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Dylan Covey 2018 Outlook


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16 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Obviously some things depend on your settings, but a team as good as Cleveland getting to see a fastball thrower in close proximity back-to-back is not something I necessarily put in Covey's favor. 

I always subscribe to this very same theory with others as well so good point especially with covey 

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Well I'm starting him vs Cleveland today and hoping that the Sox can score some runs against the Tribe.  I know the Sox stink but it's a division game and Dylan has been dealing and shows no fear no matter who the opponent is....Go Sox!!!

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25 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Well this was a disaster. Clock has struck midnight. 

 

Sox kicked the ball around quite a bit in the 2nd. That, plus CLE literally just saw him (as anothers above had pointed out). I'm giving him another shot at being my SP6.

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2 hours ago, amcsoldier said:

 

Sox kicked the ball around quite a bit in the 2nd. That, plus CLE literally just saw him (as anothers above had pointed out). I'm giving him another shot at being my SP6.

 

Curious what you expect from Covey. I just don’t really get it personally. At BEST he is a low-whiff, primary fastball pitcher who can mitigate weakness by being a good pitcher, inducing ground balls, and limiting damage in the air, who still plays in one of the worst Home run parks (US Cell/GR) and for one of the worst teams/offenses. 

 

Limited K and W upside. Putting all the eggs in the ratio basket. I prefer my long term adds even in the back-end to have more upside, because what Covey is at best I can still probably stream by getting whatever Dereck Rodriguez has good matchups that week. 

 

Idk about now but a couple days ago Covey was closer to 15% where guys in excellent parks with better offenses and more k-upside like Andrew Suarez and John Lamb were closer to 3 %. Doesn’t make sense to me. 

 

Covey is at best a two category pitcher in a bad situation who’s ERA will probably get hurt by home park. Maybe he shocks the world and posts a 2.15 ERA but I won’t hold my breath and imo there are better horses to ride than someone who doesn’t miss bats and plays for the Sox.

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And again we’re not judging Covey as a pitcher or his ability to be a solid pitcher, but we’re judging his value as a fantasy option. If we’re comparing situations by Park+Offense, White Sox are right there with the Orioles as the worst in baseball. Lot of those Marlins teams have better parks. If a pitchers gonna not miss bats I need them to be on a winner and in a game park. At least one or the other.

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He's shown some modest improvement over the guaranteed slam dunk gas can he was last year. Really don't think there is much to see here- maybe an option against weak lineups but nothing to really get excited about. 

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8 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Curious what you expect from Covey. I just don’t really get it personally. At BEST he is a low-whiff, primary fastball pitcher who can mitigate weakness by being a good pitcher, inducing ground balls, and limiting damage in the air, who still plays in one of the worst Home run parks (US Cell/GR) and for one of the worst teams/offenses. 

 

 

To start, he induces grounders and soft contact. Admittedly, this is mostly based on my un-scientific analysis of simply watching most of his past few starts and seeing a lot of weak contact. And of that contact, there were more than a fair share of seeing-eye singles, corroborated by his slightly high .325 BABIP. Adding a little science to the "no hard hits" intuition: among SPs with >100 batted ball events, he's #6 on the list of fewest Barrels per PA.  

 

Plus, as you and others have pointed out, the uptick in velo is enticing (e.g. https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1007068267406594049 ). The sinker is excellent and the slider plays. The peripherals aren't screaming at me to run. He can get into the sixth inning. He's faced Cleveland three times in his past five starts, which is disadvantageous against any team but especially a tough opponent like the Indians. He's got RP eligibility. And lastly, the health issue seems to be behind him. 

 

The Ks aren't going to be consistent, and the wins will be sparse. But, in a deep league such as mine (points, 16 teams, 130-140 SPs rostered), pickings are slim and I'm after guys who, frankly, will just get me a QS and some positive points. He's useful at least until everyone's injured starters return (Kershaw, Buehler and/or Tanaka for me), and hopefully for a time after that too when the matchups are right. Finally, Suarez was already owned when I added Covey ;).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I was watching the game and even the Sox announcers didn't want to speculate. But the trainer came out and he left without even attempting another pitch. Probably have to find out after the game.

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