Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

June Closer Thread 2018


smeeze
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I'm not a big Dyson fan by any means, but I think everyone just has recency bias more than deja vu.  2017 was Dyson's only 'bad' year, and the only year he wilted under pressure.  In 2016 he took over the closer role early in the year and pitched very well all year for a Rangers team that went to the playoffs, a year after being a primary setup man effectively for the playoff-bound Rangers.  And in the limited time the Rangers stayed in the playoffs, he was also effective and composed.

 

The start of 2017 he clearly lost his confidence, but by July he was washed back up in SF and closing for them fairly effectively, and held the job ROS.  

 

He's far from elite or a top option, but comments about how Dyson is the epitome of SAGNOF are just full of recency bias.  He's proven he can hold up under pressure just fine in the past, and there are far worse arms out there pitching the 9th.

 

 

Ding ding ding, can't believe there's like a full page of "I knew Melancon is the closer!" when Dyson pitched 3 consecutive days.  Obviously he wasn't available.  There's a small chance that Bochy is this fickle, but I wouldn't go dropping Dyson for Melancon just yet.  Dyson was definitely not available to pitch a 4th day in a row, and I'd be very surprised if Bochy made the switch after 1 blown save to a guy who can't even pitch back to back days and whose arm is held together with popsicle sticks and glue.  

Seven blown saves in 2017 is "fairly effective[]?"  I beg to differ.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Magoo said:

Seven blown saves in 2017 is "fairly effective[]?"  I beg to differ.

 

You're counting his early 2017 with Texas, which I said was horrendous.  What I said was he was fairly effective for SF from July onward.  14 saves on 17 chances in SF, 82% success rate, which puts him right in between Brad Hand's 80% in 2017 and Chapman's 84%.  Like I said, he wasn't and isn't going to be great, but he's relatively effective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

I hear you.  Seems like you have one concern (M's health).  I have this argument:

- Melancon was bought and paid for for one reason and one reason only: be the closer he has been for the past three years.

- Dyson is an above-average bullpen trade piece that we stole from the Rangers.  He closed last season (after Melancon got injured) and did a very shaky job.  I watched most of the season and he got very lucky, allowed nearly a hit per inning, and didn't inspire anything close to confidence.

- Who got to close this season?  Not Dyson, but Strickland.  So Dyson is not the Giants closer but a fill-in guy who may or may not do the job.

 

Let me put it a different way: other than health, why wouldn't it be Melancon's job?  And if your answer is only health then you should be buying Melancon because he is looking healed and gets the ASB to boot.

 

 

 

Melancon's 162 game average for his career: 2.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 25 SV

Other than last season in which he was injured, the last time he threw an ERA over 2.23 was in 2012.

 

Yeah he has an injury concern but that's just about it.  He gets a week or two to get the feel and the ASB to continue to heal.  I fail to see why he won't be the guy he's literally always been (top 10 closer, if not higher).

 

I think you're underestimating how bad Melancon's injury was / is - a muscle literally died and had to be bump-started back to life by a stem cell injection.  The injury concerns with Melancon aren't just that he's considered injury prone, it's that we still don't know if he's going to ever get back up to full strength again.  The answer can just be "only health" at this point because he hasn't even thrown on back to back days yet.  Is he going to ask the team to make sure they lose at least every other day for him?

 

I agree his career stats are great, but so far he's a shell of his former self.  His velocity is still down, and batters are hitting over 40% hard-hit rate off him.  Walks are up, grounders are down.  Who knows, maybe he does end up making a full recovery, but at this rate he just needs to get strong enough to throw back to backs, so I think it's a little premature to be talking top-10 closer and referencing career stats.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

You're counting his early 2017 with Texas, which I said was horrendous.  What I said was he was fairly effective for SF from July onward.  14 saves on 17 chances in SF, 82% success rate, which puts him right in between Brad Hand's 80% in 2017 and Chapman's 84%.  Like I said, he wasn't and isn't going to be great, but he's relatively effective.

Why are you discounting his Texas numbers?  It happened.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I think you're underestimating how bad Melancon's injury was / is - a muscle literally died and had to be bump-started back to life by a stem cell injection.  The injury concerns with Melancon aren't just that he's considered injury prone, it's that we still don't know if he's going to ever get back up to full strength again.  The answer can just be "only health" at this point because he hasn't even thrown on back to back days yet.  Is he going to ask the team to make sure they lose at least every other day for him?

 

I agree his career stats are great, but so far he's a shell of his former self.  His velocity is still down, and batters are hitting over 40% hard-hit rate off him.  Walks are up, grounders are down.  Who knows, maybe he does end up making a full recovery, but at this rate he just needs to get strong enough to throw back to backs, so I think it's a little premature to be talking top-10 closer and referencing career stats.  

 

Fair enough although I doubt he would be pitching if the muscle was not 100%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Magoo said:

Why are you discounting his Texas numbers?  It happened.

 

I never discounted his Texas numbers!  I'm not trying to be rude, but go back and read the whole post because I don't think you've fully comprehended what I was saying and what my point was.

 

The post I quoted said that this was basically "here we go again" with Dyson and that he traditionally crumbles under pressure.  I said that's not really fair because the only example of that is first half of 2017 with Texas.  He was primary setup guy in 2015 for a playoff team and was good, closer for that playoff team in 2016, and was good.  Second half of 2017 he closed with SF and was acceptable.  

 

So the whole point is that I'm saying April/May 2017 in Texas did happen, but that's about the only time in Dyson's career he's crumbled like that.  So to say he always fails under pressure is discounting 4.5 years of good for 0.5 of bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I never discounted his Texas numbers!  I'm not trying to be rude, but go back and read the whole post because I don't think you've fully comprehended what I was saying and what my point was.

 

The post I quoted said that this was basically "here we go again" with Dyson and that he traditionally crumbles under pressure.  I said that's not really fair because the only example of that is first half of 2017 with Texas.  He was primary setup guy in 2015 for a playoff team and was good, closer for that playoff team in 2016, and was good.  Second half of 2017 he closed with SF and was acceptable.  

 

So the whole point is that I'm saying April/May 2017 in Texas did happen, but that's about the only time in Dyson's career he's crumbled like that.  So to say he always fails under pressure is discounting 4.5 years of good for 0.5 of bad.

No offense taken.  I'm nit-picking but you are discounting that the main argument against Dyson is his performance (or lack thereof) as a closer vs. a high-leverage reliever.  See Tony Watson closing numbers vs. career numbers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Fair enough although I doubt he would be pitching if the muscle was not 100%

 

I think it's more a case of the muscle is gaining strength back and he can throw without pain, but I don't think it's back at the same level of strength it was pre-injury.  He's still not throwing as hard or effectively as he did pre-injury.  I also wouldn't call someone 100% if they can't pitch back to back days.

 

I'm not trying to argue that Melancon will fail or never be good again, but he's still not his old self, and he's still a ways off from Bochy loosening the reigns and letting him pitch whenever a save chance comes up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Magoo said:

No offense taken.  I'm nit-picking but you are discounting that the main argument against Dyson is his performance (or lack thereof) as a closer vs. a high-leverage reliever.  See Tony Watson closing numbers vs. career numbers.

 

Career-wise with Dyson, we're basically talking about 8-9 months of solid closing (good ratios in line with career numbers, decent SV%) vs 2 months of bad closing.  Watson has never had a successful run of any kind as a closer, never mind a whole season of it.  There are definitely pitchers that lack the mentality or whatever it is to be a closer, but I don't think Dyson falls into that category.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Career-wise with Dyson, we're basically talking about 8-9 months of solid closing (good ratios in line with career numbers, decent SV%) vs 2 months of bad closing.  Watson has never had a successful run of any kind as a closer, never mind a whole season of it.  There are definitely pitchers that lack the mentality or whatever it is to be a closer, but I don't think Dyson falls into that category.

I choose to discount his closing numbers with the Giants last year because the Giants were so far out of it when he took over.  They're contending this year.  The more pressure, the more he wilts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I choose to discount his closing numbers with the Giants last year because the Giants were so far out of it when he took over.  They're contending this year.  The more pressure, the more he wilts. 

18 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I never discounted his Texas numbers!  I'm not trying to be rude, but go back and read the whole post because I don't think you've fully comprehended what I was saying and what my point was.

 

The post I quoted said that this was basically "here we go again" with Dyson and that he traditionally crumbles under pressure.  I said that's not really fair because the only example of that is first half of 2017 with Texas.  He was primary setup guy in 2015 for a playoff team and was good, closer for that playoff team in 2016, and was good.  Second half of 2017 he closed with SF and was acceptable.  

 

So the whole point is that I'm saying April/May 2017 in Texas did happen, but that's about the only time in Dyson's career he's crumbled like that.  So to say he always fails under pressure is discounting 4.5 years of good for 0.5 of bad.

 

@Magoo, you claim Giants are contending this year. @handyandy86 said Dyson was the closer for a playoff team in 2016. Are you going to discount his closing numbers with Texas in 2016 as well?

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, chrisrfu said:

 

@Magoo, you claim Giants are contending this year. @handyandy86 said Dyson was the closer for a playoff team in 2016. Are you going to discount his closing numbers with Texas in 2016 as well?

 

Not exactly.  He still had 5 blown saves that year, 5th lowest k/9 of all closers that year, and an 85% strand rate.  Lots of guys have had one good season closing.  When it comes with a crappy arsenal like Dyson's, it often doesn't last.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

IMO If both guys are rested they are going to Melancon for the save. If there is a save op and Melancon has already pitched the day before they are going Dyson.

 

 

Me personally have no clue who Bochy will call tonight if there is a save possibility and I have to think neither does Bochy. 

 

I just tickled that MM is back in June, when a lot of talk on these threads he was finished. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

IMO If both guys are rested they are going to Melancon for the save. If there is a save op and Melancon has already pitched the day before they are going Dyson.

 

This is kind of what I'm thinking too, but we'll see. If the Giants do have a save opp tonight I'll be a little surprised if they do go to Melancon. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, fourstar said:

 

I think it is still Dyson currently. They don't want Melancon pitching on consecutive days right now but wouldn't be surprised if he takes over eventually.

 

3 hours ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

This seems like a bit of a hot take. Dude can't even pitch back to back days right now and we don't even know if it's currently his job or Dyson's (since he was unavailable last night).

 

These.  Not even commenting on the concern of Melancon’s health, the FACT is he has yet to pitch consecutive days.  Also, Dyson was unavailable which further muddies the water in the short-term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

This is kind of what I'm thinking too, but we'll see. If the Giants do have a save opp tonight I'll be a little surprised if they do go to Melancon. 

 

 

It pains me that I agree so much in this thread with a Dodgers fan :P lol jk though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What current closers do you guys think will be dealt before the deadline?  I think the possibilities are:

 

Familia

Britton

Brach

Soria

Greene

Hand

Barraclough

Rodney

 

Am I missing anyone?   It's a crazy year for closers.  With all the FA's to be, the tanking teams, and so few teams actually competing for a playoff spot, I think most of the closers that end up getting traded will find themselves like Herrera has.  As set up men.  I'm curious what current hand cuffs would be good investment adds for when one of the above is moved and the closer role is vacated? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dyson stinks, but he kinda got porked in that last chance he had where he got pulled.  I believe it was Hernandez who lost a ball in centerfield that was a sure fire out, and he had worked 3 straight days I believe.  That being said, I don't think he's a guy I'd want to own. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

Greene isn’t closing on a contender. 

Just in case he didn't here you, tell him again...……………….

Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

Greene isn’t closing on a contender. 

 

Just in case he didn't here you, tell him again...……………….

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

What current closers do you guys think will be dealt before the deadline?  I think the possibilities are:

 

Familia

Britton

Brach

Soria

Greene

Hand

Barraclough

Rodney

 

Am I missing anyone?   It's a crazy year for closers.  With all the FA's to be, the tanking teams, and so few teams actually competing for a playoff spot, I think most of the closers that end up getting traded will find themselves like Herrera has.  As set up men.  I'm curious what current hand cuffs would be good investment adds for when one of the above is moved and the closer role is vacated? 

The top three are locks to go and go soon imo.  Soria too, though I bet the extra year of control will have the Sox asking for too much.  Greene is tied to the Tigers performance, so we may have to wait longer on him.  

 

Hand is definitely the wild card.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...