Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Jurickson Profar 2018 Outlook


Fantasy Dork

Recommended Posts

  • tonycpsu changed the title to Jurickson Profar 2018 Outlook
  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 163
  • Created
  • Last Reply

looks like Profar is set to get regular playing time with the Rangers. is he worth an add??

 

 

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=35572

 

Quote

Waiver Wire Guidelines: With A Clear Path To Playing Time, Is Jurickson Profar A Must Add?

 

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

First it was Rougned Odor hitting the DL with a strained hamstring, which may cost him three weeks of action.  Now has come the news that Elvis Andrus has fractured his elbow, leaving him sidelined indefinitely.  With the middle of the infield devastated by injuries, that leaves once top prospect Jurickson Profar to step into a regular role (and one he could keep for a long time).

It’s been a slow start for Profar, who is hitting .167 even after going 2-5 with 1 RBI last night.  Considering his injury history and lack of production in the Majors (.227 with 12 HR and 6 SB over 749 PA), it would be easy to simply write him off and assume he’s not going to be able to produce.

It has been a long road, but let’s not forget he’s not far removed from being considered a can’t miss prospect.  Prior to the 2013 season John Sickels of Minor League Ball had described Profar by saying:

Best position prospect in baseball, with outstanding mix of on-base ability, moderate power, speed, excellent defense, superior makeup, and youth.

It’s an incredibly small sample size, but Profar has continued to display that strong approach this season:

  • O-Swing% – 5.9%
  • SwStr% – 17.8%

That’s been the story of his career (6.4% SwStr%, 26.4% O-Swing%).  He also showed off his general upside at Triple-A last season, when he hit .287 with 7 HR and 5 SB over 383 PA.  Those may not seem appealing, but he added 25 doubles.  Still just 25-years old it’s easy to envision him tapping into the power playing in Texas (think 15 HR with regular playing time, with the potential for even a little bit more).

He may not be an elite stolen base option, but would 10 SB hitting near the top of the Texas lineup (he was the #2 hitter yesterday) be a stretch?

It’s easy to be down on Profar, who has gone through numerous starts and stops throughout his career.  The talent is still there, and with the injuries now the opportunity is as well.  Getting regular AB could allow him to once again put things together, leaving a potential .270/15/10 option ripe for the taking (and he looks even more attractive in OBP formats, where he could post an elevated walk rate).

Waiver Wire Guidelines:

  • 10 Team Leagues – Worth Considering
  • 12 Team Leagues – Must Add
  • 14+ Team Leagues – Must Add
  • AL-Only Leagues – Must Add
  • Keeper Leagues – Must Add

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I instantly thought of this guy right away when I watched the Elvis injury live. I never saw #1 prospect in baseball when they had him there, but I don’t even really see a fantasy contributor now either. I do like some of the makeup he has at the plate and I can see the whole “much better real life player than fantasy”. But for me in today’s game, if they aren’t hitting for at least some power or running at a decent clip, I don’t see a ton of reason to roster. I hope he comes through and proves me wrong,  but I don’t see a ton of real upside. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

In regards to the portion that SFNK quoted, I don't see him as a must-add in 12 nor 14 team leagues. I'm in both and am content to watch him but leave him sitting there on the wire. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Profar was the #1 prospect in 2013 according to Baseball America.

 

Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein (formerly Baseball Prospectus, now WSC Houston Astros) were both extremely high on him, with Law thinking he'd be a superstar.(https://www.lonestarball.com/2013/12/20/5231484/keith-law-thinks-jurickson-profar-will-be-a-superstar)

 

"Profar has the ultimate mark of an elite prospect. He keeps improving even as he is challenged with better competition. In this case, the Rangers jumped the 19-year-old two levels to Double-A, where he has continued to hit for average, get on base, make contact, show surprising power for his size, hit from both sides of the plate and play plus defense. There's no real hole in his game, and he looks as if he'll be more than ready for the majors before he turns 21 -- another mark of a potential superstar -- if the Rangers can create a spot for him."

 

In a way, what Ozzie Albies is doing right now reminds me of what Profar should have been at his age - but maybe with better plate discipline.

 

He spent all of 2014 and 2015 on the DL and went through shoulder surgery.  

 

I was so excited about this kid and followed him very closely.  He seemed like the can't-miss prospect with no holes in his scouting report.

 

He's only 25...

Link to post
Share on other sites

If he’s available in a dynasty league I feel like he’s a must add right now as it’s probably his last chance to really live up to any of the hype he’s had in the past.

 

The two things he always did best were play defense and have a very patient approach with great contact skills.  After his injuries he lost that approach and everything fell with it.  He regained it all in the minors last year though(43k:33b .383 obp) and is showing it again now with his 7bb:3k start to the season and .355obp.  If he can keep that going the Rangers are gonna be forced to keep him on the field as he’s a plus defender as well.  With his build and athleticism he always projected as a 15-20hr/10-15sb guy and even if he stays at the 15/10 range for now I don’t see why he couldn’t develop in a 20+ hr/10+sb with high avg/obp going forward.  Remember, he’s still just 25.  If you looked at his minor league numbers only as if he was debuting today he’d be a must add everywhere.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tootallball said:

Andrus fractured his elbow too so he should get plenty of opportunities if he continues to hit. 

 

Not that it matters if he doesn’t start hitting but already he’s on his way to be eligible everywhere but 1B and C

 

2B: 5 games

SS: 2 games

3B: 3 games

 

started with OF from last year, will be starting at SS from now on, just gotta hope he gets the hot corner 2 more times randomly

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jwblue said:

As an Andrus owner I knew I was in trouble when I saw this thread getting activity.

 

originally Profar was getting playing time because Odor was hurt.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Like Cordero for the Padres, Profar is at least a solid dice role for no cost.  I picked him up today just to see if finally getting extended playing time will allow him to even come close to his potential.

 

I'm not starting him tomorrow against Cole, but still, I see nothing wrong with anyone taking a flier on him and seeing what regular playing time amounts to this time around with him.

Link to post
Share on other sites

He's having some pretty nice at-bats.  Even thought he struck out twice against Cole last night, he was not overmatched in them and it was more Cole than him chasing bad pitches or anything.  Two multi-hit games in his last 3 now after today, and he still has more Walks than K's.

 

I'm at least intrigued after scooping him up a couple of days ago, and with multi-position eligibility here or coming (depending on where you play).

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/12/2018 at 8:59 AM, BackyardBaseball said:

If he’s available in a dynasty league I feel like he’s a must add right now as it’s probably his last chance to really live up to any of the hype he’s had in the past.

 

The two things he always did best were play defense and have a very patient approach with great contact skills.  After his injuries he lost that approach and everything fell with it.  He regained it all in the minors last year though(43k:33b .383 obp) and is showing it again now with his 7bb:3k start to the season and .355obp.  If he can keep that going the Rangers are gonna be forced to keep him on the field as he’s a plus defender as well.  With his build and athleticism he always projected as a 15-20hr/10-15sb guy and even if he stays at the 15/10 range for now I don’t see why he couldn’t develop in a 20+ hr/10+sb with high avg/obp going forward.  Remember, he’s still just 25.  If you looked at his minor league numbers only as if he was debuting today he’d be a must add everywhere.

 

Agreed. 

 

Also, his greatest asset was his baseball smarts and feel for the game,  not his raw physical talent.   The time off likely affected that as much as anything.  And that intuition allows what physical tools he has to play up higher than the raw skills grade. 

 

I'm happy for the kid that he's in a position now to establish himself as a big leaguer.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, astarlist said:

Will this guy qualify at 2b for yahoo! leagues? He's played at SS after the Andrus injury and is currently only OF eligible

No, he won't.  He just got MI eligibility today to go with OF eligibility, but since he'll be playing SS for quite a while, it won't be possible.  He probably would have if Andrus didn't get hurt, but obviously he did.

 

It'll be interesting to see where he ends up if he continues to produce and sticks once Odor and Andrus get back.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I could see him hitting about .270-.280 and scoring a decent amount of runs if he can keep his OBP high. 

 

In yahoo leagues he is 1 start away from gaining 2B eligibility, 3 starts away from gaining 3B eligibility, and 2 starts away from gaining SS eligibility. I'm hoping he can be a swiss army knife/utility player in my AL only league.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/12/2018 at 10:47 AM, sportsfreak2744 said:

Profar was the #1 prospect in 2013 according to Baseball America.

 

Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein (formerly Baseball Prospectus, now WSC Houston Astros) were both extremely high on him, with Law thinking he'd be a superstar.(https://www.lonestarball.com/2013/12/20/5231484/keith-law-thinks-jurickson-profar-will-be-a-superstar)

 

"Profar has the ultimate mark of an elite prospect. He keeps improving even as he is challenged with better competition. In this case, the Rangers jumped the 19-year-old two levels to Double-A, where he has continued to hit for average, get on base, make contact, show surprising power for his size, hit from both sides of the plate and play plus defense. There's no real hole in his game, and he looks as if he'll be more than ready for the majors before he turns 21 -- another mark of a potential superstar -- if the Rangers can create a spot for him."

 

In a way, what Ozzie Albies is doing right now reminds me of what Profar should have been at his age - but maybe with better plate discipline.

 

He spent all of 2014 and 2015 on the DL and went through shoulder surgery.  

 

I was so excited about this kid and followed him very closely.  He seemed like the can't-miss prospect with no holes in his scouting report.

 

He's only 25...

He doesn't have the speed or power of Albies.  Passing in Roto.

Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

I could see him hitting about .270-.280 and scoring a decent amount of runs if he can keep his OBP high. 

 

In yahoo leagues he is 1 start away from gaining 2B eligibility, 3 starts away from gaining 3B eligibility, and 2 starts away from gaining SS eligibility. I'm hoping he can be a swiss army knife/utility player in my AL only league.  

 

I think that's awfully optimistic. He's hit .228 across 668 MLB ABs. He was a career .279 hitter in the minors. I think best case is hoping he can hit .250-.260, but even that will likely come without much in the counting cats. I'm not in an OBP league or a points league...maybe he'd better in those formats? I can't see that he would, but maybe. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I've given up on this guy. He hasn't really ran since A ball and the power never developed. His numbers weren't even that great in the PCL. He's probably more valuable in real life player than in fantasy. Decent on base guy and solid glove with very few SB and HR.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I think that's awfully optimistic. He's hit .228 across 668 MLB ABs. He was a career .279 hitter in the minors. I think best case is hoping he can hit .250-.260, but even that will likely come without much in the counting cats. I'm not in an OBP league or a points league...maybe he'd better in those formats? I can't see that he would, but maybe. 

 

You're probably right, it probably is too optimistic.

 

I guess I'm just rooting for the guy and hoping that an extended stretch of playing time without being moved in/out of the lineup and/or all around the diamond will help him settle in. He hit .284/.356/.426 in 189 PA in AAA in 2016 and .287/.383/.428 in 383 PA in AAA last year. He's still just 25 years old so I think it's possible he "puts it altogether" at the MLB level and approaches the type of numbers he has put up at AAA. 

 

Expecting it is probably not wise, but thankfully I only own him in a deep AL Only league with 5 OF, MI, CI, and UTIL...

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

You're probably right, it probably is too optimistic.

 

I guess I'm just rooting for the guy and hoping that an extended stretch of playing time without being moved in/out of the lineup and/or all around the diamond will help him settle in. He hit .284/.356/.426 in 189 PA in AAA in 2016 and .287/.383/.428 in 383 PA in AAA last year. He's still just 25 years old so I think it's possible he "puts it altogether" at the MLB level and approaches the type of numbers he has put up at AAA. 

 

Expecting it is probably not wise, but thankfully I only own him in a deep AL Only league with 5 OF, MI, CI, and UTIL...

 

Yeah, I'm kinda rooting for the guy, too. Maybe this is the year with extended playing time. He really hasn't had consistent, extended PT in his MLB career, so maybe getting that now is something that will help him eventually. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...