2018 Biggest Busts

[RMJ_12 1,737]

Who are your biggest busts for the 2018 season?  Here are mine:

 

Lesean McCoy - bad QB, bad o-line, 30 years old, huge career workload

Jordan Howard - less carries, more passing in Chicago

Davante Adams - added Graham, 3 WR's in draft.  Just not that talented

Adam Thielen - not worth his adp, Diggs will be better

Deshaun Watson - 3rd round?  You kidding me?

Jay Ajayi - never reached 30 snaps in a game with the Eagles last year

Alex Collins - short leash and a fumbling problem

Tom Brady - lost Cooks, lost Edelman (4 games), drafted a RB 1st round, 41 years old, 5th round ADP

Jordy Nelson - doesn't have what it takes anymore unless he gets moved inside

Evan Engram - targets will drastically drop with Odell, Barkley, and Shepard all around.

Jamaal Williams - Jones will take the job, Ty Montgomery still has a role.

LeGarrette Blount - didn't trade up in the draft for a RB to start Blount

Jared Goff - 10th QB off the board, not that good

[SharkSwimmer 5,003]

Love all those.  I will add:

 

Jarvis Landry--precipitous drop in volume for this compiler.

 

Marshawn Lynch--Doug Martin signing a very dark cloud on the horizon.

 

Christian McCaffrey--last year's GM is gone.  CJ Anderson is here.

 

Jordan Reed--talented but injury waiting to happen.

 

Drew Brees--running game and defense continue to rise.  Brees enters game manager stage of career, never recovers former volume.

 

Demaryius Thomas--Case Keenum's errant darts no career savior for this declining player.

[Axe Elf 2,540]

[lolcopter 7,915]

anyone on the Raiders

[JSA2422 1,604]

Saquon Barkley - lots of bad karma has been accrued via this forum, very unfortunate for him. 

[lolcopter 7,915]

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Demaryius Thomas--Case Keenum's errant darts no career savior for this declining player.

 

Keenum’s 67.6 completion percentage was second overall in the league last season after only Drew Brees. If you’re gonna hate on DT at least use logic that makes sense, like Sanders being a better receiver 

Edited June 12, 2018 by lolcopter

[joshua18 7,039]

Julio Jones

Dalvin Cook

Lesean McCoy

JuJu Smith Schuster

 

[lolcopter 7,915]

both Minnesota WRs will fail to deliver on ADP

[Axe Elf 2,540]

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Lesean McCoy - bad QB, bad o-line, 30 years old, huge career workload

 

You mean exactly like last year (other than being a year older, of course), when he had 59 catches, 1,586 combined yards and 8 TDs?

 

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Jordan Howard - less carries, more passing in Chicago

 

Having a credible passing attack is just as likely to create more space for Howard to operate.  He was already averaging over 4 yards per carry, even with defenders crowding the box.

 

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Davante Adams - added Graham, 3 WR's in draft.  Just not that talented

 

And yet over the past two years, Adams has the 9th-most PPR fantasy points among WRs, both playing second fiddle to Jordy with Rodgers at QB, and as the #1 WR for a crappy QB.

 

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Deshaun Watson - 3rd round?  You kidding me?

 

You can probably get him in the 4th, and there's just no downside to drafting him.  You'll still have the same Matt Ryan in the 14th round to back him up in case he gets hurt again, and if he doesn't get hurt, he's averaging 10 fantasy points more per week than the next-highest scoring QB--and about 15 more fantasy points per week than the field of QB1s.  There are just so many sleepers at RB and WR this year that it doesn't make sense to pass on a potential league-winner in the 4th just so you can get Alex Collins or Kenyan Drake that round over guys that will be there in the next couple of rounds--Jay Ajayi, Rashaad Penny, or even Chris Thompson (in PPR leagues).  At WR, there are guys like Juju Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Marvin Jones and Pierre Garcon waiting if you take Watson over Fitzgerald or Diggs in the 4th.  I'm usually all about waiting on a QB, but when you can take a swing for the fences at little to no real cost--you do it.

 

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Jay Ajayi - never reached 30 snaps in a game with the Eagles last year

 

Yet he still averaged a stellar 5.8 yards per carry, and he had a run of 10 yards or more in every game he played for them.  Blount is gone now, Sproles is coming off a major knee injury and received his AARP card this spring--and the coaches are all saying that Ajayi is the man this year.  Corey Clement will be a change of pace back, but Ajayi is going to get enough work to be a solid RB2.

 

2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Jordy Nelson - doesn't have what it takes anymore unless he gets moved inside

 

He still had "what it takes" last year when Rodgers was the QB; in 4 games with Rodgers, Jordy averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game.  It's hard to say how he will translate to Oakland, but Carr is no slouch--he resurrected Michael Crabtree's career.  I'd say the jury is still out on Jordy--and as an 8th-9th round pick, he can't be THAT much of a bust if he has any startable production at all.

[SharkSwimmer 5,003]

28 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

Keenum’s 67.6 completion percentage was second overall in the league last season after only Drew Brees. If you’re gonna hate on DT at least use logic that makes sense, like Sanders being a better receiver 

Keenum's crappy performance in 2017 was disguised by many things.  Having an above average D to keep them in games.  Tons of high-percentage passes.  And having an uber-talented pass catching group who turned his errant throws into spectacular catches through sheer heart and athleticism.

 

Keenum will not have all that going for him in Denver.  So I expect Demaryius to continue his steady downwards slide.

[lolcopter 7,915]

4 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Keenum's crappy performance in 2017 was disguised by many things.  Having an above average D to keep them in games.  Tons of high-percentage passes.  And having an uber-talented pass catching group who turned his errant throws into spectacular catches through sheer heart and athleticism.

 

Keenum will not have all that going for him in Denver.  So I expect Demaryius to continue his steady downwards slide.

 

You have no numbers to back up this statement at all. You’re just a salty Diggs owner who will inevitably overdraft him, again

 

DT on the other hand has been playing with QB30 or worse ever since Manning left. We’ll see how it shakes out

 

 

lol yeah good defense and high percentage throws are completely out of the conversation in Denver. Give me a break

Edited June 12, 2018 by lolcopter

[Rolling Thunder 2,095]

I believe solid research confirms that even the so-called fantasy experts miss on 50% of their projections/predictions.  I bet none of us here beats the "50% rule," if we're totally honest.

 

So as much as we'd like to pretend that our valuations will prove relatively reliable, the truth is a whole bunch of players that we feel strongly will succeed in 2018 will actually bust.  On the flip side, a bunch of players we're convinced will fail will actually succceed.

 

A thread like this is a helpful reality check while we grind out posts singing the praises of our favorite players.

 

Edited June 12, 2018 by Rolling Thunder

[dashoe 6,464]

1 minute ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I believe solid research confirms that even the so-called fantasy experts miss on 50% of their projections/predictions.  I bet none of us here beats the "50% rule," if we're totally honest.

 

 

 

Speak for yourself guy. I'm a winner and i don't mean a winner like so called experts who play in 100 leagues so they 'win' every year. I play at the most 2. The game is very time consuming so i focus on being right about my picks more than wrong

[joshua18 7,039]

31 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I believe solid research confirms that even the so-called fantasy experts miss on 50% of their projections/predictions.  I bet none of us here beats the "50% rule," if we're totally honest.

 

So as much as we'd like to pretend that our valuations will prove relatively reliable, the truth is a whole bunch of players that we feel strongly will succeed in 2018 will actually bust.  On the flip side, a bunch of players we're convinced will fail will actually succceed.

 

A thread like this is a helpful reality check while we grind out posts singing the praises of our favorite players.

 

 

Agreed. Even the most accurate forecasters are wrong 40% of the time. Makes it wise to take multiple shots at unheralded potential future studs in the late rounds of drafts.

[timexsocialclub 1,400]

1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

Julio Jones

Dalvin Cook

Lesean McCoy

JuJu Smith Schuster

 

Cook? Is this because you think he's injury-prone?

[Lord_Varys 4,626]

59 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

You mean exactly like last year (other than being a year older, of course), when he had 59 catches, 1,586 combined yards and 8 TDs?

 

Lost 3 really good offensive linemen.

Lost a dual threat QB, who can also throw better than any of the QBs they brought in.

Worst WR corps in the league.

 

DND.

[joshua18 7,039]

50 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

Cook? Is this because you think he's injury-prone?

 

He'sbeing drafted as a three-down RB who will get all the GL carries...don't expect that to happen given his fragility and how good Murray was last year.

[Axe Elf 2,540]

1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

Lost 3 really good offensive linemen.

Lost a dual threat QB, who can also throw better than any of the QBs they brought in.

Worst WR corps in the league.

 

Um, no...  they didn't lose 3 "really good" offensive linemen, or they might not have ranked 27th in run blocking and 31st in pass blocking for 2017.  It doesn't really matter who they lost or who they signed; there's not much room for anything but improvement.  In the worst case scenario, they remain as bad as they were--as I said, just like last year.  In any case, the Bills themselves didn't seem too concerned about their losses--even after all the turnover, they only selected one offensive lineman in the draft--and that was a G in the 5th round.

 

They also apparently believe that they have upgraded at QB as well, and the WR corps is better now, with Kelvin Benjamin and Jeremy Kerley, than it was without them.  If I'm being nitpicky, I'd say that Dallas, Miami, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Washington, Carolina, Seattle, and the Jets are all in contention with Buffalo for the worst WR corps in the league--but only a couple of them have an RB as good as Buffalo has.

 

Edited June 12, 2018 by Axe Elf

[dmb3684 4,645]

David Johnson

[Lord_Varys 4,626]

28 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

there's not much room for anything but improvement. 

 

"Nowhere to go but up" is not a strong endorsement. 

[RMJ_12 1,737]

2 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

You mean exactly like last year (other than being a year older, of course), when he had 59 catches, 1,586 combined yards and 8 TDs?

No I mean an even worse QB and offensive line than 2017.  They lost 3 starting offensive linemen.  Do you know who the replacements are?

 

How many times has 29 and 30 years old been a big difference for a RB's production?

[RMJ_12 1,737]

2 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

You can probably get him in the 4th, and there's just no downside to drafting him.  You'll still have the same Matt Ryan in the 14th round to back him up in case he gets hurt again, and if he doesn't get hurt, he's averaging 10 fantasy points more per week than the next-highest scoring QB--and about 15 more fantasy points per week than the field of QB1s.  There are just so many sleepers at RB and WR this year that it doesn't make sense to pass on a potential league-winner in the 4th just so you can get Alex Collins or Kenyan Drake that round over guys that will be there in the next couple of rounds--Jay Ajayi, Rashaad Penny, or even Chris Thompson (in PPR leagues).  At WR, there are guys like Juju Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Marvin Jones and Pierre Garcon waiting if you take Watson over Fitzgerald or Diggs in the 4th.  I'm usually all about waiting on a QB, but when you can take a swing for the fences at little to no real cost--you do it.

The 2nd highest TD rate since 1990 is nowhere near repeatable.

[SharkSwimmer 5,003]

3 hours ago, lolcopter said:

 

You have no numbers to back up this statement at all. 

 

I am looking beyond the numbers.  Keenum was bad last year, even though he won a lot of games.  I choose to reject completion percentage as the complete measure of the quality of a quarterback's season.  You seem kinda stuck on it.

[Axe Elf 2,540]

1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

"Nowhere to go but up" is not a strong endorsement. 

 

If it were the Strong Endorsements thread, I'd be concerned.

[lolcopter 7,915]

34 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I am looking beyond the numbers.  Keenum was bad last year, even though he won a lot of games.  I choose to reject completion percentage as the complete measure of the quality of a quarterback's season.  You seem kinda stuck on it.

 

If you think Keenum was a bad QB in 2017 you need to get your eyes checked