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Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook


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SAQUON BARKLEY

 

Born: February 7, 1997 (age 20), New York, NY
Height: 5′ 11″
Weight: 233 lbs
Position: Running back
40 Time: 4.40


Strengths: Running, Catching, Breaking Tackles, Touched by the hand of god, Football in general.

 

Weaknesses: Went to Penn State, bounces too many runs?

 

Per Walter Football:

 

http://walterfootball.com/draft2018RB.php

 

1/13/18: Barkley has devastating quickness to hit the hole and accelerate downfield. Along with great speed, he has tremendous balance, vision, cutting ability, elusiveness and power. Barkley looks like a better prospect than Ezekiel Elliott, and is proving that he is a prospect of similar caliber to players like Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley. There is no doubt that Barkley is an elite prospect and currently is the top offensive skill-position prospect for the 2018 NFL Draft. He is in the running to be the top prospect at any position. 

 

On the year, Barkley averaged 5.9 yards per carry for 1,271 yards with 18 touchdowns. He had 54 receptions for 632 yards and three touchdowns as a receiver. 

 

Barkley had a dominant game against Iowa to carry his team to a tough road win and illustrate why he is a tremendous talent and a game changer. Versus the Hawkeyes, Barkley ran for 211 yards on 28 carries with one touchdown. He caught 12 passes for 94 yards to lead Penn State in receiving, too. The junior had 53 return yards on special teams as well. Between all of that, Barkley set a Penn State record for all-purpose yards. The Iowa tape illustrates why Barkley is worthy of being a top-five pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Earlier, Barkley had a superb game against Pittsburgh with 14 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown on the ground with four receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown as a receiver. 

 

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7 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

Jstew doesn’t even exist. Won’t have 50 carries all year.

Exactly.  He’s a backup.   Mentor maybe.  

 

Cleveland has Hyde and duke 

jets have Crowell ,Powell, McGuire, and Rawls

 

Colts might have been a slightly better situation but it’s not by a lot.  

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

Jstew doesn’t even exist. Won’t have 50 carries all year.

 

He shouldn't considering the Giants drafted Barkley at #2.   I was a bit interested to see if he would have a bounce back season (He faced the most 8 man boxes last year of any RB).

 

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The NYG are just as good a fit as any in the top 10 IMO.  I wouldn't value Barkley much differently if he were to have slid and landed in either DEN, IND or TB.  NY is sticking with Manning (passing on one of the potential franchise QB at #2) and are clearly in "win now" mode.  The signing of Solder and hopeful drafting of some additional O-line talent will help and let's also not forget that OBJ, Engram & Sheppard running routes are going to open up tons of running and RB passing lanes.  No way that Saquon loses out on significant carries due to a scrub like Perkins and washed-up JStew.  EVERY team in the NFL has back-up RB's, I'd MUCH rather Saquon's competition be Perkins, JStew & Gallman vs talented guys like Hyde & Duke or McKinnon. 

 

If Barkely flashes in the preseason, you're going to have to use a 1st round fantasy pick to have him on your squad.

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28 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

They signed JStew.

 

They signed him 7 weeks ago, most likely when they were eyeing Barkley and didn't know if the Browns would snatch him. (The Browns signed Hyde after the Giants signed JStew.) I wonder if the Giants could re-do JStew's two-year 6.9 million dollar contract if they would simply pass.

 

27 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

Jstew doesn’t even exist. Won’t have 50 carries all year.

 

True about the carries, yet JStew is more than capable of using his plus-sized frame to vulture TDs. So, the question might not be how many carries, rather it might be how many of these carries will be within the five-yard line?

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11 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

 NY clearly in "win now" mode. 

 

If Barkely flashes in the preseason, you're going to have to use a 1st round fantasy pick to have him on your squad.

 

NY has always been in the "win now" mode, they're just not good at it.

 

I agree: I see Squanchy going in Round 2, yet pre-season performance and hype can pull him into late Round 1. Sharing a league with Giants' fans will add fuel that fire as well.

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2 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

NY has always been in the "win now" mode, they're just not good at it.

 

I agree: I see Squanchy going in Round 2, yet pre-season performance and hype can pull him into late Round 1. Sharing a league with Giants' fans will add fuel that fire as well.

 

How many teams have 2 Super Bowls in the last decade and just went 11-5 in 2016 - when the roster was overhauled and guys were actually healthy 

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Just now, cohenstantinople said:

 

NY has always been in the "win now" mode, they're just not good at it.

 

I agree: I see Squanchy going in Round 2, yet pre-season performance and hype can pull him into late Round 1. Sharing a league with Giants' fans will add fuel that fire as well.

 

Agreed that they have always been trying to win these last number of seasons.  To clarify what I meant is that the team clearly is not going into rebuild mode, hence they are not going to try to baby or bring Saquon along slowly for the 2018 season.  He's going to see a ton of touches, which should mean good things for his fantasy value.

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1 minute ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

They signed him 7 weeks ago, most likely when they were eyeing Barkley and didn't know if the Browns would snatch him. (The Browns signed Hyde after the Giants signed JStew.) I wonder if the Giants could re-do JStew's two-year 6.9 million dollar contract if they would simply pass.

 

 

True about the carries, yet JStew is more than capable of using his plus-sized frame to vulture TDs. So, the question might not be how many carries, rather it might be how many of these carries will be within the five-yard line?

 

Actually, this was discussed a bit last night somewhere. I was listening and reading so many things that I cant remember who or where but I agreed with the premise. J-Stew is actually a great compliment to Barkley from a leadership and experience perspective. J-Stew is a great locker room guy who could be a nice mentor. From a fantasy perspective, I don't think J-Stew would eat into Barkley's fantasy production whatsoever. I think the offense should be more prolific which should result in more TD's which would make Stew and intriguing prospect in TD only leagues, outside of that, Barkley will be fed as much as he can handle.

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4 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

How many teams have 2 Super Bowls in the last decade and just went 11-5 in 2016 - when the roster was overhauled and guys were actually healthy 

 

It was meant as a joke. Relax. I like the Giants.

 

I-squanch-my-family-gif.gif

 

3 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

 

Agreed that they have always been trying to win these last number of seasons.  To clarify what I meant is that the team clearly is not going into rebuild mode, hence they are not going to try to baby or bring Saquon along slowly for the 2018 season.  He's going to see a ton of touches, which should mean good things for his fantasy value.

 

Agreed all around. Just cracking a joke.

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5 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Actually, this was discussed a bit last night somewhere. I was listening and reading so many things that I cant remember who or where but I agreed with the premise. J-Stew is actually a great compliment to Barkley from a leadership and experience perspective. J-Stew is a great locker room guy who could be a nice mentor. From a fantasy perspective, I don't think J-Stew would eat into Barkley's fantasy production whatsoever. I think the offense should be more prolific which should result in more TD's which would make Stew and intriguing prospect in TD only leagues, outside of that, Barkley will be fed as much as he can handle.

 

I agree, and I like JStew as an experienced mentor and not a threat. He really seems like a great guy and dedicated athlete (and great piano player). I do see him eating into Barkley's touches, and Barkley's goal-line touches, but I don't think it will be significant (i.e. not a time-share by any means).

 

Thing is, we all saw Gurley two years ago, solid RB on an inept offense: Gurley had the same amount of carries in 2016 as he did in 2017; sometimes skill ain't enough, and one RB cannot carry a team if the team does not have some semblance of balance:

 

Gurley 2016 = 278 carries / 885 yards / 6 TDs.

Gurley 2017 = 279 / 1305 yards / 13 TDs

 

I'm not the anti-Barkley guy here (Lord Varys is ;) )----just the opposite----but I'm cautious, and someone has to provide the devil's advocate position as we analyze unknowns.

 

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

And the giants with Solder + whoever else we all know they will pick will probably be at least average.    I actually like the spot.  Cleveland or the Jets would have been messy.   

 

My question is:  is there any reason Barkley won’t get a Zeke-like workload right away? 

The left side of the line got way better with the signings of Solder and Omameh from Jaguars. Halapio came on strong last year and Greco also brings good depth at guard. We will most likely be drafting another tackle in this draft. Barkley will also make the line look a lot better. All in all Barkley will be a stud but dont discount J Stew getting some short yardage work to start. 

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Folks, it may make sense to specify whether your comments apply to PPR or standard.  In PPR (all I play), this guy will have very high value.

You make a good point. How many targets are you predicting? Been a while since I paid any attention to a Giants RB. How often do they throw to Giants' RB's? If he is also going to get a good amount of target he is easily a 1st round pick in PPR drafts.

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4 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

The left side of the line got way better with the signings of Solder and Omameh from Jaguars. Halapio came on strong last year and Greco also brings good depth at guard. We will most likely be drafting another tackle in this draft. Barkley will also make the line look a lot better. All in all Barkley will be a stud but dont discount J Stew getting some short yardage work to start. 

 

Good points. Also, lets not forget that the Giants have three of the next 37 picks. We can expect some more starting help on OL.

 

7 minutes ago, devaster said:

You make a good point. How many targets are you predicting? Been a while since I paid any attention to a Giants RB. How often do they throw to Giants' RB's? If he is also going to get a good amount of target he is easily a 1st round pick in PPR drafts.

 

Not sure that you can make a direct comparison since Eli hasnt had a weapon out of the backfield like Barkley. For individual stats, I think that you will have to go back to Tiki Barber since he really was of a "similar" skill set. In Eli's first few seasons, Tiki had 79/70/75 targets in three consecutive seasons from 2005-07. More recently, Vereen had 81 targets and Rashad Jennings had 40 in the same season in 2015. So between them they combined for 121 targets out of the backfield.

 

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Quick math showed 139 targets between Vereen, Gallman, Darkwa, and Perkins last year.     Vereen had 53, Darkwa 28, and they're gone.    I'm gonna guess that Perkins doesn't make the team, and Stewart isn't seeing many.    However, i'd expect more run, less pass........but also more overall plays with a full year of OBJ and Barkley.  Hard to say for sure, but i'm thinking 70-80 is reasonable.  That's McCoy/Gordon range.   

 

Of course, he's gotta be able to do blitz pickup, or he's going to struggle for 3rd down snaps to start.

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Plus it’s Gallman and Darkwa as comp?  

 

Sounding like a first round fantasy pick to me.  Easily 

 

2 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

They signed JStew.

 

2 hours ago, petekrum said:

 

Jstew doesn’t even exist. Won’t have 50 carries all year.

 

1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

Exactly.  He’s a backup.   Mentor maybe.  

 

 

1 hour ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

They signed him 7 weeks ago, most likely when they were eyeing Barkley and didn't know if the Browns would snatch him.

 

1 hour ago, nonstopfan said:

From a fantasy perspective, I don't think J-Stew would eat into Barkley's fantasy production whatsoever.

 

1 hour ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I agree, and I like JStew as an experienced mentor and not a threat.

 

I think we can all agree JStew shouldn't be taking many touches from Saquon.  I was simply pointing out that he was on the team since Impreza forgot about him.

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1 hour ago, cohenstantinople said:

Thing is, we all saw Gurley two years ago, solid RB on an inept offense: Gurley had the same amount of carries in 2016 as he did in 2017; sometimes skill ain't enough, and one RB cannot carry a team if the team does not have some semblance of balance:

 

Gurley 2016 = 278 carries / 885 yards / 6 TDs.

Gurley 2017 = 279 / 1305 yards / 13 TDs

 

I'm not the anti-Barkley guy here (Lord Varys is ;) )----just the opposite----but I'm cautious, and someone has to provide the devil's advocate position as we analyze unknowns.

 

Pat Shurmur isn't Jeff Fisher.
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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

WHere would everyone be ok taking him 12 team Ppr redraft?

 

#7 or #8 pick overall. 

 

If he blows up in the preseason, he'll enter top-5 overall easily. 

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22 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

WHere would everyone be ok taking him 12 team Ppr redraft?

 

17 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

#7 or #8 pick overall. 

 

If he blows up in the preseason, he'll enter top-5 overall easily. 

 

I like the optimism but if I drafted today I'd exercise caution over hope.

 

Call me a traditionalist, but I'd choose any of the following over Barkley right now, today, April 27th:

Tier 1

Bell, Zeke, DJ, Gurley, AB, OBJ, Nuk, Julio

I would also take any one of these workhorses over Barkley:

Tier 2

MThomas, KAllen, Freeman, Fournette

But I'd start considering Barkley here

Tier 3

Hunt, AJG, MEvans, MGordon, Shady, Kamara, Cook

And I'd go Squanchy before drafting any of these dudes

Tier 5 / Tier 6

DAdams, TY, THill, Ingram, JHoward, Josh Gordon, ARob, Diggs, Thielen, DThomas, Mixon

Disclaimer: the word "tier" is always relative, and some notebooks have twenty tiers, some four; the grouping counts more than the number.

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7 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

 

 

I like the optimism but if I drafted today I'd exercise caution over hope.

 

Call me a traditionalist, but I'd choose any of the following over Barkley right now, today, April 27th:

Tier 1

Bell, Zeke, DJ, Gurley, AB, OBJ, Nuk, Julio

 

 

I would also take any one of these workhorses over Barkley:

Tier 2

MThomas, KAllen, Freeman, Fournette

 

 

But I'd start considering Barkley here

Tier 3

Hunt, AJG, MEvans, MGordon, Shady, Kamara, Cook

 

 

And I'd go Squanchy before drafting any of these dudes

Tier 5 / Tier 6

DAdams, TY, THill, Ingram, JHoward, Josh Gordon, ARob, Diggs, Thielen, DThomas, Mixon

 

 

Disclaimer: the word "tier" is always relative, and some notebooks have twenty tiers, some four; the grouping counts more than the number.

 

You seem to missing a tier4

 

In ppr  no CMC or mkinnon? who I would slide int your tier3 and both who I would take ahead of barkley.

 

Barkley is a 3rd rounder for me or in your tier hierarchy tier 5 since u don't have a tier4.  I don't have a high opinion of taking rookies early in fantasy and  I currently have barkley at the same tier of his fellow rookie penny since i consider the Giants and seahawks not that far apart in terms of what their rb's will produce but wilsons mobility should add alot of value to penny

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54 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

WHere would everyone be ok taking him 12 team Ppr redraft?

 

My middle of the road guesstimate: 300 points in PPR, with the potential to get into the high 300's....

 

He should be drafted in the mid to late first round in full PPR redraft. 

 

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14 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

You seem to missing a tier4

 

In ppr  no CMC or mkinnon? who I would slide int your tier3 and both who I would take ahead of barkley.

 

Barkley is a 3rd rounder for me or in your tier hierarchy tier 5 since u don't have a tier4.  I don't have a high opinion of taking rookies early in fantasy and  I currently have barkley at the same tier of his fellow rookie penny since i consider the Giants and seahawks not that far apart in terms of what their rb's will produce but wilsons mobility should add alot of value to penny

 

Tier 4 is under construction. (But that's for pointing that out.) McKinnon and CMcC would be there, though I'm higher on the former's role in the offense and the latter's ability. I'm not sure if I would go McK or CMcC over Barkley or not... wouldn't fault anyone for this choice, just need to think more about it.

 

Considering my omission, I'd group 3 and 4 together (like I did with 5 and 6), but for me that Tier 2 stands out, possibly because that's what I've been thinking about a lot since I pick at 1.10, 1.11, and 1.12 in multiple leagues: Keenan Allen, D Freeman, and Fournette. It's highly possible Julio slips to those numbers too. Didn't place everyone in there. Forgot Alshon, too, and I'm high on him this coming season as a value pick (as he'll be well into rounds 3 and possibly available in 4).

 

I like Barkley above Penny. And I like the Giants above Seattle when it comes to developing a run game. Personal opinion. And certainly, one QB is highly mobile and less likely to dumb the ball off, and the other prefers his pocket.

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