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Daniel Robertson 2018 Outlook


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Just wondering that too. Just seen his stats on the wire, probably a hot schmotato but the plate discipline (12/13) means this could possibly be real?

 

Not sure how much to expect in terms of power/speed, but he's interesting hitting like this.

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His ceiling definitely seems to be somewhat capped because he's not really a speedster or a power guy - he's never stolen more than 4 bases in a season, and his HR-high was 15 a few years ago in A+ ball.  That's not to say he can't develop some more power at the age of 24, but at this point his batted ball profile doesn't really support it.  His FB% seems too low and GB% too high to really be a high-HR type of guy.

 

That being said he does profile as a player with very good OBP skills - he walks a decent amount and makes decent contact.  His BABIP so far this season is high and is going to regress, which is expected when he's hitting .318, but some of his gains seem to be at least partially fueled by good hitting.  His LD% is up and his Hard% is also up.  Whether or not he can keep those increases over the full season is yet to be seen.

 

Overall I'm buying in deeper leagues / leagues where the MI position is used, and although I think his upside is somewhat capped in fantasy, he seems like he has potential to be a good contact / on base guy.  He's been hitting out of the 5 spot, which seems like a bit of an odd position for a guy with his skill set, but if he keeps hitting and keeps producing then ride him for what you can.  

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For what it's worth, one of the best prospect guys out there, John Sickels at Minorleagueball, wrote about Robertson as a candidate to have a (relative) power spike as he got further into his 20s.  With consistent playing time, I could see him finishing with something similar to what Matt Duffy put up a few years ago (12 HR, 12 SB, 0.295 AVE) except maybe 15-8 instead of 12-12.  

 

 

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so is he going to have a place to play once duffy is back off the DL?  He'd been helping to fill in for Miller for awhile too -- who is now back.   he started the season in short side of platoon at 2b with wendle.  not sure if he will get full time ABs once everyone is healthy.  I hope he does though, the eligibility in yahoo at 2b, ss, 3b is very useful in deeper leagues.  

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57 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

His ceiling definitely seems to be somewhat capped because he's not really a speedster or a power guy - he's never stolen more than 4 bases in a season, and his HR-high was 15 a few years ago in A+ ball.  That's not to say he can't develop some more power at the age of 24, but at this point his batted ball profile doesn't really support it.  His FB% seems too low and GB% too high to really be a high-HR type of guy.

 

That being said he does profile as a player with very good OBP skills - he walks a decent amount and makes decent contact.  His BABIP so far this season is high and is going to regress, which is expected when he's hitting .318, but some of his gains seem to be at least partially fueled by good hitting.  His LD% is up and his Hard% is also up.  Whether or not he can keep those increases over the full season is yet to be seen.

 

Overall I'm buying in deeper leagues / leagues where the MI position is used, and although I think his upside is somewhat capped in fantasy, he seems like he has potential to be a good contact / on base guy.  He's been hitting out of the 5 spot, which seems like a bit of an odd position for a guy with his skill set, but if he keeps hitting and keeps producing then ride him for what you can.  

 

I grabbed him when I lost Andrus. The positional flexibility for a guy getting consistent ABs is nice (check your league settings) and isn't going to tank your BA is nice.

 

To clarify on one point you made, he batted 5th in the order during the series against the Twins. The four games prior his position in the order was 2, 1, 6, and 9.

 

In a AL-only I don't see how he can't be rostered given the opportunity and how he's getting on base. Not sure how useful he is in shallower leagues with his current projected stats and playing time.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Daniel Robertson 2018 Outlook

14 BB to 12 K’s.  Came over from the A’s organization in Ben Zobrist deal.  Oddly enough some people compare him to Zobrist.  Seems like a very professional hitter.  Have to watch to tune into some Rays games (will pop a few 5 hour energy prior so I don’t fall asleep) and watch this young man.  Everything I’m reading and seeing in his profile makes it seem like he’s a professional stick.  Hes caught my attention.  

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The reason why he's been playing so much is Matt Duffy been on the DL...and thats where the problem is. Duffy is coming back this weekend. 

 

Maybe the Rays will play Robertson at 2B over Joey Wendle? Wendle has been playing well too...

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Starting to look like a strong add to me.  He's on fire lately and brings some awesome positional eligibility at 2B and SS.  Has he earned everyday at-bats at this point?

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22 minutes ago, Trifecta said:

Starting to look like a strong add to me.  He's on fire lately and brings some awesome positional eligibility at 2B and SS.  Has he earned everyday at-bats at this point?

 

Duffy returning could ruin everything and I hope not since I own him in my dynasty league. Robertson is just 24 and a former first rounder so I hope the Tays give him every chance to prove himself, obp monster so far in getting on base at a 49 percent clip. Wild. 

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Just hit his 3rd HR of the season.

 

Power is going to be key to his long-term fantasy usefulness. The OBP is great but he's unlikely to ever be a SB threat so he'll need some HR and RBI. This is a really encouraging start though and he may be pushing his way into my dynasty plans.

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Fangraphs has a great new article about Robertson talking about his swing changes. Maybe the dude is for real!

 

Quote

He credits an adjustment for his fast start. Rightly unsatisfied with his rookie-season output — Robertson logged a .634 OPS in part-time duty — he spent the winter revamping his stroke under the tutelage of a pair of hitting gurus. No longer satisfied with a “pretty generic swing,” he’s now embracing launch angle (a term he uses cautiously) and adopting a rhythm-conscious mindset that allows him to transfer his energy through the baseball.

 

Quote

“I changed where I’m firing my barrel from, basically. I don’t know how I got away with it in the minor leagues for so long, but I was always a guy who thought, ‘Throw your hands down to the ball.’ Now I’ve kind of bought into launch angle and getting on plane with the baseball. That allows my barrel to stay in the zone longer and essentially allows me to see the ball longer.

 

Quote

“The guys I worked with are pretty well known: Robert Van Scoyoc and Craig Wallenbrock. And Jay Gibbons would be sitting in there. It’s awesome, man. You go in there and take swings and learn new stuff. You do different drills to teach your body different things. You watch video. You have guys who fly in from coast to coast — J.D. Martinez is one of the guys they’ve hit with — and I was fortunate that it was an hour-and-a-half drive for me. I made the most of it, and they changed my career.”

 

Quote

“Another thing — maybe the biggest thing — is that I’m not scared to fail anymore. Last year, I was so scared to fail that I wouldn’t swing at pitches. I was passive. This year, if I swing at a stupid pitch, it’s, ‘You know what, man? It’s over with. Screw it. Hit the next pitch. That’s what I’ve been doing.”

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daniel-robertson-on-his-new-swing/

 

There's a lot more in the article that I think's worth reading. He's pretty articulate about what he's doing and his thought process.

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Thanks for the link to the FG article!

 

Deep dynasty AL only I had to scramble to find a useful IF to cover for Andrus when he went down. I took a chance on Daniel here mid-April and he has not disappointed, quickly spinning off a 7 game hit streak. Granted the counting stats are nowhere near what I'm missing out on, this guy is playing just about every day and getting on base often. He's going to make it tough when Andrus comes back because I'll need to drop Robertson or a guy like Neil Walker. I was worried the Rays would be using him less when Duffy came back. Then there's also Wendle and Miller to compete with for playing time. So far so good though.

 

It would be nice to see more RBIs out of Robertson, especially with how hot the Rays have been lately. That's not really his fault though when he's batting out of the 5 hole and the guys in front of him aren't getting on. All things considered, really happy with what he's been doing.

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1 hour ago, Lebanasty said:

Thanks for the link to the FG article!

 

Deep dynasty AL only I had to scramble to find a useful IF to cover for Andrus when he went down. I took a chance on Daniel here mid-April and he has not disappointed, quickly spinning off a 7 game hit streak. Granted the counting stats are nowhere near what I'm missing out on, this guy is playing just about every day and getting on base often. He's going to make it tough when Andrus comes back because I'll need to drop Robertson or a guy like Neil Walker. I was worried the Rays would be using him less when Duffy came back. Then there's also Wendle and Miller to compete with for playing time. So far so good though.

 

It would be nice to see more RBIs out of Robertson, especially with how hot the Rays have been lately. That's not really his fault though when he's batting out of the 5 hole and the guys in front of him aren't getting on. All things considered, really happy with what he's been doing.

Yeah, I’m in a 14 teamer and I needed some MI backup after Kingery started scuffling. I saw Robertson there and he hasn’t disappointed yet. His two position eligibility is handy as well. 

 

It is a bit of a bummer that he’s not getting the counting stats, but being in an OBP league, I’ve appreciated that I can just plug him in there and at least not have him hurt me.  And considering how short MI was in my league, you could do a lot worse than him, especially if all these swing changes that he’s talking about really stick.

 

That’s what I’m most curious about going forward though. How the league adjusts to his changes and how he might adjust back. Nothing in the Fangraphs article struck me as unreasonable or particularly shocking. It read like some really smart, sustainable changes. 

 

Hopefully he he keeps it up!

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It hasn't really been mentioned since the Duffy speculation earlier, but since Duffy has returned Robertson is still getting regular PT. He's versatile enough that he's been playing basically full time split between SS and 2B, with Hech and Wendle taking the hit in PT. 

 

Looks like full steam ahead for now. 

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24 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

It hasn't really been mentioned since the Duffy speculation earlier, but since Duffy has returned Robertson is still getting regular PT. He's versatile enough that he's been playing basically full time split between SS and 2B, with Hech and Wendle taking the hit in PT. 

 

Looks like full steam ahead for now. 

Which is a good sign, because that means the Rays themselves seem to believe in his adjustments, and they have a better idea of how they're working than any of us.

 

Either that or they're just going to ride his hot hand until he plummets, which is fine with me.

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Out of the lineup today.

 

The Rays faced lefties in 3 of the first 4 games since Duffy returned, and Wendle usually sits vs. L. That may be the reason Robertson has kept playing more than anything.

 

His platoon splits are good from both sides right now, but his .899 OPS vs. R is mostly the result of a .500 BABIP and should regress, while he's showing some legit skills vs. L.

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8 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Streamed him the last couple of days. Didn't even know who he was haha.

 

The selectivity is very intriguing. Worth following. Dropped to 8th today vs. Shotani though. Weird.

It's got to be because of his L/R splits right?

 

I dropped him a week or so ago, but he is actually pretty interesting still.

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