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Seth Lugo 2018 Outlook


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He’s been pretty great in relief so far this year and I believe this was his 2nd start since May 31st. 

His fip(2.62) and xfip(3.12) are low, as is his Siera(3.04), each good for about top 20 of pitchers with a min. 30ip. He Displays an average 10% swstr% and very solid 19.5% k-bb. However his 87% LOB% and BABIP(.239) seem a little unsustainable. 

He seems to be finding success with his fastball and curveball, fangraphs showing these pitches values at 6.1 and 5.7 runs above average, respectively. I remember last year or maybe 2 years ago hearing his Curve had one of the best spin rates in the league.. actually according to baseballsavant he is 3rd in avg curve spin rate at 3097 rpm over the last 2 years (min. 200results). He also has thrown his curve 31% of the time this year!

Now Looking at xstats:

Min of 150 PA:

12th in xwOBA

19th in xBA

28th in xSLG

He is currently outperforming each of these but nonetheless he is in the top tier or two here. 

After his 6 SO innings with 8ks, 0BBs and just 2 hits against NYY, I am definitely taking a flier. Good add for SP needy teams at the least.

Anyone have any idea as to his status in the rotation? Any chance he stays in after syndergaard returns? Vargas and Wheeler don’t seem to deserve to stay. 

Kind of excited to see where this goes, maybe he breaks out this year maybe he does the same as prior years: Solid few starts and then falls apart. 

Edited by Csiebert5
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I disagree on Wheeler not deserving to stay. He's been a lot better lately. Vargas on the other hand should head to the pen. Granted today was just one outing but with all the peripherals mentioned above, Lugo looks really good. I think he's worth a spec add in deep leagues. Particularly in points leagues he has value even as a reliever. 

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Yes, Wheeler has been pitching a lot better lately. Should Lugo supplant anyone, it should be Vargas. Wheeler also has something of a future whereas Vargas is established mediocrity. 

 

All I want is for the Mets to find a role for Lugo and leave him in it. Some weeks back, I picked him up in my 15-team roto league for the quality work out of the pen. I haven't used him in either start because I didn't think he'd be stretched out enough to give me a quality start. Of course he does it tonight, in splendid fashion, against the Yankees of all teams. 

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14 minutes ago, Gorilla Steeze said:

The fact that Vargas was warming up in the 9th is pretty informative.  They’ve also been stretching out Lugo over his last three starts. With the entire team underperforming, I’d be willing to bet that Mickey rewards Lugo with more starts. 

Thanks for mentioning that. That would seem to infer Lugo at least gets another turn in the rotation.. that would line him up to face face the Dbacks on the road. MLB at bat app is still showing Vargas for tomorrow though...

EDIT: Tuesday, not tomorrow 

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8 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

15Ks and 1BB in 11 IPs.  Last two starts will be @ARI, @COL with a two start week next - buy low or even get for free perhaps right now with upside

Just got a hard blasting to the Dbacks, if you believe may want to wait to get tomorrow’s blasting out of the way first. 

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