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Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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3 hours ago, petekrum said:

 

Hes nowhere near the best RB in the class, but it is the Browns who thought Mayfield was the best QB so the stupidity bar is set pretty high.

 

it's coming out post draft that alot of teams had Mayfield as the top QB on their board. Says to me that the traditional profile of a NFL QB is shifting

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

it's coming out post draft that alot of teams had Mayfield as the top QB on their board. Says to me that the traditional profile of a NFL QB is shifting

 

A lot of boards had Leaf over Manning too. 

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1 minute ago, petekrum said:

 

A lot of boards had Leaf over Manning too. 

The point is that the Browns weren't alone in their evaluation, as you seemed to be implying.  It certainly wasn't an objectively stupid pick, and citing an exception like Ryan Leaf doesn't help your argument- if anything, he's just another example of the QB position being difficult to evaluate.

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I wish Chubb would have slipped one more pick to the Colts at 36. We would have been talking about him as a potential feature back behind a revamped OL and a likely mid-round redraft pick. Instead, he gets the Browns with a murky RB corps and an unproven offense who figures to be in catch-up mode 90% of the season. 

 

A dart throw in redraft right now for me, but I'm slightly more optimistic for dynasty if the Browns show some significant improvement this season.

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31 minutes ago, Felicia's Bye said:

The point is that the Browns weren't alone in their evaluation, as you seemed to be implying.  It certainly wasn't an objectively stupid pick, and citing an exception like Ryan Leaf doesn't help your argument- if anything, he's just another example of the QB position being difficult to evaluate.

 

Its gonna end up being a really stupid pick

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34 minutes ago, Felicia's Bye said:

The point is that the Browns weren't alone in their evaluation, as you seemed to be implying.

 

There are a lot of dumb teams though.  Bills traded up to take Allen when Rosen was available.  Giants who need QB took RB.

 

A flat earther isn't alone in their evaluation that the earth is flat, but just because dummies have company doesn't make them not dummies.

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Right now I see Chubb as a late round type dart throw with the way things are. Carlos Hyde is a very good RB and as long as he stays healthy I don't see him just "going away". As mentioned the Browns will still probably be playing catch up most of the year. Duke Johnson excels in that role. So what's left for Chubb? Not a whole lot. Even if Hyde gets injured like he usually tends to do, we saw last year that the 2 down feature back (Crowell) for the Browns still wasn't all that valuable. I think Chubb is a better talent than Crowell, but it's hard to run the ball when you're constantly behind. And Hyde finally put together a full season last year. No thanks in the early rounds for Chubb in re draft as things stand right now. 

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3 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

There are a lot of dumb teams though.  Bills traded up to take Allen when Rosen was available.  Giants who need QB took RB.

 

A flat earther isn't alone in their evaluation that the earth is flat, but just because dummies have company doesn't make them not dummies.

Says the guy who thinks the earth is round.  Sheep I tell you, sheep!

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He isn't better than Duke Johnson at Duke Johnson things, and he won't ever be.

 

Are we certain he's better at Carlos Hyde things than Carlos Hyde? Hyde has been consistently good when healthy (big caveat) at the NFL level. Chubb, post-injury, has sometimes looked like a plodder.

 

I think he's something like an eighth round pick in standard. I'll take a QB.

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I think this was a good real-life move for the browns.  Hyde has shown that he has durability issues, and even if he didn't, running backs get hurt.  Spreading the grind between Hyde and Chubb isn't a bad idea.

 

That said, I want no part of this backfield in fantasy.

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On 4/30/2018 at 11:26 AM, Fort4242 said:

"Right now I see Chubb as a late round type dart throw with the way things are. Carlos Hyde is a very good RB and as long as he stays healthy I don't see him just "going away". As mentioned the Browns will still probably be playing catch up most of the year. ... it's hard to run the ball when you're constantly behind..." 

 

Could be that they went big on depth at RB because they anticipate playing Mayfield. If Mayfield struggles when the game is still in the balance, I don't think it makes sense to put more on him once they fall behind and the defense is coming downhill. Acting like they're in contention to win the SB is stupid. If it's Mayfield, I think the RBs will be more valuable, the WRs, less so. Not to dispute what you said, but it's actually easier to run the ball & the short game in general when you're down by three scores.     

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More so for the offense as a whole, rather than just Chubb, Hue Jackson's recent comments that Todd Haley will have complete autonomy to run the offense is probably the most important data point I've seen or heard so far regarding Cleveland.  While Haley sucked in his one stint as a HC (KC), his two stints as an OC were impressive (AZ and Pitt).  Haley has plenty of weapons to utilize in Cleveland as well.  

 

If Jackson is really going to stay out of the way, I believe Cleveland may shatter the deep seated recency bias that devalues all Browns assets.  With Hyde and Johnson there though, what that means for Chubb is anyone's guess.

 

 

 

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Love the talent, hate the situation. He’s not necessarily a DND for me, but since I live in Cleveland and am in a lot of leagues with Browns homers I’m sure I’ll have no shares of him since Cleveland fans will reach for him. Pass. 

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9 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

More so for the offense as a whole, rather than just Chubb, Hue Jackson's recent comments that Todd Haley will have complete autonomy to run the offense is probably the most important data point I've seen or heard so far regarding Cleveland.  While Haley sucked in his one stint as a HC (KC), his two stints as an OC were impressive (AZ and Pitt).  Haley has plenty of weapons to utilize in Cleveland as well.  

 

If Jackson is really going to stay out of the way, I believe Cleveland may shatter the deep seated recency bias that devalues all Browns assets.  With Hyde and Johnson there though, what that means for Chubb is anyone's guess.

 

 

 

 

It means the payoff is likely in 2019 unless Chubb shows that freshman year burst in training camp. 

 

Haley is overrated.  Better than Hue but overrated.

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7 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

It means the payoff is likely in 2019 unless Chubb shows that freshman year burst in training camp. 

 

Haley is overrated.  Better than Hue but overrated.

 

Why is Haley overrated?  He made the most of his substantial assets with the Steelers.  

 

His other stint as an OC before that was with AZ in 2008.  That year, AZ tied for third in the league in scoring, registering a franchise-record 427 points (26.7 ppg).  AZ was fourth in total offense, averaging 365.8 yards per game.  AZ was second in the league in passing offense (292.1 ypg).

 

I don't pretend to know Haley that well, but from what I can glean from a little research suggests that he may be one of the better OCs around.  Why should we doubt him in Cleveland?  He has a lot to work with it seems to me, and his resume as an OC (not HC) looks rather good.

 

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16 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

It means the payoff is likely in 2019 unless Chubb shows that freshman year burst in training camp. 

 

Haley is overrated.  Better than Hue but overrated.

 

Nick Chubb has already shown his freshman year burst is back. 

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8 hours ago, boltup15 said:

 

Nick Chubb has already shown his freshman year burst is back. 

 

No it's not. 

 

I know what the combine numbers say.

 

But watch film of him his freshman year and watch film of last year and you see he's only 85 to 90% of what he was then. 

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17 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Why is Haley overrated?  He made the most of his substantial assets with the Steelers.  

 

His other stint as an OC before that was with AZ in 2008.  That year, AZ tied for third in the league in scoring, registering a franchise-record 427 points (26.7 ppg).  AZ was fourth in total offense, averaging 365.8 yards per game.  AZ was second in the league in passing offense (292.1 ypg).

 

I don't pretend to know Haley that well, but from what I can glean from a little research suggests that he may be one of the better OCs around.  Why should we doubt him in Cleveland?  He has a lot to work with it seems to me, and his resume as an OC (not HC) looks rather good.

 

 

Short answer-

 

Pitt had as good a collection of offensive talent including offensive line that you'll ever see in the salary cap era last year yet didn't lead the NFL in scoring.  They should have and really they should have been top 10 all time.  Given their talent level they underachieved.

 

Slightly longer answer -

 

If you go back and look at how he approached different opponents in specific matchups or in specific situations you see he makes poor calls given the opponent and game situation.  A few quick examples.

 

Vs KC - instead of running the ball to kill the clock he decides to have Ben chuck it.  It should be a game losing pick but instead becomes a miracle AB highlight TD.

 

Vs Jax 1st game- continues to chuck it with Ben despite him turning the ball over left and right instead of feeding Bell vs the (at the time) shaky Jax run D.

 

Vs Jax second game - those 4th and calls were pathetic.  Why are you running wide on a speed based team?  And why are you throwing to the rookie on 4th and one rather than feeding AB or Bell on the second 4th and 1? 

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2 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

No it's not. 

 

I know what the combine numbers say.

 

But watch film of him his freshman year and watch film of last year and you see he's only 85 to 90% of what he was then. 

 

I tend to agree when watching film, but he has taken a big step forward every year since the injury. It wouldnt surprise me to see him continue to get back into freshman form. The combine numbers were just more proof hes continuing to progress.

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8 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

I tend to agree when watching film, but he has taken a big step forward every year since the injury. It wouldnt surprise me to see him continue to get back into freshman form. The combine numbers were just more proof hes continuing to progress.

 

Agreed.

 

If the Chubb we see now is all there is that's still potentially an excellent player. But freshman Chubb was unreal.

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3 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

No it's not. 

 

I know what the combine numbers say.

 

But watch film of him his freshman year and watch film of last year and you see he's only 85 to 90% of what he was then. 

 

I have. It’s back. His burst is rediculous. Just look at the one play against OU. His acceleration is top notch. 

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