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Mar/April Closer Thread 2018


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Rodney  

Anyone have any thoughts on the Milwaukee situation?

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2 hours ago, JFS179 said:

 

CAREER NUMBERS.  Don't keep spouting examples from 20 games, claiming it's a small sample on the one hand, and completely ignoring the flashing red light on the other that says he kinda sucks in pressure situations over the course of his career, i.e., not the small sample size.  94 IP of sucking in Save Situations.

 

This isn't rocket science.  I don't really know what else to say.  

 

Also - what the hell does the bolded mean?  Don't rely on data?  Don't rely on the stats?  Don't rely on facts?

 

 

Don't count games from 6 years ago and prior.   Count his stats from 2012 and highlight last year, since that was most recent.   His 61 innings, from last year are more relevant than his 350 innings prior to 2012.   His 4, ninth inning save op from last year, are too few a sample It's just common sense

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2 hours ago, JFS179 said:

 

CAREER NUMBERS.  Don't keep spouting examples from 20 games, claiming it's a small sample on the one hand, and completely ignoring the flashing red light on the other that says he kinda sucks in pressure situations over the course of his career, i.e., not the small sample size.  94 IP of sucking in Save Situations.

 

This isn't rocket science.  I don't really know what else to say.  

 

Also - what the hell does the bolded mean?  Don't rely on data?  Don't rely on the stats?  Don't rely on facts?

 

 

It means I did the research myself.   I already mentioned 19 games.   So your data said 20?   OUCH.   I was wrong.  LOL.   You do realize HOLD chances are the same as SAVE chance in your data, right?   You asked where I got my 4 outings from, and I told you.   I went through his game log and he had four 9th inning save ops.  3 he started the 9th and one he came in with 2 out. I even mentioned the dates.    I feel like I'm repeating myself.   3 or 4 is a far too small sample size.   And stats from 6-10 years ago are irrelevant

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2 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

This post is lame.  Of course your league doesn't count FIP.  But, don't knock people for bringing advanced metrics to the table in an effort to project results.  That's what fantasy baseball is about, or do you just draft based off of last year's stats?

 

 

my point is he is 35 years old.   His numbers are his numbers. He has a 6 year track record of solid production.   advanced metrics mean nothing to players in their mid 30's.  IMO

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2 hours ago, street sharks said:

We know Albers was great last year but we also know he was pretty awful in save opps. It's pretty apparent who didn't own Albers at that point in the season because they keep mentioning how great he was last season (he was), but fail to mention that he would just crumbled when put into the 9th with the game on the line. 

 

I would also like to highlight that MATT ALBERS ONLY HAS 2 CAREER SAVES (in god knows how many opps)

 

 

I owned Treinen and Kelley, so I'm well aware of what Albers did. That whole Nat pen was a volatile situation.  He had one save op blowup and, and few bad non save op save bad outings. So,  Dusty took him out of the roll

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2 hours ago, Topgun said:

Lets just be honest, your guess, is just a guess, you don't know, we don't know. 

 

It's OK to say, you don't know.

 

 

I don't know, LOL.   As much as I have defended Albers, I still give a slight nod to Barnes.   Albers seems to be getting unfair criticism, so I am defending his stats from last year

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This is just arguing for the sake of trying to win the argument now. Everyone knows the facts and has their own opinion of Albers. Counsell has said it's a "committee", which may or may not mean saves for Albers. 

 

If you think he's a decent pitcher and will get some save opps then go ahead and add. If you think he's a dumpster fire then don't. 

 

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5 hours ago, JFS179 said:

 

I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from, but these numbers from Baseball Reference paint a different picture than the one you're trying to illustrate.

 

2017

3.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in Save Situations

0.84 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in Non-Save Situations

 

For his career, Albers has a 6.01 ERA in Save Situations and a 3.24 ERA in Non-Save Situations.  His WHIP in Save Situations is 1.62 vs. 1.31 in Non-Save Situations.  I get that relievers have extremely small sample sizes year-to-year, but those career numbers were earned over 94+ IP in Save Situations and 457.2 IP in Non-Save Situations.

 

That's not to suggest that the 3.50 ERA and the 1.00 WHIP from 2017 are necessarily awful, but they're worse than his numbers as a set-up man, a trend that's very clearly held for his entire career.  He may still get the role, and he's been pitching the 8th and had a great year last year, but his track record doesn't suggest we should have a lot of confidence he'll succeed if he's given a shot.

 

I'll continue to roster Barnes with my trigger finger ready on Jeffress.

Early career Albers was a Sinker/Curve guy with could throw mid-90's, but not very good control or command.

 

This current version of Albers has only be observed in 2011 and 2017 so far. I.E. healthy Velo combined  with Primary Slider/ditched Curve. (He ditched curve in 2015/2016, but didn't have healthy velo)

 

I'm not saying he still wont struggle, but as of now I trust him more than Jeffress and his career 1.40 WHIP,  declining peripherals and not throwing Mid 90s yet (He's still sitting at 92)

Edited by Slatykamora
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I think the data on Albers, as useless as it may seem to some, has been covered. At this point it's time to pick your horse and hope for the best. We're all guessing until something else significant happens. 

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4 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

I think the data on Albers, as useless as it may seem to some, has been covered. At this point it's time to pick your horse and hope for the best. We're all guessing until something else significant happens. 

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Yeah as mentioned earlier, Barnes pitched two innings yesterday so he may get the night off.  But I wouldn’t take that as a sign that he won’t be getting his chances. 

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