2018 Biggest Busts

[SharkSwimmer 5,072]

2 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Oh darn. He scores 40 yard TDs. What a travesty. 

 

I always avoid those types of players. ?

And if this was 2012, I would agree with you.  Thomas isn't scoring TDs at a high enough rate from any distance now that he's on the downside of his career.

[SharkSwimmer 5,072]

1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

I'm pretty sure anyone in the league can return round 1 potential just as anyone can lay a dud on the season

So just pick names out of a hat and there is your fantasy team?  Might as well autodraft.  We're going to do better than that.

 

What I said is actually a little bit different.  I want to pick in the fifth round in 2018 players who will be first or second round picks in 2019.  That's not quite the same thing.

 

Say Lynch has a career renaissance under John Gruden and goes for 1,500 combined yards and 10 TDs.  Did he return 1st round value?  Probably.  Is it likely enough that he will do it again in 2019 to be a 1st or 2nd rounder?  Probably not.  Lynch is too old and has too many red flags.

[Hawkeye21 752]

Correct me if I have this wrong, people don’t think DT is worth taking at his ADP?  This is the best value he’s had in years. You can all go right ahead and avoid him. 

[bhawks489 3,679]

4 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

So just pick names out of a hat and there is your fantasy team?  Might as well autodraft.  We're going to do better than that.

 

What I said is actually a little bit different.  I want to pick in the fifth round in 2018 players who will be first or second round picks in 2019.  That's not quite the same thing.

 

Say Lynch has a career renaissance under John Gruden and goes for 1,500 combined yards and 10 TDs.  Did he return 1st round value?  Probably.  Is it likely enough that he will do it again in 2019 to be a 1st or 2nd rounder?  Probably not.  Lynch is too old and has too many red flags.

i never said pick a name out of a hat lol.

 

and what happens if NO ONE in the 5th provides 1st round or second round value?

 

i guess I don't the point of the fifth round pick and what value they will have next year. That round will likely be determined how the previous Rounds played out

 

also adp is different between sites and will vary by people reaching for payers 

Edited June 20, 2018 by bhawks489

[Gohawks 10,669]

1 hour ago, Axe Elf said:

 

And "reasons" are why Sony Michel and Amari Cooper will be 1st round picks next year?

 

Damn, I made MYSELF guffaw there.

New England has shown the ability to support an RB1 numerous times and with Michels style, Brady’s age, and even lack of competition on the depth chart there is a chance Michel can have a stellar season. 

 

Prior to last year Cooper had 2 1,000 yard seasons go start his career and has shown ability to produce. New coach can help him.

 

By the way, those two are the two players I’m least confident in from that list and are actually DND for me because I don’t like them. Again, the quesiton was based on ceiling not on how likely they are to produce or what their projected output is. 

[joshua18 7,041]

4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Back when Demaryius Thomas used to score touchdowns, many of them were long TDs.  Thomas has never been very good in the red zone.

 

That's not true when he's had a good QB...you don't score double-digit TDs 3 seasons in a row (with a 90/1400/10 floor) by being a bad RZ WR. 

 

Julio Jones is an example of a bad RZ WR despite having a good QB his entire career. Not DT.

[SharkSwimmer 5,072]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Correct me if I have this wrong, people don’t think DT is worth taking at his ADP?  This is the best value he’s had in years. You can all go right ahead and avoid him. 

And next year Thomas's adp will be even lower, so you'll have that going for you.

[Axe Elf 2,540]

1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

New England has shown the ability to support an RB1 numerous times and with Michels style, Brady’s age, and even lack of competition on the depth chart there is a chance Michel can have a stellar season. 

 

[Hawkeye21 752]

1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And next year Thomas's adp will be even lower, so you'll have that going for you.

 

If he’s still getting me over 80 catches, 900 yards and 5 TDS then I’ll be happy.  He’s been one of the most consistent WRs even with crap QB play 

[Panthers8912 713]

This thread got funny lol. DT isn’t a bust candidate unless injury hits (knock on wood) not sure if that was said or if people just don’t like him at his adp. If keenum is half as good as he was last year dt will be top 15

[TPowell 70]

14 hours ago, Gohawks said:

New England has shown the ability to support an RB1 numerous times and with Michels style, Brady’s age, and even lack of competition on the depth chart there is a chance Michel can have a stellar season. 

 

Prior to last year Cooper had 2 1,000 yard seasons go start his career and has shown ability to produce. New coach can help him.

 

By the way, those two are the two players I’m least confident in from that list and are actually DND for me because I don’t like them. Again, the quesiton was based on ceiling not on how likely they are to produce or what their projected output is. 

 

NE has the ability to support a RB1 AND a RB2 in PPR leagues and has done so for the past 3+ seasons.

[Hawkeye21 752]

8 minutes ago, TPowell said:

 

NE has the ability to support a RB1 AND a RB2 in PPR leagues and has done so for the past 3+ seasons.

 

The problem is that we never know which ones of the 4 they have on the roster.

[cohenstantinople 1,833]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

The problem is that we never know which ones of the 4 they have on the roster.

 

And the principal RB(s) in New England change according to the Bilichick's menstrual cycle.

[TPowell 70]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

The problem is that we never know which ones of the 4 they have on the roster.

 

Pretty simple this season. Burkhead was the 1A with Lewis last year. Michel will probably get more volume than Lewis did but Burkhead will still be an easy RB2

[Hawkeye21 752]

Just now, TPowell said:

 

Pretty simple this season. Burkhead was the 1A with Lewis last year. Michel will probably get more volume than Lewis did but Burkhead will still be an easy RB2

 

I can't imagine it's going to be simple at all as long as the same coach is running the team.

[TPowell 70]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I can't imagine it's going to be simple at all as long as the same coach is running the team.

 

Fact is the NE RB's are always undervalued. You just have to have some common sense and patience. I had Burkhead and White last year and would love to have Burkhead and Michel with 5th and 8th rounders this year

[Hawkeye21 752]

2 minutes ago, TPowell said:

 

Fact is the NE RB's are always undervalued. You just have to have some common sense and patience. I had Burkhead and White last year and would love to have Burkhead and Michel with 5th and 8th rounders this year

 

I hate the struggle of trying to decide which one to play.  I feel like I always start the wrong player in those situations.  Last year I have Murray and Henry on a team and it was frustrating.  RB committees drive me crazy.

[cohenstantinople 1,833]

8 minutes ago, TPowell said:

 

Pretty simple this season. Burkhead was the 1A with Lewis last year. Michel will probably get more volume than Lewis did but Burkhead will still be an easy RB2

 

One screw-up, arriving to practice late, a double-take at Gisele's butt, whatever. Nothing is easy with New England except Brady and Gronk.

 

Remember Jonas Gray?  (If your answer is "No," it proves my point; if your answer is "Yes," you get what I mean.)

[TPowell 70]

3 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

One screw-up, arriving to practice late, a double-take at Gisele's butt, whatever. Nothing is easy with New England except Brady and Gronk.

 

Remember Jonas Gray?  (If your answer is "No," it proves my point; if your answer is "Yes," you get what I mean.)

 

A lot of filler. I'll post a link below. I'm not a NE fan at all (not any fan really) but NE backs especially pass catchers are relatively safe

 

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/11/24/jonas-gray-was-not-benched-just-for-being-late-and-other-leftover-patriots-thoughts/

[TPowell 70]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I hate the struggle of trying to decide which one to play.  I feel like I always start the wrong player in those situations.  Last year I have Murray and Henry on a team and it was frustrating.  RB committees drive me crazy.

 

True but the issue there was they were both similar type players really (more so than a guy like Burkhead who can do a little bit of everything)

[Hawkeye21 752]

6 minutes ago, TPowell said:

 

A lot of filler. I'll post a link below. I'm not a NE fan at all (not any fan really) but NE backs especially pass catchers are relatively safe

 

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/11/24/jonas-gray-was-not-benched-just-for-being-late-and-other-leftover-patriots-thoughts/

 

How many of the pass catching backs for NE were projected to do well and finished well.  I know a pass catching back always does well but it never seems to be the one originally expected to.

[pastorofmuppets2 10,807]

qb - Wentz

 

rb - Howard/Ajayi

 

wr - AJ/DT/Diggs

 

te - Engram

 

honorable mention - the Muscle Crampster (of course).

 

HTH 

[TPowell 70]

I'd love to see how DT becomes a bust at a 5th-6th round ADP without injuries destroying him or the rest of the entire offense. Some of that list is pretty good though potentially

[Rolling Thunder 2,095]

Back to predicting real busts.

 

Tell me it doesn't seem like the whole NE cabal has a different feel to it this off-season?  Brady going Oprah, Gronk seeming disinterested for real, Solder and Lewis hitting the road, etc.  I know everyone cries heresey when a big dip from Brady and/or Gronk is suggested, but that's exactly what I am here to do.  2018 is the year these two guys let us down.

 

And now on to my next nominee.  Spoiler alert, @Impreza178, please immediately switch to another thread.

 

If things get real messy in Orchard Park, would it surprise any of us to see Shady check out for the season?  Shady has no help around him, and his 2019 contract year (his last one before becoming an UFA) is meaningless (the Bills can save $6.5 million in cash by letting him go at age 31).

 

With a mid-2nd ADP currently (FFC 12 team PPR), I say Shady bites lots of owners hard this season.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Rolling Thunder

[SharkSwimmer 5,072]

Maybe DT won't be a pure "bust" taken in the fifth, but he very well could be kind of "meh."  850 -70-5 type of season.  If that's not a bust, fair enough.  Won't be happening on my roster, that's for sure.

 

As for Shady, yeah.  2017 is going to go into the books as his last impact season.  Better to get off the train one or two stops early as opposed to too late.