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Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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3 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Is this whatsoever a question?

 

And doesn't it matter who else is there at 7? I've seen this guy drop as far as 7:

david-johnson-jump-cut-2.gif

To be fair if Barkley is there at 7 That means Gurley, Zeke, Elliot, DJ, AB and Hopkins are already gone, provided you play in a semi normal league.

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9 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Is this whatsoever a question?

 

And doesn't it matter who else is there at 7? I've seen this guy drop as far as 7:

david-johnson-jump-cut-2.gif

 

 

Dude DJ is not a MULTI-generational talent, there are no millions of media/blog comparisons to Sanders-AP, he's JAG, not a league winner :lol:

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Dude DJ is not a MULTI-generational talent, there are no millions of media/blog comparisons to Sanders-AP, he's JAG, not a league winner :lol:

 

How did you know I wasn't talking about #84, Gresham?

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10 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

To be fair if Barkley is there at 7 That means Gurley, Zeke, Elliot, DJ, AB and Hopkins are already gone, provided you play in a semi normal league.

 

Not sure if "normal league" isn't something of an oxymoron. 

 

We've all seen the anomalies, we've all seen QBs go in the first round. Doesn't happen a lot (i.e. every league), but happens every year. I've seen Penny go in the mid-first round this month (money league). 

 

I wouldn't begrudge someone for choosing Barkley over AJGreen or DAdams, but I've seen Saquon go before Antonio Brown and that doesn't fly with me.

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On 7/19/2018 at 4:18 AM, RMJ_12 said:

Even Trent Richardson got 318 touches as a rookie.

To reiterate on this point, I just realized Pat Shurmur was Trent Richardson's Head coach in Cleveland that year.  He's now the Giants Head coach.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

To reiterate on this point, I just realized Pat Shurmur was Trent Richardson's Head coach in Cleveland that year.  He's now the Giants Head coach.

 

Yup. Us Barkley truthers realize this as a big reason his floor is so high this year.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Yup. Us Barkley truthers realize this as a big reason his floor is so high this year.

I don't think liking Barkley makes you a "truther."  Typically, that's a contrarian position.  Which Barkley love ain't.

 

With that said, I expect a fabulous season

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4 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

I don't think liking Barkley makes you a "truther."  Typically, that's a contrarian position.  Which Barkley love ain't.

 

With that said, I expect a fabulous season

 

What makes me a truther is that he's my #2 ranked RB this season. That's a little more than the typical Barkley love. 

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28 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

What makes me a truther is that he's my #2 ranked RB this season. That's a little more than the typical Barkley love. 

 

I wouldn’t be suprised if he or any of the top six rbs finished first.  

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3 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

I wouldn’t be suprised if he or any of the top six rbs finished first.  

Exactly. It would be a massive surprise if any rb outside the top 6 finished 1st. In fact it would be a mild surprise imo if more than 1 rb outside the top 6 guys crack the top 5rbs at season end. Top 6 rb this year is big. 

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18 minutes ago, dannyz6969 said:

Are you guys favoring barkley over kamara if both are available at your turn? Assuming the big four are gone?

 

One is Pro  record breaking bowler on a better offense able to put up points at will and has 1 season of experience playing in that system designed to give him limited touches

The other is a rookie playing on  what was a bad offense but who will get a ton of volume as the workhorse.

i'm not willing to make the bet which one outperforms the other this season fantasy wise. I don't think taking one over the other will break your season.  You still have 8 more starting slots to fill

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49 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

Exactly. It would be a massive surprise if any rb outside the top 6 finished 1st. In fact it would be a mild surprise imo if more than 1 rb outside the top 6 guys crack the top 5rbs at season end. Top 6 rb this year is big. 

and yet every season a ridiculous number like 50%  of rb's taken in the first round underperform their draft position

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

I'm not willing to make the bet which one outperforms the other this season fantasy wise. I don't think taking one over the other will break your season.  You still have 8 more starting slots to fill

 

1 hour ago, dashoe said:

and yet every season a ridiculous number like 50% of rb's taken in the first round underperform their draft position

Don't these opinions contradict each other?  Either you think they have bust potential or you don't.  The whole point of taking someone in the 1st round is eliminating as much risk as possible.

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35 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

Don't these opinions contradict each other?  Either you think they have bust potential or you don't.  The whole point of taking someone in the 1st round is eliminating as much risk as possible.

 the 50% bust rate for rb has more to do with inj than production. we cant predict inj so if all 6 are healthy then it wouldnt surprise me who finished #1

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11 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

 the 50% bust rate for rb has more to do with inj than production. we cant predict inj so if all 6 are healthy then it wouldnt surprise me who finished #1

 

Exactly, which is why zero rb/fragility  is such a popular strategy because the top wr's  usually perform near their ADP and have a lower bust rate.

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Exactly, which is why zero rb/fragility  is such a popular strategy because the top wr's  usually perform near their ADP and have a lower bust rate.

Maybe bust rate is slightly lower for wr. Last year this was certainly not the case as Dez, Jordy, Odell and to some extent Mike Evens and Amari all busted while consistently top 10 wrs on draft day.  Zero rb works if you hit on the RBS late. Rb/rb works if you hit on wrs late. Both strategies can work. The safer strategy imo is taking a mix of both in the first several rounds and not gambling on hitting the lottery late.

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20 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

 the 50% bust rate for rb has more to do with inj than production. we cant predict inj so if all 6 are healthy then it wouldnt surprise me who finished #1

A lot of the time, not always.  Last year it was DJ, Ajayi, and Demarco Murray.  1 injury.

 

2016 it was Adrian Peterson, Gurley, Lamar Miller.  Peterson got injured but he was also complete trash before the injury.

 

2015 it was Charles, Lynch, C.J. Anderson, Jeremy Hill.  2 injuries.  2 busts.

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22 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

A lot of the time, not always.  Last year it was DJ, Ajayi, and Demarco Murray.  1 injury.

 

2016 it was Adrian Peterson, Gurley, Lamar Miller.  Peterson got injured but he was also complete trash before the injury.

 

2015 it was Charles, Lynch, C.J. Anderson, Jeremy Hill.  2 injuries.  2 busts.

fair enough i was looking at ppr

you could add in martin 2016 for inj and miller wasnt terrible in 2016 plus he missed 2 games but didnt live up to top 15 pick (but alot of 1st rd wr have years like that that are serviceable aj green, m thomas last year )

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if david johnson is at 7.....that means that barkley has gone in the top 6. if that so be the case, i will push people aside over tables and break bones (not mine) to get to the draft board to pick djohns......this is the way i have my draft mocked. 1 gurley   2 bell    3 elliott    4 brown     5 kamara     6 djohns    7 ME..barkley

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Exactly, which is why zero rb/fragility  is such a popular strategy because the top wr's  usually perform near their ADP and have a lower bust rate.

 

They aren't that much healthier than RBs and have a lower ceiling. That being said it's cyclical...this seems like a year where zero RB could work well.

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34 minutes ago, not an nfl scout said:

if david johnson is at 7.....that means that barkley has gone in the top 6. if that so be the case, i will push people aside over tables and break bones (not mine) to get to the draft board to pick djohns......this is the way i have my draft mocked. 1 gurley   2 bell    3 elliott    4 brown     5 kamara     6 djohns    7 ME..barkley

I mean do you really see them finishing that far apart?  I'd probably take Saquon first too.

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15 hours ago, dannyz6969 said:

Are you guys favoring barkley over kamara if both are available at your turn? Assuming the big four are gone?

yes and the reason why is that in the giant offense i'm assuming barkley will get 20 plus carries and when ingram gets back in 4, he could cut into kamaras work load? i dont see kamara as a workhorse type of rb.

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this is my deduction of the barkley situation in nyg;.....bear with me on this because i'm trying to make an important point in my comparision.   if you will look at any of the "expert" rankings in any league you will see the same thing, bell/brown and barkley/beckham rated in the top 12 or first round of any draft....the only 2 teams in the nfl with this..!!!!!!!   we all know that bell provides for brown and brown for bell. they feed off each other and it makes them both the players they are. ben is not the greatest qb in the world, but very efficient at getting brown the ball when bell can give him the time to work with. pitt has a good oline to help.//// now lets compare what barkley can give to the nyg offense. look at barkleys athletic abilities and you will see an athlete as good as bell if not better. if he can translate that athletic ability into the same running success that bell has had, he can do the same thing for beckham and eli as bell has done for his boys???? beckham and eli compare very well to ben and brown as far as talent and abilities. nyg have put some major capital in improving their oline, so i do NOT see why they cant have the same success fantasy wise as the pitt boys???? this is why i'm so high on barkley. it isnt just putting some blind hope in a new rookie, it is a very thought out and positive comparision to get to my conclusion. look at the facts.

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