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Jose Suarez - SP LAA


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Was there really not a thread about him until now? Wow. My dude's numbers this year are insane. 

 

Between 2 starts in A+ and 7 starts in AA this year...

 

38.2 IP, 0 home runs, 9 walks, 69 strikeouts

 

His FIP is sub-1.00.

 

He's 20 years old.

 

There needs to be way more hype around him.

 

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He’s 5’10” and. Has three pro seasons under his belt and yet to eclipse 100 ip. Can’t deny the very sexy numbers and he’s surely a pickup in a deep minors league, but he has some questions to answer. I’m not overly excited yet. The good news is he’s in AA so it’s not too long of a wait and find out.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

He’s 5’10” and. Has three pro seasons under his belt and yet to eclipse 100 ip. Can’t deny the very sexy numbers and he’s surely a pickup in a deep minors league, but he has some questions to answer. I’m not overly excited yet. The good news is he’s in AA so it’s not too long of a wait and find out.

 

Aside from the height, sure. There was nothing sexy about his track record coming into the year. But at some point, the numbers speak for themselves when they are this dominant.

 

I think he's worth considering in any league in which every team owns a few prospects.

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1 hour ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

 But at some point, the numbers speak for themselves when they are this dominant.

 

 

 

Totally agree with that statement but 29 AA innings is not the point for me.

 

Theres quite a few pitchers in the minors who dominate in short stints and most of them won’t even be decent mlb starters.

 

even looking at his game log he as one start over 5ip and it’s 5.1.

 

Should be owned in  leagues where every team owns a few prospects? So in a 12 teamer you’re saying he’s a top 36 Fantasy prospect right now? I’ll sell that statement.

 

im not saying he won’t be a star, because I don’t know, but I’m not that giddy yet. He should be owned in deep minors leagues only still.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Totally agree with that statement but 29 AA innings is not the point for me.

 

Theres quite a few pitchers in the minors who dominate in short stints and most of them won’t even be decent mlb starters.

 

even looking at his game log he as one start over 5ip and it’s 5.1.

 

Should be owned in  leagues where every team owns a few prospects? So in a 12 teamer you’re saying he’s a top 36 Fantasy prospect right now? I’ll sell that statement.

 

im not saying he won’t be a star, because I don’t know, but I’m not that giddy yet. He should be owned in deep minors leagues only still.

 

 

 

 

 

I'd think he should be owned in 100 prospect leagues.

 

He has one plus pitch and above average command.   He's only 20 and his stuff is still improving.

 

Adjusting for age,  what's the difference between him and Paddack?

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13 minutes ago, I like baseball said:

I think it's a little weird you're giddy about Swanson and not Suarez, brock.  I think not only does Suarez have a higher ceiling, he has a better chance at actually remaining a starter.

Could be true. In no way would I bet anything substantial that Swanson will be a better sp than suarez. Could go either way.  I also agree that if you want to reap rewards you need to speculate early. I'm just concerned he might not have the body to endure a big workload of a season combined with the fact that he isn't going deep into games yet. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm certainly not confident about speculating on non elite minor league pitchers.

 

Jose berrios is considered somewhat short and electric by sp standards. He's 2 inches taller and looking at his age 19-20 seasons I'm seems my a while lot of deep inning games.

 

What do we need to see from a short pitcher to project sp success? Genuinely asking? @garlando @JenksDodger?

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14 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

Adjusting for age,  what's the difference between him and Paddack?

 

The difference is the quality of the whole repertoire, simply taking a look at scouting reports tells you that Paddack is a step ahead of Suarez:

Fastball: Suarez sits 91, will touch 93. Paddack sits 92-95
Curveball: Suarez has a humpback curve that is fringey and projects to average, Paddack has improved his curve as it has more depth and bite and Fangraphs has it projected for a future 55.
Changeup: Suarez has a good changeup that fools hitters with a convincing arm action and release point that is super similar to his fastball and it projects to a future 60. Paddack's changeup has a convincing arm action and great tumble and it routinely gets 65-70 future grades.
Add in similar command and they look similar but there's a clear level above that Paddack is projected to reach according to scouting reports.

@brockpapersizer asked me about him earlier in the season to get my take, and so I thought I'd share what I wrote:

Quote

 My understanding is he's an advanced lefty with a good changeup and control and that has allowed him to carve up lower level hitters. He saw an uptick in velocity last year into the low 90's and that lets his plus changeup play even better! Curveball is a step behind but he can throw it for strikes and is a nice change up pace offering even at this stage in its development. His repertoire looks awfully similar to a guy like Marco Estrada, except Suarez gets way more GBs instead of FBs. Looking at the numbers, you can't help but be impressed for Suarez, he had the 3rd best swinging-strike rate in the Midwest League with an 18.2% mark among those pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, ahead of top prospect Forrest Whitley (16.1%) who was also 19 in the same league last year. And among the top 25 in Swinging-strike rate in that league last year, he had the 2nd highest HR/FB rate so you could easily make the argument that he was unlucky last year and that is supported by his FIP and xFIP being so strong at 3.66 and 2.84 respectively. So he's getting tons of swings and misses, he leans groundball in terms of contact against, and has above-average control/command...there's a lot to like here! He may just be more advanced than the hitters he's facing right now but the numbers suggest he has everything you look for! He's been dominating the CAL league so far which isn't an easy place to pitch so you have to give him credit!

 I do have some slight concerns about Suarez's ability to do well with his fastball as he moves up the minor league ladder. Fangraphs agrees saying, "there’s concern about how the fastball will play as he reaches the upper levels, as there is about every command/changeup lefty who doesn’t throw hard, but lots of those guys work out."  So it will be interesting to see how he does going forward, especially when he gets to AA but early returns in the CAL league (A+) are very strong! It should be noted that command/changeup guys are generally fast movers as they often carve up lower level hitters because lower level hitters rarely see quality changeups and command up to that point.

 

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6 minutes ago, garlando said:

The difference is the quality of the whole repertoire, simply taking a look at scouting reports tells you that Paddack is a step ahead of Suarez:

Fastball: Suarez sits 91, will touch 93. Paddack sits 92-95
Curveball: Suarez has a humpback curve that is fringey and projects to average, Paddack has improved his curve as it has more depth and bite and Fangraphs has it projected for a future 55.
Changeup: Suarez has a good changeup that fools hitters with a convincing arm action and release point that is super similar to his fastball and it projects to a future 60. Paddack's changeup has a convincing arm action and great tumble and it routinely gets 65-70 future grades.
Add in similar command and they look similar but there's a clear level above that Paddack is projected to reach according to scouting reports.

@brockpapersizer asked me about him earlier in the season to get my take, and so I thought I'd share what I wrote:

 

 

Paddack should be ahead of Suarez.  Suarez is almost exactly two years younger than Paddack.  I'm not convinced that he's done adding velocity and arm speed which would help improve the FB/CB grades.

 

Not sure it'll help him make up the CU gap though.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Paddack should be ahead of Suarez.  Suarez is almost exactly two years younger than Paddack.  I'm not convinced that he's done adding velocity and arm speed which would help improve the FB/CB grades.

 

 

Not saying that he won't going forward, but scouting reports I've read suggest he's pretty maxed out physically. Here's the quote from Fangraphs:

Quote

Suarez is a squat, maxed-out, 5-foot-10 lefty with plus changeup projection and advanced command.

Suarez has a chance to have a plus changeup, above-average command, and average everything else, which would make him a No. 4/5 starter.

 

I'm projecting him in the mold of a Marco Estrada type guy except groundball oriented rather than flyball...but the repertoire seems awfully similar.

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14 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

What do we need to see from a short pitcher to project sp success? Genuinely asking? @garlando @JenksDodger?

 

I've said this before, but height isn't a big deal for me as we have seen smaller starters succeed before. As long as he has the stuff and performs, I could care less about height. I'm still looking for the same thing that I always look for in pitching prospects which is multiple ways to get through a lineup. I'm a big believer in a true out pitch being necessary, and Suarez has that in his changeup and he's been getting lots of swings and misses with at a crazy 17.4% swinging-strike rate (MLB average right now is about 10.6%) at AA in 29.2 innings pitched! From there, 2 more 50-grade offerings with average command is probably a #4/#5. If it's plus command, you're probably looking at a #4 that will have his stretches looking like a legit #3. Everything sort of builds from there. 

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Wouldn't be surprised if both he and Canning get some exposure at the MLB level this year. Perhaps a spot start here or there or even contributing out the pen later in the year to manage their innings + manage the innings of guys like Ohtani/Barria

 

With this 6-man rotation experiment going on, they'll be calling up/sending guys down every week and will need options during that 10-day window prior to being able to recall said player who they sent down. Suarez, Canning, etc gives them more enticing options to go do in those instances

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

hadnt noticed that. 

 

I repeat... he has a sub-1.00 FIP this season. 

 

I'm sure lots of crumby pitchers can sustain sub-1.00 ERAs over a random stretch. But a sub-1.00 FIP? That's genuinely impressive.

 

There's a decent chance he's doing something to get these results that's not showing up in the current scouting report. Any reports from scouts who have seen him in action this season?

 

Also - when I said he's worth considering owning in leagues where every team owns multiple prospects... I'm basically saying Suarez deserves serious consideration in leagues where something like 50+ prospects are owned.

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I don’t know about that.  50+ is still too shallow to own him IMO.  We all have different taste though so to each their own.  100+ for me but now that he’s in Triple A, proximity matters.

 

Thats got to suck for Taylor Ward.  His break out came out of nowhere.  He’s become quite interesting.

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Thought I'd chime in since I've seen Suarez pitch in person this year. His stuff has gotten a lot better. His FB is now 92-95, not 88-92. CU has progressed from an average to a plus pitch, there's a lot more bite to it this year. CH is still the same plus pitch it's always been. Command still excellent. I'm no scout, but his ceiling looks a lot more like a 2/3 than 4/5. 

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51 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah I am shocked he's not in CBS database.

Jose Soriano or Jose Suarez...who ya got??

 

Both ;)

 

But seriously,  mentioned somewhere else that it would be interesting to rank:

 

Canning

Soriano 

Suarez 

Barria

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