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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook


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1 minute ago, purpdrankplaya said:

Anyone think New England go run heavy in this game? I know they use all of their running backs but I could see Sony having a good game this week due to Buffalo struggling against the position.

 

Cannot trust this guy for 3 reasons:

Rex Burkhead

James Devlin

Tom Brady

 

Should I start you this week Sony?

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If there's any chance of Michel turning in a big performance, it'd be this week.  Buffalo gives up quite a bit of points to RB's (TD's too) but the whole committee situation scares me.  Burkhead doesn't scare me as much as the emergence of Devlin snaking those GL touches.  With Burkhead stealing the 2-3 pass targets Michel would normally have he becomes largely dependent on TD's. 

 

In PPR leagues I've been fading him just because the floor has been lowered to the point where he's never truly a safe start.  I really want to play him this week because I think it's possible he nears 100 yards, but the lack of GL carries makes me fearful.  I could easily go for a guy like McGuire who will get some PPR love and does get GL carries even though he's an inferior talent. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Newtown said:

 

Cannot trust this guy for 3 reasons:

Rex Burkhead

James Devlin

Tom Brady

 

Should I start you this week Sony?

giphy.gif

 

I mean whether you start a guy or not really depends on what your alternatives are. I wouldn't feel confident in starting Michel either but there aren't too many trustworthy running backs. I can't find myself ranking Michel outside the top 24 at the RB position this week which I think gives him a good chance to be in some lineups. His downside is low but its not really any lower than any of the other RBs in the back-end of the top 24. He does however, have a higher upside than a lot of those guys given he is in an offense that has proven to be elite not long ago with largely the same team, his volume is better than a lot of those guys, I think he has proven to be more talented than a lot of those guys and he has a pretty favorable matchup. Michel just might be a necessary evil for many owners especially if you missed out on McGuire and J. Williams (2 guys I'd probably start over him that many claimed off waivers recently, the KC situation is hard to predict so I wouldn't necessarily prefer one of them unless Ware is ruled out beforehand). 

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31 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

I mean whether you start a guy or not really depends on what your alternatives are. I wouldn't feel confident in starting Michel either but there aren't too many trustworthy running backs. I can't find myself ranking Michel outside the top 24 at the RB position this week which I think gives him a good chance to be in some lineups. His downside is low but its not really any lower than any of the other RBs in the back-end of the top 24. He does however, have a higher upside than a lot of those guys given he is in an offense that has proven to be elite not long ago with largely the same team, his volume is better than a lot of those guys, I think he has proven to be more talented than a lot of those guys and he has a pretty favorable matchup. Michel just might be a necessary evil for many owners especially if you missed out on McGuire and J. Williams (2 guys I'd probably start over him that many claimed off waivers recently, the KC situation is hard to predict so I wouldn't necessarily prefer one of them unless Ware is ruled out beforehand). 

 

You are right. One's options are certainly a factor. But I made the comment under the premise that a person has 1 or 2 comparable options. If you have zero options you start him over a zero. If you have a comparable option, I would lean against trusting Sony. At this time of the year, in the fantasy playoffs. I believe opportunity trumps talent. Sony could have a great game against Buffalo, but I just don't trust his opportunity. I love Kenyan Drake's and Mark Ingram's talent, but hate their opportunities.

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3 minutes ago, Newtown said:

 

You are right. One's options are certainly a factor. But I made the comment under the premise that a person has 1 or 2 comparable options. If you have zero options you start him over a zero. If you have a comparable option, I would lean against trusting Sony. At this time of the year, in the fantasy playoffs. I believe opportunity trumps talent. Sony could have a great game against Buffalo, but I just don't trust his opportunity. I love Kenyan Drake's and Mark Ingram's talent, but hate their opportunities.

 

Yeah I kind of feel you I'd start inferior talents (like J. Williams and McGuire) over him due to less competition/better opportunity. A guy like Drake I don't think I'd start over Michel (although I don't think its unreasonable to) and I'd say I could go either way with Michel vs. Ingram. Michel has the better matchup and track record this season although Ingram's receptions probably gives him a higher floor. Michel is still a top 24 RB for me though which would technically make him a RB2 so I think he'd at least be in consideration for the flex spot on a decent number of teams. 

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20 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

Yeah I kind of feel you I'd start inferior talents (like J. Williams and McGuire) over him due to less competition/better opportunity. A guy like Drake I don't think I'd start over Michel (although I don't think its unreasonable to) and I'd say I could go either way with Michel vs. Ingram. Michel has the better matchup and track record this season although Ingram's receptions probably gives him a higher floor. Michel is still a top 24 RB for me though which would technically make him a RB2 so I think he'd at least be in consideration for the flex spot on a decent number of teams. 

 

To me, Michel's track record is his last four games with Burkhead healthy, Devlin's GL carries and Patterson as an option (albeit a less likely one). Those factors did not exist earlier in the season. For me he'd be just under the top 24 behind guys like Edwards and McGuire and slightly above Ballage in standard. But if you are considering starting Sony, you have to love his carries over the last 4 games, even though he has been trending down lately.

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40 minutes ago, Newtown said:

 

You are right. One's options are certainly a factor. But I made the comment under the premise that a person has 1 or 2 comparable options. If you have zero options you start him over a zero. If you have a comparable option, I would lean against trusting Sony. At this time of the year, in the fantasy playoffs. I believe opportunity trumps talent. Sony could have a great game against Buffalo, but I just don't trust his opportunity. I love Kenyan Drake's and Mark Ingram's talent, but hate their opportunities.

 

As an owner of both Drake and Ingram, this hurts too much.  You're right, though.  I haven't used either in a few weeks because they don't get consistent enough touches to rely on.  Last week I rolled with Damien Williams and Elijah McGuire over Michel/Ingram/Drake because I knew they'd actually touch the ball.  It had nothing to do with talent. 

 

The one curious part of this equation is that Michel still gets his touches, but his removal from the passing game really hurts his floor value.

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Will be interesting to see how Sony is valued in 2019 rankings/drafts.

 

He's a bit tough to get comfortable with as a weekly start just because of his lack of passing game usage.  Basically, he's only a good start in games where HE is favored and your expecting the'll run the ball a lot.  James White just never seems to go away lol.

 

Thing is though...I feel like Sony could be a capable receiver and they haven't really tapped those talents yet.  There could be some upside here next year.

 

Not sure how I'll approach him.  I've rarely had good luck taking NE RB's early in drafts.

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Just speculation, 

 

But if the patriots crap out this year, this team gets a huge overhaul. It can be argued that in college receiving was a strength of Michels. I can see them moving on from White and letting a 60/40 combo of Michel and Burkhead handle the reps. If Michel is getting 60% of the work and the is a threat out of the backfield he could be a nice 2019 player. 

 

The patriots need to get out of the when White is in the game we throw, when Sony's in the game we run mindset. It was fine when TB was elite. But it certainly looks like father time is catching up and that can't help the pats. 

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41 minutes ago, mpat15 said:

Just speculation, 

 

But if the patriots crap out this year, this team gets a huge overhaul. It can be argued that in college receiving was a strength of Michels. I can see them moving on from White and letting a 60/40 combo of Michel and Burkhead handle the reps. If Michel is getting 60% of the work and the is a threat out of the backfield he could be a nice 2019 player. 

 

The patriots need to get out of the when White is in the game we throw, when Sony's in the game we run mindset. It was fine when TB was elite. But it certainly looks like father time is catching up and that can't help the pats. 

 

I'm gonna give some insight as a Pats fan. Rex Burkhead is painfully average and needs to go. James White is too good at receiving to get rid of and can still occasionally break off a nice run. Sony absolutely needs to get more involved in the passing game and become like a 70/40 guy with White. Sony being a telegraphed run play right now is not good at all. White being a telegraphed pass is even worse. Rex Burkhead being a telegraphed "who cares its Rex Brukhead" is painful.

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I really like Michel this week.

 

When the Patriots commit to the run, and Michel is out there....he's gonna eat asides from gimmick plays. But yeah...there's always that risk that someone else vultures his TD. What can ya do?

 

Right now, I have him above Chubb and Mixon this week, just because of the matchup.

 

 

 

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