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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook


tootallball

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1st round pick of the Patriots at 31st overall.

 

Lots of comps to Alvin Kamara. I think the fact that they Patriots spent a 1st on a running back is very telling and Michel will be used a lot.

 

I see him taking the Dion Lewis role which was 180 carries last year and ~35 receptions. Is that 1000 all purpose yards with 4-8 touchdowns?

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Expectations had me hoping for a better landing spot. Feel like his upside is capped here, but still picture him as a fantasy asset. Patriots have stubborn use of a RBBC but I actually love the fit for the team in a real football sense.

 

As for projections, i can see him in the dion role. Probably not a special teams asset like dion was. Think your going to be very happy some weeks and dissapointed others. I still see the other guys having roles and being involved.

 

Good for real football, not bad for fantasy.

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12 minutes ago, tootallball said:

1st round pick of the Patriots at 31st overall.

 

Lots of comps to Alvin Kamara. I think the fact that they Patriots spent a 1st on a running back is very telling and Michel will be used a lot.

 

I see him taking the Dion Lewis role which was 180 carries last year and ~35 receptions. Is that 1000 all purpose yards with 4-8 touchdowns?

 

Talent is easy to see, but because it's the Patriots, and the Bilichick, it's particularly hard to fathom both usage and success.

 

If Sony shows up late to practice, fumbles at a key moment, or double-takes a look at Giselle at the Brady family barbecue, he might be warming the bench. Remember Jonas Gray? Although some claim he was benched and traded for other reasons, showing up late to practice ain't smart for a spiteful coach. Just sayin'

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First thing i thought of was "how long before he gets benched for fumbling?"      I really like Michel, but I hate the landing spot.    I think maybe next year he gets a full load, but I'm skeptical BB and McDaniels throw tons of volume at him right out of the gate.    Burkhead's getting plenty.  White isn't going anywhere, and somebody, Hill or Gill, is gonna be a redzone guy.    What's left after all that?

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Just now, cohenstantinople said:

 

Talent is easy to see, but because it's the Patriots, and the Bilichick, it's particularly hard to fathom both usage and success.

 

If Sony shows up late to practice, fumbles at a key moment, or double-takes a look at Giselle at the Brady family barbecue, he might be warming the bench. Remember Jonas Gray? Although some claim he was benched and traded for other reasons, showing up late to practice ain't smart for a spiteful coach. Just sayin'

 

The fumbling is a great point here. Michel was one of the more frequent fumblers in this class. Wonder how much he will see belichicks dog house.

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So lets do the math here....

The Pats yearly RBBC rotation

+

A depth chart at Running back which includes, Rex Burkhead, James White, Mike Gillislee, Brandon Bolden and newcomer Jeremy Hill

+

Fumbling issues on a Bill Belichick team

=

 

tenor.gif

 


 

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20 minutes ago, tootallball said:

I see him taking the Dion Lewis role which was 180 carries last year and ~35 receptions. Is that 1000 all purpose yards with 4-8 touchdowns?

 

Worth noting:

- Lewis didn't even take over as lead dog until halfway through the season or so.  And still finished RB12. 

- Pats have had a fantasy RB1 each of the last two years.

- Pats RBs have averaged 21 TDs over the last 5 seasons, with no fewer than 16.  League average in that span is 13.2

 

Michel is a bigger, stronger, faster Dion Lewis.  1st round pick tells me they plan to use him.

 

Underrated: Michel tied with Barkley for best pass-pro RB in college last year.

 

Risk to watch, though: Fumbling history.

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27 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

A depth chart at Running back which includes, Rex Burkhead, James White, Mike Gillislee, Brandon Bolden and newcomer Jeremy Hill

tenor.gif

 

If I were to estimate the value picks on the Patriots' backfield, these based on their current going price and potential use, the Bilichick-adjusted-algorithm yields this order:

 

Jeremy Hill (due 1 million, will most likely not be drafted in fantasy, so he's essentially free in fantasy, and will play when the doghouse fills up)

Rex Burkhead (liked by the Bilichick and may be given the larger share in the RBBC)

James White (will get his 50 receptions, with YAC and YAR up to White)

Sony Michel (welcome to the most crowded committee in the NFL)

Mike Gillislee (due 1.9 million in 2018, possibly reduced to team vulture)

Brandon Bolden (if let go, the Patriots don’t lose much, maybe $170K?)

 

 

 

In re-draft, stay away. In dynasty, trade to the biggest Patriot's fan in your league.

 

giphy.gif

 

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13 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I am very excited by this pick. The Patriots had the steal of the draft. Sony will be the offensive rookie of the year. 

 

I like the optimism, and I'm excited to see him play as a Patriot (less excited to see him on my fantasy team). But I doubt highly that Sony will be rookie of the year, in part because he's one RB in a huge committee, and in part because the Bilichick will look to develop Sony's ball security issues off-field. Consider the comparison:

 

Fumbles in college:

Sony Michel = 12

Fournette = 5

Squanchy Barkley = 4

Zeke = 4

Gurley = 3

Kareem Hunt = 1 (not lost)

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7 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I like the optimism, and I'm excited to see him play as a Patriot (less excited to see him on my fantasy team). But I doubt highly that Sony will be rookie of the year, in part because he's one RB in a huge committee, and in part because the Bilichick will look to develop Sony's ball security issues off-field. Consider the comparison:

 

Fumbles in college:

Sony Michel = 12

 

Fournette = 5

 

Squanchy Barkley = 4

Zeke = 4

 

Gurley = 3

 

Kareem Hunt = 1 (not lost)

 

Ok yes Sony had some fumble issues 

in 2017 Sony fumbles lost 2 

2016 fumbles lost 3 

 

How about these guys 

in 2016 Dalvin Cook had 6 fumbles

Alvin Kamara had 5 fumbles 

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11 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Ok yes Sony had some fumble issues 

in 2017 Sony fumbles lost 2 

2016 fumbles lost 3 

 

How about these guys 

in 2016 Dalvin Cook had 6 fumbles

Alvin Kamara had 5 fumbles 

 

Dalvin cook had 3 fumbles in 16, only lost 1.

Kamara had 2 only lost 1 in 16.

Not sure where those numbers came from.

 

Point is where michel landed. The stubborn use of RBBC and Pats are notorious for putting guys in the dog house after fumbles. Other teams give a little more lee-way usually.

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26 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

How about these guys 

in 2016 Dalvin Cook had 6 fumbles

Alvin Kamara had 5 fumbles 

 

It's ok by me, but I don't make the coaching decisions. The Bilichick's doghouse has plenty of room, and oftentimes it's a one-way trip...

tenor.gif?itemid=4954758

 

It is always watching

N0wsjVE.gif

 

That said, drafting Sony was a team decision and the Bilichick has the biggest share in the decision-making process. We all see talent in Sony, it's just a matter of how Bill will use him, if Sony fumbles, and how Bill will look to work with him and guide his development off-field. My two cents.

 

 

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Wondering what the ADP here is.    I'm tempered on him for reasons already stated by me and others.......but here's the thing.   When you get far enough along, why bother with guys like Isaiah Crowell or Lamar Miller that have such low ceilings.  If Michel lasts far enough, his breakout potential, arguable as to how probable is to hit it, has to make him worth that risk.

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4 hours ago, shakestreet said:

I am very excited by this pick. The Patriots had the steal of the draft. Sony will be the offensive rookie of the year. 

Steal?   He was projected to be drafted @ that spot, Chubb will be a steal

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4 hours ago, shakestreet said:

I am very excited by this pick. The Patriots had the steal of the draft. Sony will be the offensive rookie of the year. 

 

I'd suggest that Sony would certainly lead the league in rookie fumbles, but there's no way the Bilichick will let Sony play if he fumbles more than once.

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