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Mar/April Closer Thread 2018


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23 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

No more Ausmus. Gardy now.  And he tends to be old school

 

Apparently too late to edit my post, but thanks for pointing that out - didn't realize Ausmus was out.  

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Rodney  

Anyone have any thoughts on the Milwaukee situation?

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1 minute ago, parrothead said:

guys like K Rod, Fern Rodney, etc those guys are either almost gonna close or your gonna waive them.  The mentality and dynamic of certain guys especially closers is just a little bit different and as a manager, you have to know that going in.  So how he handles a guy like Green who has never been a closer vs how he handles K Rod are apples and oranges.  You could very well be right, he could be that guy who gives a longer leash and the Green scenario will tell us more than K Rod, in that situation your kind of stuck

 

It's a little different I'll agree, but at this point Greene is the closer, and for him to lose that role means he's probably putting up a 4-5+ ERA and bad WHIP.  That's not a guy you're simply going to drop down to the 8th inning, that's a guy that's so bad on a consistent basis that he's going to be pitching mop up duty for the next couple months.  The main difference is Greene could work his way back up over time and be a valuable bullpen piece in future years, but for this year and his immediate value it still makes him worth almost nothing.

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Guys like K-Rod, Joe Nathan, Heath Bell, Rodney, get a lengthy amount of rope because they're all-timers (or at least all-stars who have lengthy experience).  The manager will usually go out on a limb for them irregardless of whom the manager is.  A guy like Greene who hasn't even had a year of closing experience isn't going to receive the same benefit.  

 

Now I believe it's not so much that teams will pay more for a closer as much as they would paying a little bit more for a guy who has proven that he can handle high leverage situations.  There's no higher leverage than the end game, especially in the playoffs or the end of the season.  Some guys just can't handle it (cough Ken Giles cough) So I don't think teams are tripping over themselves to overpay just because a guy is closing, but a player who has proven he can pitch well in high leverage will get a little bump.   

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Re: Shane Greene

He's blown his last two save opportunities. He’s also a former SP who last year was sort of thrown into the fire out of necessity. He was like the 4th option. 

I would not be surprised if he blew his next save that they might go to Jimenez. That would be 3 in a row. And while you and I know the Tigers aren’t going anywhere, they’re actually playing well, floating around .500 and just 2.5 back from Cleveland (early I know, lol) and I wouldn’t be shocked if Gardenhire put Jimenez in. 

Considering bullpen usage around the league, Greene would have at least as much value, if not more, if he shows to be an effective multi-inning guy. 

Of course if Greene nails his next save or two, I don’t think anything happens. But if Greene gets in trouble again, I’d run to grab Jimenez. 

Just my $0.02

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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Not a Tigers fan, and I only own one share of Greene (somewhat reluctantly), but the advanced stats do show he's been a tick unlucky.  He's got a 28.2% K-rate and a 7.7% BB-rate, both of which are very strong.  His LOB% is quite low at only 60.3%, and his BABIP is a tick inflated at .348.  He's posting a 61.5% first pitch strike rate and a solid SWSTK of 10.5%.  All that adds up to a 3.50 FIP, a 3.59 xFIP, and a 2.90 SIERA.

 

Jimenez, meanwhile, has had nearly the opposite luck of Greene.  His first pitch strike rate (61.5%) and SWSTK (10.9%) both mirror Greene's, and his K-rate of 20.5% and BB-rate of 7.7% also mirror Greene's, but Jimenez has a.214 BABIP and an 88.9% LOB%.  Thus Jimenez's disparity between his flawless 0.00 ERA and his 2.43 FIP, 5.28 xFIP, and 4.58 SIERA.

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11 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Not a Tigers fan, and I only own one share of Greene (somewhat reluctantly), but the advanced stats do show he's been a tick unlucky.  He's got a 28.2% K-rate and a 7.7% BB-rate, both of which are very strong.  His LOB% is quite low at only 60.3%, and his BABIP is a tick inflated at .348.  He's posting a 61.5% first pitch strike rate and a solid SWSTK of 10.5%.  All that adds up to a 3.50 FIP, a 3.59 xFIP, and a 2.90 SIERA.

 

Jimenez, meanwhile, has had nearly the opposite luck of Greene.  His first pitch strike rate (61.5%) and SWSTK (10.9%) both mirror Greene's, and his K-rate of 20.5% and BB-rate of 7.7% also mirror Greene's, but Jimenez has a.214 BABIP and an 88.9% LOB%.  Thus Jimenez's disparity between his flawless 0.00 ERA and his 2.43 FIP, 5.28 xFIP, and 4.58 SIERA.

 

wheres the exit vel son? that may tell the story on babip

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2 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Now I believe it's not so much that teams will pay more for a closer as much as they would paying a little bit more for a guy who has proven that he can handle high leverage situations.  There's no higher leverage than the end game, especially in the playoffs or the end of the season.  Some guys just can't handle it (cough Ken Giles cough). 

 

Indeed.

 

OT but I've always said there's no such thing as a "set-up guy that can't close". But I've witnessed plenty of closers who can't close (in big spots).

 

Some other luminaries who I know can't, or couldn't, take the heat: Neftali Feliz, Joe Nathan, Drew Storen, Jeurys Familia...

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3 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Indeed.

 

OT but I've always said there's no such thing as a "set-up guy that can't close". But I've witnessed plenty of closers who can't close (in big spots).

 

Some other luminaries who I know can't, or couldn't, take the heat: Neftali Feliz, Joe Nathan, Drew Storen, Jeurys Familia...

Nathan is a 6 time All-Star who has 377 career saves. Just 2 years ago Familia led the league in saves with 51.

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4 hours ago, cyberer said:

 

Unfortunately the Norris contingent represent seemingly 80% of the people that post on here regularly... 

 

I think Norris was just a good hedge that people were jumping on.  A week ago,  there was no telling when Holland would pitch well again.  For all we knew he would continue to struggle with command, not gain velocity back, etc.

 

Meanwhile, Norris hasn't run away with the job by pitching lights out

 

It looked like Norris had a decent (40%) shot of keeping the role for an extended period.  I'd put that down to 10% after what we've seen since then from both Norris and Holland.

 

 

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2 hours ago, JFS179 said:

Not a Tigers fan, and I only own one share of Greene (somewhat reluctantly), but the advanced stats do show he's been a tick unlucky.  He's got a 28.2% K-rate and a 7.7% BB-rate, both of which are very strong.  His LOB% is quite low at only 60.3%, and his BABIP is a tick inflated at .348.  He's posting a 61.5% first pitch strike rate and a solid SWSTK of 10.5%.  All that adds up to a 3.50 FIP, a 3.59 xFIP, and a 2.90 SIERA.

 

Jimenez, meanwhile, has had nearly the opposite luck of Greene.  His first pitch strike rate (61.5%) and SWSTK (10.9%) both mirror Greene's, and his K-rate of 20.5% and BB-rate of 7.7% also mirror Greene's, but Jimenez has a.214 BABIP and an 88.9% LOB%.  Thus Jimenez's disparity between his flawless 0.00 ERA and his 2.43 FIP, 5.28 xFIP, and 4.58 SIERA.

Now tell me if you think Ron Gardenhire knows what any of this means ?

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2 minutes ago, kittenmittons said:

 

I think Norris was just a good hedge that people were jumping on.  A week ago,  there was no telling when Holland would pitch well again.  For all we knew he would continue to struggle with command, not gain velocity back, etc.

 

Meanwhile, Norris hasn't run away with the job by pitching lights out

 

It looked like Norris had a decent (40%) shot of keeping the role for an extended period.  I'd put that down to 10% after what we've seen since then from both Norris and Holland.

 

 

How does Reyes fit into the mix?  Seemed like there was some consensus among the fantasy professional "talking" community that a lot of them were predicting that Reyes would be Cards closer by year end.   STL has had a history of doing that, where they convert guys or have top rated starting prospects begin in the pen.  Wainwright did it, Rosenthal was converted,

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One thread that would be interesting/depressing, and maybe it could go here, maybe its own "Closers getting work" thread, but just seems that these outings when closers pitch in non save or a non-tied game, more times that not turns out to be an ineffective outing, or in the case of Knebel, one that cost him what a month?  

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Norris imploded in pretty spectacular fashion as the Angels closer last year after a strong start with double digit saves so I’m sure the Cards are priming Holland to step in at the first hint of a similar meltdown, but I doubt they’ll mess with things until that actually happens, since even at his best this is not the same Holland from 4-5 years ago.

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I have to ask this, because it's puzzled me: Why do ex-catchers have such an affinity for Bud Norris?

 

Seriously, Scioscia installed Norris -- with no track record to speak of -- as the closer pretty quickly with seemingly little explanation when he had plenty of other qualified relievers to choose from.

 

Now Matheny is basically doing the same thing -- even after Norris ended his stint as the Halos closer on a sour note by imploding in the role.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'll gladly take the saves, but I don't get it.

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23 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

Norris imploded in pretty spectacular fashion as the Angels closer last year after a strong start with double digit saves so I’m sure the Cards are priming Holland to step in at the first hint of a similar meltdown, but I doubt they’ll mess with things until that actually happens, since even at his best this is not the same Holland from 4-5 years ago.

 

Except matheny explicitly said they would...

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30 minutes ago, parrothead said:

How does Reyes fit into the mix?  Seemed like there was some consensus among the fantasy professional "talking" community that a lot of them were predicting that Reyes would be Cards closer by year end.   STL has had a history of doing that, where they convert guys or have top rated starting prospects begin in the pen.  Wainwright did it, Rosenthal was converted,

 

Reyes doesn't factor in - I saw an update this week that he's coming back as a starter.  Period.

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

How does Reyes fit into the mix?  Seemed like there was some consensus among the fantasy professional "talking" community that a lot of them were predicting that Reyes would be Cards closer by year end.   STL has had a history of doing that, where they convert guys or have top rated starting prospects begin in the pen.  Wainwright did it, Rosenthal was converted,

I don't know, he's coming back from TJ so it's up in the air.  I bet they just stash him in AAA. They already have Hicks there too who may be in line for saves before Reyes. 

 

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2 hours ago, Weekday Warrior said:

Norris imploded in pretty spectacular fashion as the Angels closer last year after a strong start with double digit saves so I’m sure the Cards are priming Holland to step in at the first hint of a similar meltdown, but I doubt they’ll mess with things until that actually happens, since even at his best this is not the same Holland from 4-5 years ago.

 

This isn't really accurate. It was discussed in more detail several pages back, but Norris didn't "meltdown", he had 4 bad outings in a 2 week span on late July / early August after he came back off the DL from his knee injury. Outside of those 4 outings his ERA was 2-something with a WHIP around 1. 

 

Saying / implying his whole second half was a disaster is kind of misleading. 

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54 minutes ago, kittenmittons said:

I don't know, he's coming back from TJ so it's up in the air.  I bet they just stash him in AAA. They already have Hicks there too who may be in line for saves before Reyes. 

 

 

Just to add to what was written above, the Cards absolutely plan to use Reyes as a starter.  He is not in the closer conversation.

 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Just to add to what was written above, the Cards absolutely plan to use Reyes as a starter.  He is not in the closer conversation.

 

 

 

 

Agreed, he's too good not to start, and apparently they've said as much.

 

He'll probably wait in AAA pitching through the potential post-TJ command issues and get his feel back...  There is a line up of guys waiting for their chance to crack that St. Louis rotation.

 

 

 

 

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