concerned about a 2016 Rams-esque collapse. Garrett is not a good coach and never has been...if the wheels fall off, they could reeeallllyy fall off. Injuries everywhere, players mailing it in, etc. In that scenario, an uninspired Zeke plods along to a lackluster season but still a top 10-12 back based on volume alone.

 

I have him 3rd in all formats. JMO

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2 hours ago, LurkingFFPlayer said:

 

This is quite the overreaction. In the preseason game against the Bengals last week, Rod Smith played with the starters (worth noting that this was with the o-line configuration the Cowboys will start the season with) and got 14 touches for 68 yards on 3 possessions! Zeke is going to get the ball 25-30 times a game. If Zeke is available to you, you are crazy to pass up that type of volume for Saquan, Kamara, and Fournette. If you take Gurley, Bell, and DJ, there's no argument from me. 

Were they playing against the Bengals first team defense as well? If not that 68 on 14 could be skewed

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2 hours ago, LurkingFFPlayer said:

 

This is quite the overreaction. In the preseason game against the Bengals last week, Rod Smith played with the starters (worth noting that this was with the o-line configuration the Cowboys will start the season with) and got 14 touches for 68 yards on 3 possessions! Zeke is going to get the ball 25-30 times a game. If Zeke is available to you, you are crazy to pass up that type of volume for Saquan, Kamara, and Fournette. If you take Gurley, Bell, and DJ, there's no argument from me. 

 

I think trying to project the Oline's success off 3 possession in the second week of the preseason is an overreaction. 

 

The Cowboys oline now has two big question marks at C and LG. Zack Martin knee is currently hyperextended and is something that could linger on as the season progresses. 

 

Sure Zeke is set up for a huge workload but he's going to be extremely inefficient imo. 

 

Saquan and Fournette should get close to the same workload as Zeke. 

 

Saquan and Kamara play with much better surrounding talent. Both are better receivers and should receive more targets in the passing game. 

 

Kamara plays behind a much better oline (With Fredrick gone). 

 

Fournette and Kamara play for good teams which should set them up for alot more favorable game scripts.

 

Sure these guys might not out touch Zeke but they should be more efficent (Fournette less so). 

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12 hours ago, GriffeySwag said:

You're assuming the coaching staff is competent enough to get their best OL on the field.

 

This is the same coaching staff that watched Chaz Green make Adrian Clayborn look like Reggie White. They left him on an island and let him get destroyed over and over again.

 

Martin and Frederick injuries definitely push Zeke down a tier. That interior combo is how Zeke eats.

 

"This coaching staff sucks and its one of the worst adjustment coaching groups i've seen in many years. " -BlakeP

 

 

I'm right there with you here regarding this mediocre coaching staff, trust me.  Garrett and Co. are about as good at coaching as Garrett was a player. Vanilla, boring back up caliber that some how manages to sneak by with a job for many years longer then he deserves, lol.  BUT, that still  doesn't push Zeke down a tier for me.  I understand the concern but beyond my first tier of players, there are just as many questions or concerns to sort through i figure. No guarantee the OL's of a few other first rounders are all that great as well.   In significant PPR one could make the case for AB i guess, but if I'm in that top three draft spot, I'd still take Zeke #3 overall.   I believe in the volume and i believe in the talent.  This OL can still be a good group, obviously they need a bit more luck with health then they've started.  But i still can envision an above average group up front of Tyron, Williams, Looney, Martin, Collins compared to many other OL's people are trusting their FF RB situation too, IMO. 

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5 minutes ago, Jj66 said:

 

I think trying to project the Oline's success off 3 possession in the second week of the preseason is an overreaction. 

 

The Cowboys oline now has two big question marks at C and LG. Zack Martin knee is currently hyperextended and is something that could linger on as the season progresses. 

 

Sure Zeke is set up for a huge workload but he's going to be extremely inefficient imo. 

 

Saquan and Fournette should get close to the same workload as Zeke. 

 

Saquan and Kamara play with much better surrounding talent. Both are better receivers and should receive more targets in the passing game. 

 

Kamara plays behind a much better oline (With Fredrick gone). 

 

Fournette and Kamara play for good teams which should set them up for alot more favorable game scripts.

 

Sure these guys might not out touch Zeke but they should be more efficent (Fournette less so). 

 

If Zeke gets 120 yards and 2 TDs on 20 touches or 30 touches doesn't really impact his fantasy value for this year. The value in Zeke is that he doesn't need to be anywhere near as efficient as Kamara to post monster numbers. 

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12 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

If Zeke gets 120 yards and 2 TDs on 20 touches or 30 touches doesn't really impact his fantasy value for this year. The value in Zeke is that he doesn't need to be anywhere near as efficient as Kamara to post monster numbers. 

 

The loss of Fredrick does not only affect Zeke but the whole offense. A more inefficent run game means longer 3rd downs something Prescott struggles with converting. 

 

The trickle down effect of that will lead to less positive game scripts and less chance of Zeke having those monster games. 

 

Also it's not like Zeke will vastly out touch Barkley and Fournette. They should all be pretty close. Kamara projects to have the least amount of touches but has also surrounded by the best talent which should make you feel comfortable with his efficiency.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jj66 said:

 

The loss of Fredrick does not only affect Zeke but the whole offense. A more inefficent run game means longer 3rd downs something Prescott struggles with converting. 

 

The trickle down effect of that will lead to less positive game scripts and less chance of Zeke having those monster games. 

 

 

 

 

Of course. The point is that I don't care if other players are more efficient on 20 touches than Zeke is with 30. There isn't an efficiency category in fantasy. Leveon Bell last year managed a measly 4ypc and 7.7 yards per catch. But he was still a beast because he got a ton of touches. 

And Zeke put up great numbers last year, in limited games with a banged up Oline so he has proven that he can still be great without a great oline. 

All zeke owners want a a healthy Frederick back to make Zeke even greater, but he will still outproduce  just about every RB in fantasy this year.

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2 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Of course. The point is that I don't care if other players are more efficient on 20 touches than Zeke is with 30. There isn't an efficiency category in fantasy. Leveon Bell last year managed a measly 4ypc and 7.7 yards per catch. But he was still a beast because he got a ton of touches. 

And Zeke put up great numbers last year, in limited games with a banged up Oline so he has proven that he can still be great without a great oline. 

All zeke owners want a a healthy Frederick back to make Zeke even greater, but he will still outproduce  just about every RB in fantasy this year.

 

Your making it sound like Zeke will massively out touch Barkley and Fournette, he won't. They should all be pretty close to each other in touches. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Jj66 said:

Your making it sound like Zeke will massively out touch Barkley and Fournette, he won't.

 

You expect both of these OL's for Barkley and Fournette to be head and shoulders above the Dallas OL minus Frederick?

 

EDIT: I'm asking mostly bc i am truly looking for opinions on both OL's.....not necessarily trying to debate the touches between the 3. 

Edited by BlakeP42
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4 minutes ago, Jj66 said:

 

Your making it sound like Zeke will massively out touch Barkley and Fournette, he won't. They should all be pretty close to each other in touches. 

 

 

And you are making it seem as if Fournette is playing behind a great o-line in a great offense and Barkley hasn't been dinged up in camp and is a rookie playing on a team where Odell/Engram/Sheppard will need to get fed as well. 

 

I really  like Barkley and Fournette this year, but Elliot is still the man until proven otherwise. He did ok despite dealing o-line issues and off field distractions last year. I'd much rather Frederick and Martin be healthy, but there is a chance Martin plays week 1 and that Frederick could be back at some point this year. 

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6 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

And you are making it seem as if Fournette is playing behind a great o-line in a great offense and Barkley hasn't been dinged up in camp and is a rookie playing on a team where Odell/Engram/Sheppard will need to get fed as well. 

 

I really  like Barkley and Fournette this year, but Elliot is still the man until proven otherwise. He did ok despite dealing o-line issues and off field distractions last year. I'd much rather Frederick and Martin be healthy, but there is a chance Martin plays week 1 and that Frederick could be back at some point this year. 

i think the Giants OL could still be a mess.  Maybe improved, but still should have their struggles.  Hard to have confidence in any OL with a player like Flowers still starting in it.  He's down right awful.  Agree with you here, i can't see the Jags OL being all world either. Seems like they all have their warts to some degree.  Im still taking Zeke over both, IMO

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23 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

 

You expect both of these OL's for Barkley and Fournette to be head and shoulders above the Dallas OL minus Frederick?

 

EDIT: I'm asking mostly bc i am truly looking for opinions on both OL's.....not necessarily trying to debate the touches between the 3. 

 

Never said that. Dallas oline sans Fredrick is probably sandwiched between the Jags and Giants line.

 

21 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

And you are making it seem as if Fournette is playing behind a great o-line in a great offense and Barkley hasn't been dinged up in camp and is a rookie playing on a team where Odell/Engram/Sheppard will need to get fed as well. 

 

I really  like Barkley and Fournette this year, but Elliot is still the man until proven otherwise. He did ok despite dealing o-line issues and off field distractions last year. I'd much rather Frederick and Martin be healthy, but there is a chance Martin plays week 1 and that Frederick could be back at some point this year. 

 

Never once did I say or imply the Jags have a great offense or oline. They do have a good oline and an elite defense which will ensure Fournettes workload. 

 

Barkley being a rookie means pretty much zero to me. Best RB prospect since AP. 80% of rookie RBs drafted in the 1st round in the last 6 years have finished as an RB1. You don't take a RB 2nd overall unless you plan on feeding him. Saquan is a much better receiver than Zeke and has other high end talent surrounding him to keep defenses from keying in on him. As for his hammy hes already back at practise not worried about it all. 

 

While I have Zeke on the same tier as Fournette and Kamara now I would probably still take him over them. But I'm taking Saquan over Zeke without hesitation.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Jj66 said:

 

Never said that. Dallas oline sans Fredrick is probably sandwiched between the Jags and Giants line.

 

 

Never once did I say or imply the Jags have a great offense or oline. They do have a good oline and an elite defense which will ensure Fournettes workload. 

 

Barkley being a rookie means pretty much zero to me. Best RB prospect since AP. 80% of rookie RBs drafted in the 1st round in the last 6 years have finished as an RB1. You don't take a RB 2nd overall unless you plan on feeding him. Saquan is a much better receiver than Zeke and has other high end talent surrounding him to keep defenses from keying in on him. As for his hammy hes already back at practise not worried about it all. 

 

While I have Zeke on the same tier as Fournette and Kamara now I would probably still take him over them. But I'm taking Saquan over Zeke without hesitation.

 

 

fair enough, I'm well aware of the prospect that Saquon is and he looks to be a dang fine player.  Never said he wasn't.   I think you are simply trying to pump up Saquon, without hesitation as you say, without even considering their OL could be an issue. Which as i said, IMO, i believe it could.   I don't think Zeke is nearly as far down as a talent or a prospect compared to Saquon and more importantly, i've seen Zeke do work as  a #1 RB level in the NFL.  Something i've yet to see from Saquon.  So all in all, pick your risk as you will and good luck to ya i say.  All three of these RBs we are discussing are very very good players.  I don't doubt that.  But if you're going to question the Dallas OL and knock Zeke down a tier, yet somehow dismiss the Giants issues, i don't follow that line of thinking.   I especially don't view Saquon and his OL as a player or situation that I'm taking over Zeke without hesitation.  Saquon and that OL haven't proven anything yet.  

Edited by BlakeP42
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39 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

fair enough, I'm well aware of the prospect that Saquon is and he looks to be a dang fine player.  Never said he wasn't.   I think you are simply trying to pump up Saquon, without hesitation as you say, without even considering their OL could be an issue. Which as i said, IMO, i believe it could.   I don't think Zeke is nearly as far down as a talent or a prospect compared to Saquon and more importantly, i've seen Zeke do work as  a #1 RB level in the NFL.  Something i've yet to see from Saquon.  So all in all, pick your risk as you will and good luck to ya i say.  All three of these RBs we are discussing are very very good players.  I don't doubt that.  But if you're going to question the Dallas OL and knock Zeke down a tier, yet somehow dismiss the Giants issues, i don't follow that line of thinking.   I especially don't view Saquon and his OL as a player or situation that I'm taking over Zeke without hesitation.  Saquon and that OL haven't proven anything yet.  

 

I think we're on the same page for the most part.

 

I don't want to make it sound like Saquan doesn't have any concerns, he does. Of all the backs mentioned he does have the worst oline. However his surrounding talent will ensure defenses won't be able to consistently load up the box, something Zeke will have an upward battle against. Barkley is also a better receiver than Zeke and I think overall he's just the better player although Zeke is very, very good in his own right. 

 

Like I said before, I had Zeke in the running for the 1st pick just a few weeks ago. But with the question marks on the oline, especially when it comes to Fredrick, I feel Barkley is the safer back all things considered and offers 2016 DJ upside. 

 

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2 hours ago, Jj66 said:

 

I think trying to project the Oline's success off 3 possession in the second week of the preseason is an overreaction. 

 

The Cowboys oline now has two big question marks at C and LG. Zack Martin knee is currently hyperextended and is something that could linger on as the season progresses. 

 

Sure Zeke is set up for a huge workload but he's going to be extremely inefficient imo. 

 

Saquan and Fournette should get close to the same workload as Zeke. 

 

Saquan and Kamara play with much better surrounding talent. Both are better receivers and should receive more targets in the passing game. 

 

Kamara plays behind a much better oline (With Fredrick gone). 

 

Fournette and Kamara play for good teams which should set them up for alot more favorable game scripts.

 

Sure these guys might not out touch Zeke but they should be more efficent (Fournette less so). 

I hate that I’m about to defend the Cowboys, but here goes anyway.

 

13-3 two years ago, 9-7 last year even with everything they went through. This is NOT a bad team (oh, it hurts to say). I don’t like Garrett as a coach, but he’s average enough to produce 13-3 and 9-7 seasons, so at least I know it’s possible, I’ve seen it happen. I’ve seen Zeke have a huge year under him too.

 

Their offensive weapons aren’t great. Well they weren’t great last year either. The Witten loss stings for sure, but I think the Dez loss actually helps. They were trying to force the ball to him last year and he didn’t have it in him to catch it. This year Dak can spread it around. And who’s to say Gallup isn’t a stud? I loved him pre-draft, it sounds like he’s tearing up camp. Hurns, Beasley, Tavon, Williams... there’s enough to cobble together a passing game there, especially against teams that are selling out to stop the run. Just look at Dak’s numbers when Zeke plays, they’re great. I also think a mobile QB is gold for a RB.

 

I wouldn’t call the O-Line a concern necessarily, they should still be very good. It’s just not the trump card we thought it was. No longer can you draft Zeke and know he’s gonna be running behind a line like no other. But you know who else doesn’t? Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Leonard Fournette, Saquan Barkley, you get the idea. Almost no other RB runs behind a line like the one the Cowboys had with Frederick.

 

We have to take it on faith a little that he’ll catch more passes, just like everyone here I’ve heard the buzz about it out of camp, but until we see it, it’s just talk. I also think their defense will be greatly improved, so Zeke will get a touch of game script love from that too.

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Cowboys RG Zack Martin says there's "no doubt" he will be ready for Week 1.

Martin worked out in full pads on Thursday after being injured in last weekend's preseason game. His status has taken on increased importance with C Travis Frederick's 2018 in doubt.
 
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On the Golic and Wingo show this morning, they had Mark Schlereth on to talk about Guillain Barre syndrome as he's the only NFL player who has ever had the disease.

 

It didn't sound good.  He said he was able to play with it until he knew he had the disease, but he was ineffective.  He spoke about how it took about 17 months to be fully healthy, and during that time there were periods where he was essentially bedridden.  He went from 295 lbs. to 230 lbs in the offseason as he tried to recover.  He did say that there are new medical treatments since the time he had it, so there is some hope for a quicker recovery than he went through.

 

Bottom line is that we should expect Travis Frederick to be less effective, even if he plays, and there is a good chance he cannot play.  Of course all of this is secondary to hoping that Fredericks fully recovers.  About 85% of people recover fully, but there is the potential for permanent nerve damage.  Let's hope he is in the 85%, regardless of how long it takes to get there.  But in terms of fantasy, you need to expect that Zeke will take a hit here.  You don't go from a 4 time Pro Bowler to a journeyman and expect the same level of blocking.

 

 

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