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Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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3 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

 

So there's some recent evidence that one or two rookie RBs might make the top 5.  But to pick a specific ONE (Barkley) and say, THIS one will, is a losing proposition.  1 in 15 gives you about a 6.7% chance of being right--and that's if TWO rookie RBs make the top 5.  If only one does, your chances of picking that one are only half that.

 

And yes, the same goes for vets.  We know that probly 4 of them will be in the top 5--but the trick is figuring out which 4.  Saying that 4 vets will be in the top 5 is almost a slam dunk; identifying them by name before the season starts is also a losing proposition.

 

The two that ended up in the top 5 last season were not the highest-ranked rookie RBs; Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon and Cook were all rated higher than Hunt and Kamara.

 

But these rookies you are using are not being drafted and used the same as Zeke, Fournette, etc. Barkley is going to get 300 touches at the least if healthy, which gives him the volume to succeed and obtain the top 5 status. All of these rookies you have used to lower the % chance of landing a top fantasy rookie rb is misleading. That is all i was trying to point out. 

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Lol. LF was #8 in my league and missed 3 games. 

 

If someone says this guy's gonna be top 5 and he ends up just outside at #6 you gonna be like, "nope, not even close". 

 

What're we even talking about here? 

 

Hunt was drafted over Mixon in probably every draft that took place after ware tore whatever he tore.

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34 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Lol. LF was #8 in my league and missed 3 games. 

 

If someone says this guy's gonna be top 5 and he ends up just outside at #6 you gonna be like, "nope, not even close". 

 

What're we even talking about here? 

 

Hunt was drafted over Mixon in probably every draft that took place after ware tore whatever he tore.

 

And Guice will get drafted over Barkley if Barkley tears the same thing that Ware did in preseason.  This time last season, Hunt was only being drafted in dynasty leagues.

 

The example of Fournette illustrates my point--as good as he was, he couldn't stay healthy all year and was unable to finish among the top 5.  It's not easy to get through an entire season healthy as a workhorse back, especially as a rookie--and it's definitely not easy to finish among the top 5 for anyone.

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19 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

And Guice will get drafted over Barkley if Barkley tears the same thing that Ware did in preseason.  This time last season, Hunt was only being drafted in dynasty leagues.

 

The example of Fournette illustrates my point--as good as he was, he couldn't stay healthy all year and was unable to finish among the top 5.  It's not easy to get through an entire season healthy as a workhorse back, especially as a rookie--and it's definitely not easy to finish among the top 5 for anyone.

What exactly do you get out of participating in these forums?  You obviously already have your mind made up on all of these players no matter what anyone says to you or statistics the people provide for you.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

What exactly do you get out of participating in these forums?  You obviously already have your mind made up on all of these players no matter what anyone says to you or statistics the people provide for you.

 

The philanthropist in me loves to share the secret knowledge to winning fantasy football leagues with my eager students.

 

Now let's see if you've been an apt student, or loafing in the back of the class, trying to stick pencils in the ceiling tiles.

 

What have I made up my mind about regarding Saquon Barkley?

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9 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

What have I made up my mind about regarding Saquon Barkley?

 

9 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

Saquon Barkley is a poopy head.  I hate him and he's not my friend no more.  I don't care if he gets 400 carries, I'm not drafting him!

 

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11 hours ago, not an nfl scout said:

you said it. it dont matter to who. you compared drafting barkley this year to david wilson in 2012. its what everyone else is kinda getting here too. i just said that there is no comparison in the 2. none. it is a whole different set of circumstances. period. there is nothing the giants have done in their past drafts that even closely resembles what they did taking barkley at 2. and there isnt any other player they have drafted recently that will even compare to the impact barkley will make on this offense. the results will be great for eli. he will make the oline look better. he will open things up in the middle for engram. and he will take a saftey off of beckham for constant doubles. fantastic pick. period. look out for the giants this year. and i'm a cowboy fan.

Look, I don't agree that Barkley will Be the greatest RB to ever play the game on the best team in the history of sports. That's a longshot and a bad gamble imo. YOU said it and don't try to take it back

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Barkley is a high fantasy pick simply because of volume potential regardless of the fanboys who weep over his so called generational talent but if the team sucks so will he. His volume, not his execution is the only thing that is predictable on the new look giant's offense.   I'm ok betting on the volume and i don't think the nyg will be as bad as they were last season. 

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17 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Barkley is a high fantasy pick simply because of volume potential regardless of the fanboys who weep over his so called generational talent but if the team sucks so will he. His volume, not his execution is the only thing that is predictable on the new look giant's offense.   I'm ok betting on the volume and i don't think the nyg will be as bad as they were last season. 

MJD won the rushing title with Blaine Gabbery and Chad Henne.  He doesn't have to suck just because the Giants do.  He'll still catch 55+ passes and get 250+ carries.

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10 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

And yes, the same goes for vets.  We know that probly 4 of them will be in the top 5--but the trick is figuring out which 4.

 

Ya think?

 

Seriously though, we all have a pretty good idea of who they are going to be if everyone stays healthy. We know Lev Bell, Zeke, and Gurley will be up there. It's not a long shot to see David Johnson finishing up there barring an offensive disaster from Zona that hamstrings him this season. 

 

As far as the rookies go, I understand not taking rookie risk, but I won my big league last year with Hunt, the guys who won the year before had Zeke, and a few years back the guy who won the league had Gurley and Yeldon in their rookie years. Rookie have fresh legs, and depending on what teams draft them we can predict their usage fairly easily. It's not crazy to assume that Barkley is going to get a huge workload this year, so if you think he's super talented and in a good situation you can't be knocked grabbing him early or for a high auction price. 

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

MJD won the rushing title with Blaine Gabbery and Chad Henne.  He doesn't have to suck just because the Giants do.  He'll still catch 55+ passes and get 250+ carries.

 

Yeah telling me about henne and mjd is sort of irrelevant because it doesnt support or conclusively proves anything. You may as well say in 19-whatever the gipper was a stud because the galloping ghost tripped over a rock. That's not proof that's just an opinion. Same as my statement about Barkley will suck if the giants suck is an opinion and nothing else. 

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35 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Yeah telling me about henne and mjd is sort of irrelevant because it doesnt support or conclusively proves anything. You may as well say in 19-whatever the gipper was a stud because the galloping ghost tripped over a rock. That's not proof that's just an opinion. Same as my statement about Barkley will suck if the giants suck is an opinion and nothing else. 

It doesn't prove anything? MJD was a top 3 fantasy back with 1600 rushing yards and 11 TD's in an offensive that finished 29th in points per game and 32nd in yards per game.  It literally proves that he doesn't have to suck if the Giants do.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

It doesn't prove anything? MJD was a top 3 fantasy back with 1600 rushing yards and 11 TD's in an offensive that finished 29th in points per game and 32nd in yards per game.  It literally proves that he doesn't have to suck if the Giants do.

 

Sorry mate it doesnt prove a single thing. Here's one for you Jim brown averaged 100yds rushing per game so that means Carlos Hyde can do the same thing too. 

I never understand when guys reach for anecdotal evidence as some sort of statistical certainty to support their opinions.

 

What you are really saying is there is a high probability that barkley won't suck on a bad team and i'm saying there is a high probability that Barkley will suck on a bad team. I'm just not pulling out some irrelevant example as you are to support my opinion. 

When someone uses the term 'suck' it's an entirely subjective descriptor in terms of value. So citing irrelevant stats about another player as a counter proof is an exercise in futility.

You do realize you that in the context of this debate you don't have to 'win' because you are not going to change my opinion. Neither of us will know the outcome until the event is completed. 

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10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Sorry mate it doesnt prove a single thing. Here's one for you Jim brown averaged 100yds rushing per game so that means Carlos Hyde can do the same thing too. 

I never understand when guys reach for anecdotal evidence as some sort of statistical certainty to support their opinions.

 

What you are really saying is there is a high probability that barkley won't suck on a bad team and i'm saying there is a high probability that Barkley will suck on a bad team. I'm just not pulling out some irrelevant example as you are to support my opinion. 

When someone uses the term 'suck' it's an entirely subjective descriptor in terms of value. So citing irrelevant stats about another player as a counter proof is an exercise in futility.

You do realize you that in the context of this debate you don't have to 'win' because you are not going to change my opinion. Neither of us will know the outcome until the event is completed. 

 

You said if the Giants suck, so will Barkley. He gave you factual evidence showing the opposite, where a RB on a bad team had a great season. So yes, that stat did prove that it's a possible outcome...

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3 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

 

You said if the Giants suck, so will Barkley. He gave you factual evidence showing the opposite, where a RB on a bad team had a great season. So yes, that stat did prove that it's a possible outcome...

 

Many things are a possible outcome like you making an NFL team so please lets not play this game. Citing mjd is  irrelevant to my opinion because I used the term SUCK, So I will unpack it for you since you choose to chime in as a supporter of irrelevance.

Define 'suck' in terms of fantasy. 

What is the numerical value of  suck? 

What is the baseline of suck or median or mean?

How does you suck differ from my suck?

What if i don't agree with your definition of suck?

What is your data set for suck, do you have a suck population?

Can you model suck for me or do your modeling skills suck?

 

 

Come on guys stop trying to win the battle of opinions when there is nothing to win. 

Learn how to accept an opinion as an opinion  instead of creating a false construct of meaningless values and examples of why your opinion is more valid.

 Newsflash in terms of 'suck'  your opinion is not valid it SUCKS

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51 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Many things are a possible outcome like you making an NFL team so please lets not play this game. Citing mjd is  irrelevant to my opinion because I used the term SUCK, So I will unpack it for you since you choose to chime in as a supporter of irrelevance.

Define 'suck' in terms of fantasy. 

What is the numerical value of  suck? 

What is the baseline of suck or median or mean?

How does you suck differ from my suck?

What if i don't agree with your definition of suck?

What is your data set for suck, do you have a suck population?

Can you model suck for me or do your modeling skills suck?

 

 

Come on guys stop trying to win the battle of opinions when there is nothing to win. 

Learn how to accept an opinion as an opinion  instead of creating a false construct of meaningless values and examples of why your opinion is more valid.

 Newsflash in terms of 'suck'  your opinion is not valid it SUCKS

Axe Elf?  Is that you?

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6 hours ago, dashoe said:

Barkley is a high fantasy pick simply because of volume potential regardless of the fanboys who weep over his so called generational talent but if the team sucks so will he. His volume, not his execution is the only thing that is predictable on the new look giant's offense.   I'm ok betting on the volume and i don't think the nyg will be as bad as they were last season. 

Argument: "If the team sucks so will he."

Counterargument: "This is not necessarily the case with NFL running backs. He might suck but there is evidence suggesting that a running back can play for a team that sucks and still have not only a good but elite season. For instance, MJD was a top 3 running back on a team that finished 29th in points per game and 32nd in rushing per game. Therefore, it is not necessarily true that if a team sucks their running back will, too."

Counter counterargument: "Define suck."

 

Hahahahaha

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20 minutes ago, egolam said:

when it comes to discussing giants player and team i strongly recommend to put dashoe on ignore. 

 

Cyber is this one of your alias accounts? :lol:

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This guy is going to be a beast there’s nothing else to see here. Either hop on board or miss out big time.

 

another important point.. if you want to win your fantasy league just do the opposite of what axe elf says. That guy craps the bed on every prediction every year. So that basically means Saquon will probably finish #1 overall 

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13 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Look, I don't agree that Barkley will Be the greatest RB to ever play the game on the best team in the history of sports. That's a longshot and a bad gamble imo. YOU said it and don't try to take it back

again i will say....WTF????? are you talking about???? that i didnt say, but whatever. you dont appear to be the type of person to have a stable arguement with because youR statements dont come across as stable either. i'll let you float down the river on your raft.....we'll see who makes it ....me or you

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On 6/24/2018 at 9:42 PM, Axe Elf said:

 

Well, you're not wrong YET.  But you said that IF Barkley doesn't finish among the top 5 RBs, you'd come on here and acknowledge that you were wrong.  I said that I would respect you more if you admitted that you're willing to gamble on Barkley but that there was a high chance that you were wrong before you are axually proven to be wrong--because it's highly unlikely for a rookie RB to finish among the top 5 RBs.

 

 

Hey, I didn't give you that name; I just said that your name is clearly who you are.

yeah ok

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I have Barkley as my #6 RB in .5 ppr right now. I personally want to spend my top pick on an already more established RB. There is a big mental leap from the college game to NFL but RB is probably one of the easier positions for rookies to grasp. 

 

I get whoever wants to take the shot on him because of his talent & opportunity. I’d advise people to look at Eli & their o-line and determine their trust in them when trying to decide. I personally don’t trust Eli that much anymore and could see him struggling, he has seemed to get worse than better with age. And their o-line should improve but still makes me nervous. Bell,DJ,Gurley,Kamara, & Zeke all either have better offensive lines, QB’s, or both (besides DJ but he is a proven freak of nature imo) so I still have those guys above him for those reasons. 

For now anyways :huh:

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