Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Sony Michel 2018 Outlook


tootallball

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Dirtywater97 said:

Wasn't Kamara stuck in a 3 headed committee to start the year and ridiculously underrated because people were worried about his usage.... ?.

 

Sounds like I'll be having shares in all my leagues.

Totally agree.  All this negativity surrounding a player that many had ranked as the #2 RB in this draft class after Saquon that was just taken in rd 1 by NE - a team that had some major defensive issues in 2017, which didn't use either of their two 1st rd picks on an impact def player.  This is just a long way of saying that the Pats didn't take this guy to sit him.  He's going to play plenty in 2018 and I will be targeting him aggressively.  The comp to the Kamara situation is fitting (i.e. suppressed ADP because everyone worried about Ingram and AP).

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Steal?   He was projected to be drafted @ that spot, Chubb will be a steal

You just wait.

 

4 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

Dalvin cook had 3 fumbles in 16, only lost 1.

Kamara had 2 only lost 1 in 16.

Not sure where those numbers came from.

 

Point is where michel landed. The stubborn use of RBBC and Pats are notorious for putting guys in the dog house after fumbles. Other teams give a little more lee-way usually.

 my fumble numbers look better for just because. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, BrianM said:

First thing i thought of was "how long before he gets benched for fumbling?"      I really like Michel, but I hate the landing spot.    I think maybe next year he gets a full load, but I'm skeptical BB and McDaniels throw tons of volume at him right out of the gate.    Burkhead's getting plenty.  White isn't going anywhere, and somebody, Hill or Gill, is gonna be a redzone guy.    What's left after all that?

 

Wow...probably the most underrated fantasy relevant point made here. May be wise to pickup Burkhead cheap right now.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Wow...probably the most underrated fantasy relevant point made here. May be wise to pickup Burkhead cheap right now.

 

Hill is even cheaper. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

True, but Hill isn't guaranteed to make the roster -- only 150k of his contract is guaranteed, I believe.

 

I'd guess Hill replaces Gillislee and Michele, Lewis.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Patriots backfield had 413 standard fantasy points last year.  Lewis led the group with 165.  He didn't break 10 touches until week 6. 

For comparison the Saints had 459 points from Kamara (233) and Ingram (226), which easily paced the league. 

Point is: Pats backfield scores a lot of points. 

 

Patriots have produced a fantasy RB1 each of the last two years. Lewis was RB4 in 2015 before the ACL.

Point is: Pick the right RB, and you'll get a lot of points.

 

Picking the right one is hard. 

ADP last year: Gilly > Rex > Lewis. 

Final point totals: Lewis > Rex > Gilly. 

Blount was a 8th rounder the year before. 

I don't include White because he will never be more than a receiving back at this point.  His role is locked into 3rd downs like Bolden's is locked into special teams. 

Point is: The Patriots RB Carousel is known to be confusing and frustrating. 

 

But I don't think it's too confusing this year.  Here are a couple things that we know.

1) Belichick runs in the red zone more than any other team.  Their running backs have averaged 21 touchdowns over the last 5 seasons, and never scored less than 16.  The league average is 13.2.

2) Belichick prefers a versatile lead RB if the last 3 years are any indication.  He doesn't want to tip his playcalling hand if he doesn't have to.  Rex Burkhead got the start for the Patriots in Week 1 because he is versatile.  Then he got hurt.  Then Lewis took over, and ran away with the starting job. There was a Gilly blip in there, more on that in a minute.

 

If you follow rules 1 and 2, you can guess who the guy's gonna be. 

2016: Lewis was unavailable, recovering from his 2015 ACL (and we remember how good Lewis was in 2015, don't we?).  Their roster was Blount, White, and Bolden.  Of course Blount was gonna mop up TDs.  But 2016 was an anomaly because of roster conditions.

2017:  Rex started, and Gilly did steal goal line, but only Weeks 1 and 2.  No Pat RB scored a rush TD Week 3 v Hou.  Lewis scored his first in Week 4 (Rex hurt by now).  Gilly was never seen again.  I just view Weeks 1 and 2 with Gilly as an audition period for Bill's new acquisitions, him working out how he wants to use people.  We saw quickly that Gilly had no role as long as Lewis was functional.  Lewis went on to an RB12 overall finish despite minimal work early on.

 

Pick the guy who you think will get the majority of red zone looks for the Patriots.  It's probably the guy with the Lewis role -- the 14 carries, 4 receptions, versatile lead back.  Power up the gut and mismatches on linebackers in the passing game.  They lost Dion Lewis, and spent a 1st round pick on Sony Michel.  Oh and I guess they gave a $1M deal to Jeremy Hill.  I wonder which one of those guys has the best chance to replace Lewis?  We can say with near certainty that Michel will leader this back field.  The leader has a good chance to finish as an RB1.

 

Rex Burkhead is a guy I want to draft late in case Michel is hurt, or is benched for fumbling, or hasn't earned the starter job by week 1.  He's Michel's real competition, because he's the only other guy who fits the Lewis mold.  Michel will prove superior to Burkhead in short time though.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree with the above as well. I think this backfield will ultimately come down to Burkhead and Michel while White still catches his 50 balls for the year. Even with some rotations I think Michel will be the unquestioned lead back with Burkhead filling in strategically and stealing some red zone like last year. Overall though, plenty of fantasy points to be had from the NE backfield and Michel is the best RB on the roster. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm probably buying into Sony Michel 100% come draft time. He is a talented back, the Patriots have an obvious good offense and I seriously doubt they would spend a 1st round pick on an rotational RB. Hopefully people will be a little scared off because of the Patriots RB syndrome so he drops cause I want shares of Sony in all my leagues.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Belichick understands capital and players value in relation to the cap. It's why the Patriots have been so dominant with so many moving roster pieces over an unprecedented length of time. That being said he recognizes the direction the NFL offense is going in which is exploiting the Running Back v Linebacker match up (see Kamara and the saints) Belichick exploited the same matchup first with the TE position. 

 

With that type of draft capital, the opportunity the patriots' offense allows, and Sony's talent his upside is undeniable. If fears of fumbling and RBBC push his ADP past the 6-7th round you gotta bet on his upside.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MilkSteakandjellybeans said:

Belichick understands capital and players value in relation to the cap. It's why the Patriots have been so dominant with so many moving roster pieces over an unprecedented length of time. That being said he recognizes the direction the NFL offense is going in which is exploiting the Running Back v Linebacker match up (see Kamara and the saints) Belichick exploited the same matchup first with the TE position. 

 

With that type of draft capital, the opportunity the patriots' offense allows, and Sony's talent his upside is undeniable. If fears of fumbling and RBBC push his ADP past the 6-7th round you gotta bet on his upside.

 

If he's there in the 5th you draft him without thinking about it.

 

Agree whole heartedly with the rest of your analysis.  League got taller and faster on defense to counteract WRs, so RB mismatches are coming in vogue.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yupp, and eventually as LBs get quicker and more athletic to match up with RBs (also smaller), I think the league will eventually transition back to power football and pounding the ball and emphasis on running games to counteract that.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

6th round seems fine with me.   I dont think he gets a lot of touches right out of the gate- just my thinking that NE is patient and he has to earn trust/share.  Once he does get there, I think he easily outshines the other backs on the roster.   Its just going to be a patient ride, might take a few months.   

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, GhostOfCap said:

Michel or McKinnon in dynasty?

 

McKinnon. Elite athlete, top-15 RB last year (and top-10 the final 6 games of 2016 as well), and won't get benched the first time he fumbles. 

 

If you choose a NE RB high, you get what you deserve.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Love the player. Definitely has the chance to transcend the restrictions of the offense. Probably the most talented back in NE since Martin, maybe since Dillon's first year.

 

That said, the Patriots aren't going to give him the ball based upon draft status or name, and James White has a role locked down as much as anyone in the league. Typically, you'll do okay just drafting whomever falls among the NE backs in the mix. Late flier on Burkhead seems reasonable, for instance.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎5‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 12:42 PM, GhostOfCap said:

Michel or McKinnon in dynasty?

I think Michel is the choice, but it has to be at the right value. Picking Michel means looking to the future, because I don't think Michel gets the desired workload until Belichick is gone. And I expect Belichick gone after the 2018 season.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, devaster said:

I think Michel is the choice, but it has to be at the right value. Picking Michel means looking to the future, because I don't think Michel gets the desired workload until Belichick is gone. And I expect Belichick gone after the 2018 season.

Belichick runs the Patriots' draft.  And Belichick picked Sony in the 1st round after losing a similar player, Dion Lewis, in free agency.  Why would we have to wait until Belichick is gone to see Michel on the field, toting the rock?

Link to post
Share on other sites

If anything I think Michel's value is higher this year than it is in the future.  Brady and Bill may be gone soon.  Then who knows what the Pats look like.  Who knows if they even re-sign Michel after his rookie deal.  He could wind up on a new team.  Stock is super high now, but long term has more question marks.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Michel & Chubb will be a lesson in knowing the guys in your room.  If your league has a Georgia fan in it or even SEC guys, you're going to have to reach for either running back.  They're likable, work hard, and explosive.  

 

We'll be seeing a lot of jazz hands the next several years.  

 

 

.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...