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Mar/April Closer Thread 2018


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6 minutes ago, thefamily79 said:

Why wouldn't they use Holland?  If you want to argue that he needs to be babied a bit, cool but Holland will be the long term closer.

So these have been Holland's outings this year:

April 9th - Clusterf**k , couldnt locate a pitch, 4 straight walks , worst pitching we will see all year

April 11th - Alright / Bottom of the order (5/6/7) in the last inning of a losing game / NO SAVE

April 14th - 8th inning, up 6-1, Cincinatti top of the order (1/2/3) , Clean inning

April 17th - 8th inning, up 5-1 , bottom of the order (5/6/7) , nearly cost St louis the game, again outrageous pitching

April 19th - 7th inning,  losing 5-8, bottom of the order (8/9/1/2) 

April 22nd - 9th inning, up 9-2 , middle of the order (4/5/6) vs Cincinatti, Clean inning

April 24th - 9th inning, tied game, top of the order (9/1/2), clean inning

April 26th - 9th inning - tied game , bottom of the order (7/8/9/1) , clean inning

April 27th - 9th inning - 1st save opportunity , epic blow up ,lower part of the order (5/6/7)

 

so he has been in 5 high leverage situations and he has had 2 clean innings. I see no reason to see any change in this pattern. He is having some really incredible control issues. Unless you think that he is going to improve with the weather getting hotter, i dont see Holland being an effective closer any time soon. He may give you some saves this year but it will be at a big cost , possibly quite a few losses for the Cardinals in real life and in fantasy destruction of your ERA/WHIP. 

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Rodney  

Anyone have any thoughts on the Milwaukee situation?

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As an Angel fan I say grab Cam and stash him if you can. I was at the game last night and although Middleton was able to bounce back and keep the game tied, he didn’t look aggressive enough to me. I like his stuff but I don’t know if he posses that closer mentality. He wasn’t attacking the hitters which is why he got into trouble with the leadoff walk.  Cam has been pitching much better of late and missing some bats. His velocity is returning and last game I watched him pitch he seemed to have solid control. Blake Parker is out of the running. His confidence is just shot right now. I knew when they brought him up to face the top of the order he was gonna get punished. He was visibly upset after the Didi homerun, yelling on the mound but it was almost inevitable with how he’s been pitching lately that he was gonna cough one up.  

Just my opinion, but I do feel Cam regains the closer role or at least is given another opportunity soon to spell Middleton if he’s tired, and could keep it for good.

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1 hour ago, screaming_vultures said:

So these have been Holland's outings this year:

April 9th - Clusterf**k , couldnt locate a pitch, 4 straight walks , worst pitching we will see all year

April 11th - Alright / Bottom of the order (5/6/7) in the last inning of a losing game / NO SAVE

April 14th - 8th inning, up 6-1, Cincinatti top of the order (1/2/3) , Clean inning

April 17th - 8th inning, up 5-1 , bottom of the order (5/6/7) , nearly cost St louis the game, again outrageous pitching

April 19th - 7th inning,  losing 5-8, bottom of the order (8/9/1/2) 

April 22nd - 9th inning, up 9-2 , middle of the order (4/5/6) vs Cincinatti, Clean inning

April 24th - 9th inning, tied game, top of the order (9/1/2), clean inning

April 26th - 9th inning - tied game , bottom of the order (7/8/9/1) , clean inning

April 27th - 9th inning - 1st save opportunity , epic blow up ,lower part of the order (5/6/7)

 

so he has been in 5 high leverage situations and he has had 2 clean innings. I see no reason to see any change in this pattern. He is having some really incredible control issues. Unless you think that he is going to improve with the weather getting hotter, i dont see Holland being an effective closer any time soon. He may give you some saves this year but it will be at a big cost , possibly quite a few losses for the Cardinals in real life and in fantasy destruction of your ERA/WHIP. 

 

If Holland blows another save he should be pulled from the role. 

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1 hour ago, thefamily79 said:

I grant you he's been inconsistent.  It's disappointing but not surprising considering when Holland signed.

This is true, but there’s the fantasy and real-life side to this, which I think are actually similar. 

 

For myself, my pitching corps is not good enough to have ratios blown up by Holland every other week or so.

 

Similarly, the Cardinals are not a good enough team to just let an out-of-shape “closer” try to figure things out. This is a team that’s going to either be in a tight race for the NLC, or a tight race for a WC. They can’t afford to be dropping close games like this. And if they’re as remotely intelligent as I think they are, they won’t keep rolling him out there to blow games. Norris seems like the guy for higher leverage situations right now.

 

Maybe he gets the “low-leverage saves” or something, but I just can’t imagine that he’s going to be the indisputable closer for long. 

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The only thing that confuses me about the anti holland logic is that people are saying that Holland issues are static and won’t improve. The cardinals and we all recognize or should recognize that he’s likely to keep improving into may with how late he signed. 

 

He’d normally have had 15 or 20 outings in spring normally , then a few to tune up in regular season before we’d argue that he has stabilized and get concerned about a skill trend. We are halfway there or less and people are sticking a fork in him. Patience is the play for real life and fantasy.

 

short term I think they should go CBC for a little bit to take some heat off. 

 

I watched the outing yesterday and it was bad but the double play ball was routine AND a lot of center fielders catch the ball that Pham couldn’t get to for the double. We could easily be having a very different conversation. It’s not true that he’s being obliterated every time out. He was dominant Thursday and got a bit unlucky last night. It’s a long season.

 

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RE: Twins 

 

 

I know for years Rodney has been rooted against for the save chasers (myself included). I have never owned Rodney in over 10 years of fantasy, which I know is only 1/4th of his career. Rodney has had some terrible runs at multiple stops, very long leashes throughout the way, and seems he will never go away. I know Addison would most likely be the next in line, arguably or not, I would guess he is at least the betting favorite for next-in-line. 

 

I am stashing a Twins back up plan. But his name is Ryan Pressly. I know he is not a new name to this thread, I have seen him mentioned a handful of times. What I did find interesting was some of the underlining numbers. Some of the most dominant pitchers (regardless of role) this season have been Hader, Ottavino, and Edwin Diaz. Hust to name a couple. When I checked the xwOBA (Quality of contact), XSLG (slugging), and xBA (batting average allowed), Pressly was in the top 5 in all of those. Not surprisingly.. Hader, Ottavino, Diaz were consistent leaders in those too. 

 

Only problem with this theory, Reed hasn't been too shabby either. I think both are eventually much better options for the Twins, regardless of contract details or any other factor. They are trying to compete and that pressure will mount up here this year. I think Reed is good enough too given the chance, but between what I have watched with my own eyes, and the numbers I've seen, I am hitching my wagon to the hope of cream rising to the top. 

 

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=pitcher&year=2018&position=&team=&min=50

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4 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:

RE: Twins

 

Not a bad call as Pressly does have good stuff, but Reed is the clear setup man and potential successor to Rodney.  I'm not saying Pressly isn't a great mid-RP but you should go into it knowing you're looking at a season of potentially good ratios and a vulture W/SV or two, not 15+ saves. 

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4 minutes ago, I Miss Matt Cain said:

 

 

Not a bad call as Pressly does have good stuff, but Reed is the clear setup man and potential successor to Rodney.  I'm not saying Pressly isn't a great mid-RP but you should go into it knowing you're looking at a season of potentially good ratios and a vulture W/SV or two, not 15+ saves. 

 

Yeah I hear you. I wasn't necessarily predicting Pressly is next or going to for sure get the gig. I understand what sort of stats he would end up with if he didn't get the closing gig. 

 

I was more so just thinking I want to go with the theory that I want the best pitcher in the pen. I know todays game sometimes loves to leave their best in flexible roles (Hader, Bradley). But I don't see Pressly really being one of those types. So that just leaves him as being a guy that can actually take the job and run with it. Not get the musical chairs going once an hopeful move is made.

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1 hour ago, cyberer said:

The only thing that confuses me about the anti holland logic is that people are saying that Holland issues are static and won’t improve. The cardinals and we all recognize or should recognize that he’s likely to keep improving into may with how late he signed. 

 

He’d normally have had 15 or 20 outings in spring normally , then a few to tune up in regular season before we’d argue that he has stabilized and get concerned about a skill trend. We are halfway there or less and people are sticking a fork in him. Patience is the play for real life and fantasy.

 

short term I think they should go CBC for a little bit to take some heat off. 

 

I watched the outing yesterday and it was bad but the double play ball was routine AND a lot of center fielders catch the ball that Pham couldn’t get to for the double. We could easily be having a very different conversation. It’s not true that he’s being obliterated every time out. He was dominant Thursday and got a bit unlucky last night. It’s a long season.

 

Not true. Unless we're counting "outings" within team practices or something.

 

His yearly games in Spring Training are in order: 7, 11, 10, 10, 10 and 7 games.

 

Yearly IP for those games 7, 11.2, 9.1, 10.0, 9.0 and 6.1.

 

He's now had 9 games and 6.1 IP. I guess you could argue that his "Spring Training" has just now ended, but the "Spring" argument is beginning to wear a little thin. From a fantasy perspective, whether or not you have room to hold him is completely contextual. But from an IRL, trying to be in contention standpoint, I just don't see how the Cardinals can allow him to have any more "Spring Training" in save situations when their race is so tight.

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2 hours ago, Philoumenos said:

This is true, but there’s the fantasy and real-life side to this, which I think are actually similar. 

 

For myself, my pitching corps is not good enough to have ratios blown up by Holland every other week or so.

 

Similarly, the Cardinals are not a good enough team to just let an out-of-shape “closer” try to figure things out. This is a team that’s going to either be in a tight race for the NLC, or a tight race for a WC. They can’t afford to be dropping close games like this. And if they’re as remotely intelligent as I think they are, they won’t keep rolling him out there to blow games. Norris seems like the guy for higher leverage situations right now.

 

Maybe he gets the “low-leverage saves” or something, but I just can’t imagine that he’s going to be the indisputable closer for long. 

i agree with most of what you are saying, except that they paid 14 million for a closer in April. That is not remotely intelligent. Now the question is when they will stop the bleeding. Right now, for all intent and purposes they will continue with Holland. 

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6 minutes ago, screaming_vultures said:

i agree with most of what you are saying, except that they paid 14 million for a closer in April. That is not remotely intelligent. Now the question is when they will stop the bleeding. Right now, for all intent and purposes they will continue with Holland. 

I didn’t really get it at the time considering they already had added Leone, Gregerson and Bud “Discount Holland” Norris. 

 

As an STL fan, I’m actually a little more annoyed at the loss of the draft pick than the money spent. 

 

Regardless, the thing with Holland isn’t really his material cost anyways. The more important thing for the team is how he’s costing them games. I know this is true of a lot of teams, but if you took their last two seasons and changed a few close losses into wins, they would have made the playoffs. It’s weird that the STL FO looked at their team and said “We can afford to let a guy do his Spring Training during the middle of our season.” 

 

I just can’t imagine that will continue any longer if his next week isn’t good. 

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All of a sudden, Texas can actually win.  Kela gets a 1 out save, giving him saves in 3 games in a row.

 

So much for any preseason concern about them using him multiple days in a row.

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4 hours ago, cyberer said:

The only thing that confuses me about the anti holland logic is that people are saying that Holland issues are static and won’t improve. The cardinals and we all recognize or should recognize that he’s likely to keep improving into may with how late he signed. 

 

He’d normally have had 15 or 20 outings in spring normally , then a few to tune up in regular season before we’d argue that he has stabilized and get concerned about a skill trend. We are halfway there or less and people are sticking a fork in him. Patience is the play for real life and fantasy.

 

short term I think they should go CBC for a little bit to take some heat off. 

 

I watched the outing yesterday and it was bad but the double play ball was routine AND a lot of center fielders catch the ball that Pham couldn’t get to for the double. We could easily be having a very different conversation. It’s not true that he’s being obliterated every time out. He was dominant Thursday and got a bit unlucky last night. It’s a long season.

 

 

I agree the defense should have been better last night.   But is the defense really going to improve.

 

Having said that,  the 9th inning of a MLB game with the lead is not the place to work on your issues and get your stuff back up to par.  

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25 minutes ago, kittenmittons said:

Box got out of it... Close one, a single would have lost it. 

 

Michael Taylor bailed him out by swinging at the first pitch after he had just walked Kendrick and was gassed.  His velocity dropped over the course of the outing from 93 to 90.

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5 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Michael Taylor bailed him out by swinging at the first pitch after he had just walked Kendrick and was gassed.  His velocity dropped over the course of the outing from 93 to 90.

 

Also, the groundball to end it was a nice play by Ahmed. 

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