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Tyler Mahle 2018 Outlook


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Definitely not vs the Cubs.  I dropped him from my teams.  Not too high on him the more I think of it, also he plays in a terrible home park.  Aside from this week (which was a 10-day period in my "we

They are struggling, but they love hitting in Cincy and we saw plenty of pop up HR's in this past series so I feel like the games will be high scoring. 

Started him since Lynn sucked my ERA up real bad.  Happy I did so far!

I wasn't watching but would be interested to hear from someone who did.  Reading through the play-by-play, it seems like he was having a pretty solid outing and just started giving up hits the 3rd time through the lineup, culminating with a 2-run hit by Molina before getting pulled. 

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I posted the following in the Game-Day thread as part of my review of his game: 

 

Mahle's fastball is very sneaky. There was even a lot of broadcast discussion about it (I'm actually rewatching this game now for the first time in-person). Mahle said that he had never really heard much about it until AA because it's his natural motion, but once he got to AA opponents and Coaches discussed a lot about how he hides the fastball really well so it sneaks up on hitters. The problem right now is everything else. Mahle's slider only got a hair over 10+% Whiffs in his first stint and is repeating that figure so far this year. 10% isn't good for a slider. He also didn't throw his Change-Up as much last year (granted 20 IP sample), but these last two starts it has been getting hammered. 

 

Via Brooks, in those two starts he's thrown 31 Change-Ups (17.9%) and managed to generate zero Ks, a HR, a 2B, and 2 1Bs through 10 ABs. Small sample, but that's a .400/.800 BA and SLG. The Whiff% has been decent on the pitch, however. 

 

It was somewhat looked at as a positive after his first start, but after three starts he now has 14 Ks and 13 of them are on the Fastball. The Primary weapon may be the most important thing for a pitcher and I think Tyler Mahle has a really nice one for the basis of a potential future as an MLB starter. But if I'm grading the overall Arsenal right now it gets a poor grade. I'm not too interested in Mahle until we see more out of any secondary offering. 

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16 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Finnegan starting today.  Provided he shows good mechs and endurance, I suppose Romano or Mahle will be in the pen after 1 BF ramps to 90.

 

Why would they move out Bailey, Castillo, Romano, or Mahle? 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Why would they move out Bailey, Castillo, Romano, or Mahle? 

Just saw the DC lists Finnegan as #5 so you're correct.

 

Finn's sinker and slider are looking good today.  Had a bit of command issues on the first 2 batters.

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I did some research on the Reds roster.  I believe right now that Amir Garrett is a real threat to crack the rotation.  Now that Homer Bailey has some trade value, my best guess is they ride these 4 out until they can get some bites on trade candidates.  Mahle is slightly more advanced than Romano but they are both young and controllable.  They should stick around.  Hamilton and Gennett are getting inquiries.  I think Bailey eventually moves with the Reds for a decent chunk of salary relief.  Gennett is talented but why not strengthen a top 10 farm system in this lost season?  As for Hamilton, he is probably the least likeliest to move before early June-ish so long as and when Schebler and Winker are less than full strength.  The latter may still end up on the DL retroactively depending on further testing.

 

Personally not a fan of Peraza as a long term piece and he's not getting much trade chatter either.  If Geno comes back in early May as is now believed possible, I can see some IF moves happening sooner than I outlined, perhaps in conjunction with Bailey.  Hope to see Senzel hitting whenever he earns the call.  He has a Kingery type of skill set IMO.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Intrigued by this guy and C Smith both on my wire. Who do people like more.

 

Seems to have a very good fastball with life which gets by hitters. Probably needs more than just that but I'm willing to start him against the Fish based on his impressive start.

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Looks like he’s over those back to back bad outings after his gem season debut and has settled into a solid contributor again. 

 

I just wonder what the upside really is here. He has dominated with control at every level and if that could continue he can be a mike leake type which is what people are saying. 

 

 

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Something I noticed playing around with Fangraphs split tool - Mahle fared well in his last 2 starts despite facing lefty-stacked lineups. Of the 47 batters he faced, 37 hit from the left side.

 

The Marlins, in addition to just being the worst offensive team in baseball, only have 3 lefty bats on their roster, so they can't employ that strategy.

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11 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Mahle has all the makings of a frontend starter.  Whether he can be consistent or not has yet to be seen at the big league level.  Really like everything I've seen from him.

if he gets the HR's down he is gonna be fine

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I'm firing him up this week. He has pitched quiet well these past 2 weeks. Even his last start was decent. Sure, the Reds offense isn't great, but his potential is worth the risk. The K/9 numbers are encouraging from him, despite control issues. 

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3 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Who’s in for the start @ LAD?  Feels like a decent spot. 

 

Yea, LAD aren't great at home.  And obviously no Seager, still no Turner.  I picked him and am starting.

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  • 5 weeks later...

Another blah/meh outing today but I have to keep reminding myself he's only 23 and only in his first full MLB season. That in mind, I think he's been pretty solid.

 

Today, AT COORS:  96 PC, 5 INN, 6 HA, 2 BBI, 6 K, 2 ER ---game gone to extras so a ND but just one inning away from QS.

 

Not too shabby after four consecutive starts of 4ER - the HR ball has been his weakness (13 HR allowed in 13 starts including none today) it seems though I admittedly have not personally seen any of these games to see how he does with the old 'eye test'. Anyone who has actually watched his starts care to weigh in, I'd appreciate it.

 

He's still right at a K/IP which bodes well for his future as a viable fantasy pitcher once he matures some and experience plays its part in his development.

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