Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

Albies is the #2 hitter in the MLB vs LHP on away games with at least 20 AB.  The #4 hitter overall vs LHP..

 

 

 

But what are his career numbers versus Smith?  Joking aside, I don't think you can just automatically assume he will own Smith.  #spinrate

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 468
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Not sure stringing three Ks together is a good look. 

Seems about right.  61% of people in this country are idiots.  Us Smith owners are the minority!

Didn't see a thread for him-- didn't necessarily want to make one for him myself, but I do think there's a few things worth discussing here:   The performance to date has been a bit lacklust

Posted Images

Just now, BigPapi44 said:

 

But what are his career numbers versus Smith?  Joking aside, I don't think you can just automatically assume he will own Smith.  #spinrate

we shall find out tomorrow! lol 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, jb_power said:

^

Kurt Suzuki has been hitting well vs LHP the last year and a half

 

 

6 hours ago, cdd10 said:

Albies is the #2 hitter in the MLB vs LHP on away games with at least 20 AB.  The #4 hitter overall vs LHP.....38 PA vs LHP

 

 

 

I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but these are extremely small sample sizes to draw any conclusions from.  Platoon splits take some time to stabilize, and even taking Suzuki's stats from the last year and a half, we're still talking 88 PA's vs LHP.  In his career (1348 PA vs LHP) he has basically zero platoon split (.256 vs LHP and .259 vs RHP).  Sure, he's made some changes and improvements to his hitting in the last calendar year, which have increased his output overall, but it's still too soon to decide his changes have resulted in him becoming a lefty masher.

 

The Albies splits are an even smaller sample size, we're talking about 26 PA's vs. LHP away, and 41 PA's overall?  That's like, 6 or 7 full games worth of data.  You can't draw any worthwhile conclusions on a SS that tiny.  You can say Albies seems to hit lefties well by eye test and take that for what it's worth, but these sample sizes are in the firmly useless category.

 

I'll also say that I'm the type of owner that will start a pitcher if I own him under almost any circumstances (H2H), so trying to make a case to sit him against the #13-ranked offense vs LHP in 2018 (and #25 vs LHP in 2017) seems a little far fetched to me.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, handyandy86 said:

 

 

I'm not saying you guys are wrong, but these are extremely small sample sizes to draw any conclusions from.  Platoon splits take some time to stabilize, and even taking Suzuki's stats from the last year and a half, we're still talking 88 PA's vs LHP.  In his career (1348 PA vs LHP) he has basically zero platoon split (.256 vs LHP and .259 vs RHP).  Sure, he's made some changes and improvements to his hitting in the last calendar year, which have increased his output overall, but it's still too soon to decide his changes have resulted in him becoming a lefty masher.

 

The Albies splits are an even smaller sample size, we're talking about 26 PA's vs. LHP away, and 41 PA's overall?  That's like, 6 or 7 full games worth of data.  You can't draw any worthwhile conclusions on a SS that tiny.  You can say Albies seems to hit lefties well by eye test and take that for what it's worth, but these sample sizes are in the firmly useless category.

 

I'll also say that I'm the type of owner that will start a pitcher if I own him under almost any circumstances (H2H), so trying to make a case to sit him against the #13-ranked offense vs LHP in 2018 (and #25 vs LHP in 2017) seems a little far fetched to me.

small sample size for caleb smith as well. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, cdd10 said:

small sample size for caleb smith as well. 

 

Sure, but every stat takes a different amount of time to stabilize and become relevant.  K-rate stabilizes after 70 batters which tells me Smith's 12.5 K/9 is no fluke.  Whiff rates tend to stabilize around 500+ pitches, and Smith is just over 600 pitches.  I can't say definitively that Smith is going to keep pitching well, but there are a lot of numbers there that are stabilized already and looking like he's the real deal.

 

On the other hand, AVG takes 910 AB's to stabilize, OBP takes 460 PA, HR rate takes 170 PA.  So talking about sample sizes of 26 PA doesn't mean anything, statistically.  There isn't a single batting statistic that has stabilized in that small of a sample.  

 

Not to mention the assertion that the Braves are middle-of-the-pack vs LHP at home, but tops on the road makes no sense.  SunTrust has a positive (above 1) park factor, so why would a team that plays in a hitter's park be better offensively on the road, and only against LHP?  

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Sure, but every stat takes a different amount of time to stabilize and become relevant.  K-rate stabilizes after 70 batters which tells me Smith's 12.5 K/9 is no fluke.  Whiff rates tend to stabilize around 500+ pitches, and Smith is just over 600 pitches.  I can't say definitively that Smith is going to keep pitching well, but there are a lot of numbers there that are stabilized already and looking like he's the real deal.

 

On the other hand, AVG takes 910 AB's to stabilize, OBP takes 460 PA, HR rate takes 170 PA.  So talking about sample sizes of 26 PA doesn't mean anything, statistically.  There isn't a single batting statistic that has stabilized in that small of a sample.  

 

Not to mention the assertion that the Braves are middle-of-the-pack vs LHP at home, but tops on the road makes no sense.  SunTrust has a positive (above 1) park factor, so why would a team that plays in a hitter's park be better offensively on the road, and only against LHP?  

I agree with what you are saying, but where did you get these exact numbers of stabilization from? They make sense, but I want to read more. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

I agree with what you are saying, but where did you get these exact numbers of stabilization from? They make sense, but I want to read more. 

 

Not sure exactly where he read it, but after reading his post and seeing your response, I decided to Google it to see if I could find anything.  I came across this:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

 

I'm sure there are some books as well.  Google/Amazon are great tools.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Braves stats vs LHP do look like a bit of fluke, given they are so drastically better away than home, makes little  sense. 

 

Still not sure what to do, maybe it's best to give him some love and trust after 3 great games and just roll him out for this one.

 

So, starting with hope but not completely confident.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Sure, but every stat takes a different amount of time to stabilize and become relevant.  K-rate stabilizes after 70 batters which tells me Smith's 12.5 K/9 is no fluke.  Whiff rates tend to stabilize around 500+ pitches, and Smith is just over 600 pitches.  I can't say definitively that Smith is going to keep pitching well, but there are a lot of numbers there that are stabilized already and looking like he's the real deal.

 

On the other hand, AVG takes 910 AB's to stabilize, OBP takes 460 PA, HR rate takes 170 PA.  So talking about sample sizes of 26 PA doesn't mean anything, statistically.  There isn't a single batting statistic that has stabilized in that small of a sample.  

 

Not to mention the assertion that the Braves are middle-of-the-pack vs LHP at home, but tops on the road makes no sense.  SunTrust has a positive (above 1) park factor, so why would a team that plays in a hitter's park be better offensively on the road, and only against LHP?  

I think the K rate is a little high unless he just drastically changed something about himself during the offseason

Link to post
Share on other sites

Haven't seen him pitch, but is he similar to JA Happ? Happ has morphed into a K machine and he's like 75 years old and didn't K much before and I doubt he has better stuff than Caleb or am I wrong?... Sorry if this doesn't  make sense to some, just want to have an idea of what we have in this fella.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

I agree with what you are saying, but where did you get these exact numbers of stabilization from? They make sense, but I want to read more. 

 

3 hours ago, ToO_BaD said:

 

Not sure exactly where he read it, but after reading his post and seeing your response, I decided to Google it to see if I could find anything.  I came across this:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

 

I'm sure there are some books as well.  Google/Amazon are great tools.

 

This is what I was using.  You might get slightly different sample sizes from different sources, and obviously it's not an exact science, but it gives you a rough idea if the stat you're looking at would be considered "stable" or close to it, or if you're still 500 PA away from it being reliable data.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Pap said:

Braves stats vs LHP do look like a bit of fluke, given they are so drastically better away than home, makes little  sense. 

 

Still not sure what to do, maybe it's best to give him some love and trust after 3 great games and just roll him out for this one.

 

So, starting with hope but not completely confident.

 

Same spot. Gotta decide between Smith or Buehler. 

 

With Acuña on board, Markakis mashing, and Freeman being Freeman...this is the Smith litmus test for me.

 

If he looks good tonight, he is in the circle of trust. If not he's still the Gay Focker of my roster. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

Same spot. Gotta decide between Smith or Buehler. 

 

With Acuña on board, Markakis mashing, and Freeman being Freeman...this is the Smith litmus test for me.

 

If he looks good tonight, he is in the circle of trust. If not he's still the Gay Focker of my roster. 

Its KKK-leb! ??

 

Buehler. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Not a great start, Still had 5ks.  Sucks the bullpen couldn't hold a guy at 1st with 2 outs for the last ER. 

not a terrible start either against a team that (although fairly small sample size) is good against lefties.  he should do just fine pitching in that park in the nl.  i would think sp5 or better ros in 12 team leagues....

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...