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Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook


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8 hours ago, Smallball said:

It looks to me that he has been searching for his release point.  Looks like he went from an over the top to 3/4 arm slot.  It may not be that drastic but there has been a big change here. That tells me what he is doing is real but could be susceptible to losing it.

 

Good info.  Only small thing I'd disagree with is that this points to him being susceptible to losing it - that arm slot / release point change from 2017 to 2018 is more than just an "accidental" change.  It's such an obvious shift in the data, and consistent, that I feel like he's making a conscious effort to lower his release point (whether that came from his own mind or a coach).  So if that assumption is correct then I think it means he has a high likelihood of it sticking - he won't suddenly lose it or forget his arm slot after he made a conscious effort to change it.  

 

That's what I'm hoping, anyways.

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Not sure stringing three Ks together is a good look. 

Seems about right.  61% of people in this country are idiots.  Us Smith owners are the minority!

Didn't see a thread for him-- didn't necessarily want to make one for him myself, but I do think there's a few things worth discussing here:   The performance to date has been a bit lacklust

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5 minutes ago, AbnerLofton said:

Any confidence starting him vs Braves on Thursday? 

Yes...If he pitches well against them at home, he could be a sp2 Ros. Otherwise he is a streamer in shallow

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1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

Yes...If he pitches well against them at home, he could be a sp2 Ros. Otherwise he is a streamer in shallow

 

Yeah, I don't agree that one start would somehow determine he is either a sp2 or streamer. Obviously, it would be a really good sign to see him shut down that up and coming lineup. I am rolling him out there. 

 

I do not think there is much more that needs to be added at this point. It has been shown/said by multiple people, in multiple different ways. If you aren't on board already, you most likely missed the boat. The guy has made some adjustments and is getting a lot of swing and miss. He is a lefty with a good heater and a nice mix of secondary pitches. He has shown he is already in the conversation to be top 30 overall, at the very least. There isn't much more to add for this dude. He is a good a SP flyer as you can find throughout the season. At this point, all we can do is continue to track how it plays out. 

 

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6 hours ago, AbnerLofton said:

Any confidence starting him vs Braves on Thursday? 

 

At least it's not in ATL, i'd have more hesitation there, although ATL I think plays OK for left handed pitching.  It's a good lineup, but I think he's worth riding while hot. There's obviously risk.

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Atlanta is killing LHP so far this season. They are 1st in almost every statistic category(K%, BA, OBP, SLG...you name it)

 

 

Funny thing is they are better away vs LHP than at home.

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2 minutes ago, Pap said:

Atlanta is killing LHP so far this season. They are 1st in almost every statistic category(K%, BA, OBP, SLG...you name it)

 

Coincidentally enough, they are facing a good lefty tonight... Snell. Let's see what happens.

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Coincidentally enough, they are facing a good lefty tonight... Snell. Let's see what happens.

snell looked pretty good minus the one mistake to acuna.  hope it bodes well for k-leb.

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Ever since Smith started pounding the zone (after the NYY blow-up), he's been almost untouchable. Start until proven otherwise for me.

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19 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Yeah, I think you have to run with him until he proves you shouldn't. 

 

This. If you own him, you start him until he has back to back bad starts. At that point you consider sitting him for the next start. 

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20 hours ago, Pap said:

Atlanta is killing LHP so far this season. They are 1st in almost every statistic category(K%, BA, OBP, SLG...you name it)

 

 

Funny thing is they are better away vs LHP than at home.

 

I'm wondering if this is just a case of a small sample size and less than stellar lefties facing ATL?  Looking at the lineup they're rolling out, Freeman and Markakis at 3/4 are both LH batters, so even without significant platoon splits, you'd think facing a LHP certainly isn't going to be advantageous.  Albies is a switch hitter, so you're facing his opposite side no matter what.  Really the only righties to be afraid of are Acuna, and the ghost of Bautista. 

 

Not sure why a good LHP isn't going to have success against ATL, and Snell proved that last night.  I could see second-guessing starting Smith @ NYY or something like that, but lefty/right home/away splits a month into the season for the Atlanta Braves seems like we might be over-thinking this one a bit much.  

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10 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I'm wondering if this is just a case of a small sample size and less than stellar lefties facing ATL?  Looking at the lineup they're rolling out, Freeman and Markakis at 3/4 are both LH batters, so even without significant platoon splits, you'd think facing a LHP certainly isn't going to be advantageous.  Albies is a switch hitter, so you're facing his opposite side no matter what.  Really the only righties to be afraid of are Acuna, and the ghost of Bautista. 

 

Not sure why a good LHP isn't going to have success against ATL, and Snell proved that last night.  I could see second-guessing starting Smith @ NYY or something like that, but lefty/right home/away splits a month into the season for the Atlanta Braves seems like we might be over-thinking this one a bit much.  

Albies is the #2 hitter in the MLB vs LHP on away games with at least 20 AB.  The #4 hitter overall vs LHP.....38 PA vs LHP

 

 

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